The South Australian government continues to lead Australian states on the way towards 100% renewable energy, announcing they will build the world's largest lithium ion battery storage facility using Tesla batteries (with Elon Musk promising the storage will be free if not delivered within 100 days) - Tesla to supply world's biggest battery for SA, but what is it and how will it work?.

An array of lithium ion batteries will be connected to the Hornsdale wind farm, which is currently under construction in SA. It will look like a field of boxes, each housing Tesla commercial-scale Powerpack batteries. The array will be capable of an output of 100 megawatts (MW) of power at a time and the huge battery will be able to store 129 megawatt hours (MWh) of energy so, if used at full capacity, it would be able to provide its maximum output for more than an hour.

While South Australia is leading the way in adopting renewable energy in Australia (recently passing the 50 per cent renewable energy mark), not everyone wants the state's future to be solar powered.

ReNew Economy reports that there are proposals to build a gas fired power plant with the fuel coming from coal gasification in the recently closed Leigh Creek brown coal mine (ignoring the dismal history of this process elsewhere in the country) - Not dead yet: Miners want to “gasify” closed brown coal mine in SA.

ReNew Economy has an article on an energy storage project in the South Australian outback, combining a 1MW, 0.5MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) with 4MW of wind generation and 1MW of solar PV - Toshiba eyes more opportunities in Australia after landing large-scale battery order.

RNE has a look at the relentless penetration of wind energy into the South Australian grid - South Australia wind energy jumps to 43% in July.

South Australia’s wind farms produced enough electricity to meet a record 43 per cent of the state’s power needs during July, and on occasions during the month provided all the state’s electricity needs. ... Combined with the state’s 550MW of solar power, it is likely that nearly half of the state’s electricity demand came from variable renewable sources such as wind and solar – a record for a major developed economy.

Spain, for instance, this week, said that in July solar made up 8 per cent of its power supply, spread evenly between concentrated solar thermal and solar PV – while wind energy contributed 16.8% of the overall energy generation mix.

“With more than 40 per cent of the state’s power demand provided by wind energy for the entire month, it is clear that large amounts of renewable energy can be added to the system without the need for extra backup generation to be built,” Clean Energy Council acting Chief Executive Kane Thornton said in a statement.

RNE has an article on the beginning of the end of the centralised power generation model - SA network operator: Rural communities could quit the grid.

The head of South Australia’s major power distributor says that rural communities – including major towns – could soon look after their own generation needs. And, said Rob Stobbe, the CEO of SA Power Networks, it could be inevitable that all forms of centralised generation and transmission will be made redundant over time.

Stobbe made his comments at the Energy Networks Association conference in Melbourne, where the industry is wrestling with the technology, cultural, and economic challenges of the biggest change in electricity markets in more than a century – and their $75 billion of assets.

The biggest challenge, of course, comes from the emergence of renewables, and distributed generation in particular, which along with storage is threatening to turn the tables on the centralized model.

Rob_Stobbe_-_webStobbe’s prediction that rural communities could go off grid – or create their own micro-grids with just a small connection to the main networks – follows similar remarks by Ian McLeod, the CEO of Queensland distributor Ergon Energy, earlier this week, and from the ENA itself, which has said that regional operators in Queensland and Western Australia would also look to “downsize” their network assets in favour of localized generation and micro-grids. In effect, they are looking to ditch their poles and wires.

Stobbe suggests that is exactly what is going to happen in South Australia, where the power network operator spends 70 per cent of its investment towards meeting just 30 per cent of its 840,000 customer base. Away from the big population centres around Adelaide, there are just three customers for every kilometre of line.

The Climate Spectator has a look at the increasing role of wind power in South Australia - Are the lights still on in South Australia?.

Yesterday, I called a friend of mine in Adelaide. Beyond the usual niceties to start the call my first question was: ‘is the power out?’ Perplexed, he answered in the negative, no doubt wondering whether I had control of my faculties.

It was a strange first question to come from a friend you haven’t spoken to for a month, after all. Especially from an avid Richmond supporter after the team’s biggest win in years. But I was concerned for the state of South Australia after receiving some interesting news during the day – wind now makes up 31 per cent of the state’s power supply, with solar PV accounting for another 3.5 per cent.

According to a leading energy advisory firm (Energy Quest), wind already “appears to be the new baseload.” Not bad in spite of the campaign against wind by they-who-shall-not-be-named. But while green groups were likely dancing in the streets, I was worried the lights in those streets might have gone out. I have been told for years that wind and solar are not capable of supplying power consistently enough to power one house, yet alone be able to supply a third of the energy needs for an entire state.

It appears to be all a Y2K-like false alarm however, with everything operating as normal. ...

Not only are wind and solar playing increasingly significant roles in the power grid, but they are also helping to make wholesale electricity prices cheaper. In the March quarter, wholesale electricity prices were between 30 and 60 per cent cheaper in the eastern states compared to a year ago. Energy Quest said the reasons for the wholesale price falls were “lower demand for grid power and the growth of wind and solar.”

South Australian wholesale prices fell 50 per cent, while the country’s most heavily reliant coal state, Victoria, only realised a price fall of 31 per cent. Average wholesale prices in Victoria, the only eastern state to have coal increase its output for the quarter, fell to $24.53/MWh from $35.50/MWh. South Australian prices fell to $26.17/MWh from $51.82/MWh. The gap is closing rapidly.

Obviously the switch to a sustainable energy future is a gradual one to be made over decades, not in the next year or two. But the progress with renewable energy in South Australia is promising and shows that with a friendly policy environment – for example, no 2km wind farm exclusion zones – great strides can be made.

Progress on goethermal power projects in South Australia has been disappointingly slow, however Petratherm continue to plug away trying to generate interest in a renewable energy precinct supplying power to Olympic Dam and adjoining mine sites. Recharge News reports - Geothermal group spells out green vision for South Australia.

Petratherm claims new tests reveal that wind and solar could play a big part in its vision of a 600MW Clean Energy Precinct in the north of the Australian state.

Assessments from consultancy Garrad Hassan Pacific reveal wind speeds of up to 8 metres per second at a height of 100 metres – offering the potential to host a 300MW wind farm – and a solar resource of 20 mega-joules per sq metre daily.

Adelaide-based Petratherm expects to complete the first 300MW stage of the project based on wind and gas generation. The second stage would see the deployment of large-scale geothermal energy from Petratherm’s ongoing South Australian Paralana project, supplemented by solar. The total cost of the project – located 300km northeast of Port Augusta – is estimated to be A$1.5bn ($1.57bn).

Petratherm says it is in discussions with key investors locally and overseas over potential technology and joint-venture partnerships. “It’s still early days for the precinct, but we remain firmly on track to combine new power generation facilities across gas, wind, solar and geothermal to eventually produce 600MW of reliable, competitively-priced electricity to meet anticipated demand from large mining developments in SA,” says Petratherm managing director Terry Kallis.

Petratherm sees robust demand growth from very large mines 270km east of the proposed site of the Clean Energy Precinct, including BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam – eventually tipped to be the biggest in the world – and OZ Mineral’s Prominent Hill and Carapateena mines. Between them they are estimated to have a total potential demand in excess of 700MW.

The Climate Spectator has a report on some positive thinking in South Australia, where Alinta is considering converting an old coal fired power station to a solar thermal power generator - From brown coal to solar thermal.

The owners of Australia’s most polluting coal-fired power station, the Playford plant in South Australia, are considering converting it to a solar thermal facility if it is closed as part of the government’s proposed buyout of brown-coal generators.

Jeff Dimery, the head of the now privately owned Alinta, said solar thermal technology was one of two options being considered after the closure of the 240MW Playford, and may be an easier option than trying to source gas for a gas-fired peaking generator, as there is no gas pipeline to Port Augusta.

“We’re exploring the idea of building a renewable facility and integrate that with baseload (from the remaining northern station) and solar thermal would be ideal, as there a good sun resource in the region,” Dimery told Climate Spectator in an interview. “The technology requires funding, and it’s a case of needing to convince government that it is one of better projects. We intend to explore it.”

Playford is one of four brown coal generators eligible to make a tender for the government’s proposed buyout, which intends to remove 2000MW of brown coal generation from the grid by 2020 in order to reduce emissions, and create room for gas-fired generation or renewables to be built in their place.

The solar thermal idea will not form part of Playford’s submission – apparently it matters not what the owners of the retiring generation plant intend to do with the funds (and some may be expected to expatriate those funds overseas), but Dimery is confident that Playford would be an attractive option in any case. For a start, it’s the most polluting, at 1.7t of Co2e/MWh, the early closure of 240MW would have little impact on the National Energy Market, and the workforce could be absorbed at the neighbouring 520MW Northern Power Station without any forced redundancies. That could save on government funds.

The other attraction of solar thermal is that it could be integrated into the Northern Power Station, pre-heating boilers in the same way that a solar booster plant will be designed to do at the Kogan Creek power station in Queensland, and/or putting electricity directly into the grid.

Adelaide Now reports that Adelaide water prices are set to double as the state runs short of water and has to buy supplies from elsewhere - SA to buy 'critical needs' water.

FOR the first time in its history, South Australia will have to buy water to guarantee supplies for critical human needs next year. The move reveals the increasing severity of the nation's water crisis at the end of the Murray River.

Necessary water supplies to Adelaide and towns across the state are at this stage not secured from July next year, which has forced the Rann Government on to the open water market. It has already bought 30 gigalitres from water resources shared with NSW and Victoria and admitted yesterday it had spent tens of millions of dollars to bolster the state's supplies.

Authorities must have 201gigalitres in reserve to ensure the water needs of the nation's fifth-largest city and the rest of the state are able to be met.

The state's Water Security Minister, Karlene Maywald, admitted yesterday that the lack of rainfall and dramatic reduction of inflows into the Murray River had meant the state could not accumulate its critical water needs without buying water from its neighbours.

Just over a year ago, water expert Professor Mike Young warned in The Australian that Adelaide could run dry this summer. He said yesterday the Government's move into the water market confirmed the dire situation the city and the state's Riverland food bowl faced in the coming year. ...

The Murray-Darling Basin Commission reports that inflow into the Murray last month was 140 gigalitres, just 18 per cent of the long-term average of 780gigalitres. November was the 38th consecutive month of below-average inflows. Under the River Murray dry flow contingency plans, the first priority is given to critical human needs.

In my coal to liquids in Australia post a few months ago I rated the chances of a development in northern South Australia as low. The SMH has a report today that the chances have improved greatly with Chinese firm CNOOC indicating an interest in the project - Chinese oil firm targets coal-to-liquids. Just what SA needs - another coal fired power plant...

A subsidiary of a Chinese state-owned oil giant has thrown its weight behind an ambitious, $3 billion coal-to-liquids (CTL) project planned for South Australia.

Australia-focused energy minnow Altona Resources Plc, which is listed on London's Alternative Investment Market, has signed an in-principle agreement with CNOOC (Beijing) Energy Investment Co Ltd to cooperate in the development of Altona's Arckaringa project in SA. The project includes a 10 million barrel per year open cut mine and a 560 megawatt power plant.

Interest in CTL, which involves converting coal into liquid hydrocarbons, is growing amid concerns about "peak oil". ...

He said the project would provide a major new source of base load power and diesel to SA, "which has a significant looming power deficiency and currently imports all of its distillate requirements".

Jamie Walker at The Weekend Australian has an interesting article on the movement to the south of "Goyders Line" - the line that defines the limits of practical farming in South Australia.

See the link for an accompanying video. The ABC did a documentary on the history of Goyder's line last year as well.

An inch still means everything out here on Goyder’s Line. It can make a man or break him, realise his dreams or turn them to dust. An extra inch in the rain gauge will fill a paddock knee-high with wheat, washing away the bitter seasons and piled-up debt. That inch – 25mm – is what Kym Fromm lives for.

Yet when this third-generation farmer looks out of his home’s dirt-streaked windows, beyond the sunburnt sheep and crop stubble he’s turned them loose on, towards a horizon that shimmers in the heat, he wonders what’s going on with the line. It was the one thing people thought they could count on in an unpredictable land. It was supposed to be immovable, a fixture among the dancing whirlwinds and blown hopes of the early settlers, whose ruined homesteads dot the countryside. Fromm’s not so sure: inch by inch, year by year, the line seems to be closing in.

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Map from South Australian Archives

If this is climate change at work, he ponders, it won’t leave him all that much of a future. The past two disastrous seasons confounded all his experience of cropping in South Australia’s drought-prone Mid North. “Everything happened back-to-front,” he sighs, nursing a coffee in his leathery hands. “The rain came in summer when we didn’t need it, it was dry all winter, and what was left of the crop got burned off when the northerlies started up in spring. Crazy stuff, mate, even for this country.”

The implications go far beyond his 2000ha property near Pekina, on George Goyder’s famous “line of reliable rainfall”, three hours’ drive from Adelaide. For more than 140 years this line has marked the limit of possibility for broadacre farming in the nation’s driest state. The colonial surveyor-general was undoubtedly a man ahead of his time. In the 1860s, he mapped where crops could be grown and where they could not. The debate he unleashed has never been more passionately argued than it is today, as drought and global warming raise new concerns about how intensively marginal agricultural lands should be worked, if at all.

The questions echo across the land, through the towns and cities, all the way to the marbled halls of federal Parliament. Are some growers simply in the wrong place, on country that can no longer sustain them? Could advances in farm practices and new crop varieties be their salvation? Or is the fight already lost (in which case, why should taxpayers throw good money after bad by subsidising them)?

Goyder’s answer, all those years ago, was to partition South Australia along what turned out to be the 10 inch (254mm) isohyet. (An isohyet is a line drawn on a map connecting points that receive equal rainfall.) It was an astonishing feat. With limited climate data he followed the rainfall contour on horseback, tracking the tell-tale break in the landscape where eucalypt forest and native grasslands gave way to sparse saltbush country. For every mile ventured beyond the line, rainfall was said to drop by an inch, until it became so low there was no point doing the arithmetic.

People set out to try to prove Goyder wrong by farming beyond the line. Few succeeded. Being on the safe side of the line – as 51-year-old Fromm is, if barely – instilled confidence that drought and disastrous seasons could be endured.

No longer. The reality of climate change has swept away the certainties of Goyder, feeding into wider concern that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will push vast tracts of marginal agricultural land past the point of viability. In the worst-case scenarios developed by South Australia’s Research and Development Institute and CSIRO, the line will shift south, rolling over Fromm’s dusty fields, perhaps all the way to the vineyards of the Clare Valley, about 120km distant.

Nearly everyone seems to have a theory about where the line will end up, and what that means for hardscrabble farming. Fromm is holding on – just. In 2006, he lost his entire crop. Last year was even more devastating, because for a while he had dared to believe the worst was over. Good rains in January 2007 were followed by a soaking in May, persuading him to go for broke and plant an extra paddock. Then, nothing. For a second successive year the winter rains failed.

Meticulously, he diarised the whole sorry saga. Fromm stabs a meaty finger at the entry for August 31, 2007: “Windy, 33 degrees,” he declaims, “hottest winter’s day I’ve had.” A scorching northerly began blowing on October 5 – the barley had “gone off” and the wheat was severely stressed. By the end of the month temperatures had hit 40 degrees. “Really bad,” he noted on the 27th, “Severely windy … dust everywhere.” Eventually he brought in a crop, but it was too meagre to retrieve the season. Despite near-record wheat prices he wound up $50,000 further in debt. “We had a 10 per cent chance of it going bad and, guess what, it did,” he says, draining his coffee, a long, sweaty afternoon’s work on the tractor beckoning. What he desperately needs is a return to something like normal conditions this year. If he loses another crop, he doesn’t know what will happen. Truth be told, no one really does. ...

Increasingly, the anecdotal evidence is backed by hard, scientific fact that the changed conditions are beyond any known seasonal variations. Last year was the hottest and among the driest on record in the bottom half of the continent. Southeastern Australia has missed out on the equivalent of a full year’s rainfall over the past decade, and nowhere has been worse affected than the Mid North of South Australia. What rain did fall came at the wrong time for farmers: the Bureau of Meteorology’s 2007 climate statement confirmed that last June-July was abnormally dry, and the spring was even worse, yielding hardly a sprinkle of rain when the crops needed it most.

The bureau’s head of climate analysis, David Jones, says it could be time to accept that the drying of the southern half of the continent is permanent. If so, cropping on the margins of Goyder’s Line will take place in drought conditions that might never fully break. “Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” Jones says. NSW’s mean temperature was 1.13 degrees above average in 2007, the equivalent of the state moving 150km closer to the equator.

Peter Hayman, of South Australia’s Research and Development Institute, who has been modelling potential shifts in the line, has used CSIRO data to factor in a rise in temperatures of up to 1.5 degrees by 2030, and up to five degrees by 2070. Rainfall patterns, however, are much harder to predict. “Most of the models are consistent about a drying trend, but the extent varies,” Hayman says. The bleakest forecast is for rainfall in the region to decrease by up to 50 per cent by 2070. In that event, the line would shift to Clare, destroying vast tracts of agricultural land. He is careful to point out, however, that this is by no means a certainty.

Climate change is lengthening southern Australia’s dry, hot summer, reducing winter rain, and that is what appears to be causing the line to move. By Hayman’s calculation, 10 per cent less rain would push the Orroroo section of the line south by 20km. With a 30 per cent drop in rainfall, the distance blows out to 43km; at 50 per cent it is at Clare, nearly halfway to Adelaide. Rainfall is not the only concern, either. Rising temperatures will produce more intense heatwaves, compounding the threat to crops. ...