It looks like Hurricane Gustav will hit to the west of New Orleans - AP has a report on the vulnerable areas in the bayou country - Gustav on track to become Cajun country's Katrina.

In the low-lying Cajun country west of New Orleans, where levees are largely nonexistent and the sea has been nibbling away the land for years, the looming threat of Hurricane Gustav has inspired a pervasive sense of dread.

Standing in a hallway of the emergency center here, state Sen. Reggie Dupre offered a worst-case assessment of Gustav's potential impact: "This could be our Katrina."

With Gustav heading toward the Louisiana coast as a storm of a catastrophic proportions, forecasts predict it will make landfall Monday in the bayou country in southwest Louisiana — the heart of one of America's most culturally diverse rural landscapes.

If Gustav makes landfall as feared near here, an area about 100 miles in width — extending from vulnerable portions of New Orleans west of the Mississippi River across a large swath of swampy land centered around the oil-and-gas town of Houma — could be flooded.

"What Katrina didn't destroy in '05, it looks like Gustav could destroy in '08," said Ivor van Heerden, a hurricane expert with Louisiana State University.

It's an area already at the brink of catastrophe.

For most of the past half century, the bayou communities that thrived in the Barataria basin have watched their land literally disappear. A combination of factors — oil drilling, hurricanes, river levees, damming of rivers — have destroyed marshes and swamps that once flourished in this river delta.

Entire towns in this basin of the Mississippi delta have disappeared because of land loss. The rates of loss are among the highest in the world. The U.S. Geological Survey says about 900 square miles of coastal land has disappeared since the 1950s and that has left the area with virtually no natural buffer.

Besides the loss of land, the people here are largely without levees.

A federal levee plan to protect Houma and the surrounding towns has never gotten off the ground. Meanwhile, most of Houma is protected by drainage levees about 10 feet tall. Gustav's storm surge is expected to be more than 10 feet high and could overwhelm the city's protection.

"Houma is just sitting there naked," said Roy Dokka, a geologist with LSU who's conducted a recent survey of levee heights in southeastern Louisiana. "People do not realize how bad it could be."

The SMH reports that New Orleans Ray Nagin has ordered the city to be evacuated as Hurricane Gustav approaches - Evacuation order as Gustav approaches.

New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin has ordered the city emptied tomorrow in the face of "the storm of the century", warning anyone that stays behind that they are on their own. "I am announcing today mandatory evacuation of New Orleans starting 8am Sunday (2300 Sunday AEST) on the West bank," Nagin said at a press conference. "We want everybody... we want 100 per cent evacuation. If you decide to stay, you are on your own." "This is the mother of all storms," Nagin said. "This storm is so powerful and growing more powerful every day that I'm not sure we've seen anything like it."

Nagin estimated that less than half of the city's population has left despite days of dire warnings. "This is the real deal," Nagin said. "Riding this storm out would be one of the biggest mistakes you could make in your life." Nagin said police, fire and other emergency personnel are being pulled from the city to safer areas. A "skeleton crew" of fewer than 50 city workers will be left behind, according to officials.

Hurricane Gustav is on course to crash ashore near New Orleans. Nagin told anyone planning to stay behind to "make sure you have an axe because you will be busting your way out to get on your roof with waters surrounding you."

As usual, The Oil Drum is keeping a 24 hour watch on progress - Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure, and Updated Damage Models - Thread #3.

Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair.

Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown)
Red: Damage likely

Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

Hopefully the storm ends up causing a lot less damage than Katrina did - and the Bush administration doesn't repeat its disastrous mishandling of any destruction that does occur.

TOD also has a good graphic from Ace showing GOM oil production - it won't look good cropped so click the linkt o see the full size one.

AccuWeather.com has some great satellite images showing the September hurricane lineup traversing the Atlantic too.