World Oil Production Peaked in 2008 ?  

Posted by Big Gav in

The Oil Drum has a post from Tony (ace) on his latest megaprojects analysis, from which he concludes that 2008 is the peak oil production point (I remain somewhat skeptical, but I'm in the minority amongst TOD editors and at least Tony makes all his numbers publically available, which is a rare act of transparency in this business) - World Oil Production Peaked in 2008.

World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources. ...

My forecasting method aggregates forecasts from all oil producing countries, taking into account forecast field production profiles from existing and new oil projects. Colin Campbell uses a similar forecasting method but does not directly take into account the timing of new oil projects. Nevertheless, as peak oil has passed, new oil projects can only serve to slow the production decline rate. Consequently, Campbell has also stated that peak oil was in 2008, excluding bio-fuels. Another method used to estimate the peak production year is to use this oil project database to derive totals of future annual supply additions. As these additions are insufficient to offset future existing field decline, this indicates that oil production peaked in 2008, excluding bio-fuels.

1 comments

Anonymous   says 6:22 AM

Ace had a previous post about Saudi Arabia having peaked in 2005. This, plus his most recent work, both have flawed statistics and rely on flawed assumptions. I can give you more info. later but I'm very busy right now - at least until Friday evening.

You're wise not to put too much stock into Ace's hypothesis.

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