Showing posts with label peak car. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peak car. Show all posts

More Evidence That America May Have Reached ‘Peak Car’  

Posted by Big Gav in

Greentech Media has an update on the peak car theory - More Evidence That America May Have Reached ‘Peak Car’.

Three years ago, I lived in rural New England and drove my vehicle to get to most places -- particularly in the winter. But like a lot of Millennials, I moved to Washington, D.C. after the recession into a booming local economy.

I quickly ditched my car for a number of reasons: easy access to public transportation, high auto insurance rates in D.C., and the general hassle of owning a car in a city. There's also the thrill of riding a bicycle through gridlocked traffic, a feeling that any urban bicyclist will describe with glee.

I'm certainly not alone. According to research from the Public Interest Research Group, young Americans between the ages of 16 and 34 are driving 23 percent less than they did in 2001. All Americans are driving less, but the decline is even steeper for Millennials.

In study after study, the trend is stark. But researchers are still trying to figure out whether the decline in driving is due to a post-recession hangover, or caused by structural long-term changes that mean "peak car" has arrived.

In his latest of a series of studies on the issue, Michael Sivak of the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute doesn't definitively conclude that America has reached its driving peak. But he adds yet more compelling data to the mix hinting at a long-term trend.

In two earlier studies from earlier this year, Sivak reported that light-duty vehicles per person, per licensed driver and per household had all peaked before the economic turmoil in 2008, suggesting that "other societal changes" like public transportation, urbanization and telecommuting were core drivers of the trend.

Sivak's most recent research adds fuel consumption to the mix. He found that fuel consumption rates per person, per household and per vehicle all peaked in 2004, well before the economy tanked. Sivak also noted that fuel consumption is dropping faster than miles driven, which shows that fuel efficiency standards are working.

Why Are Petrol Prices Falling?  

Posted by Big Gav in , ,

The Atlantic has a look at the stalling price of petrol in the US - Why Are Gas Prices Falling?.

During the big run up in oil and gas prices that you can see in the charts above, some analysts contended that we were up against a geophysical limit on how much oil could be produced. It wasn't that we were running out of oil, but that we wouldn't be able to produce more, even if demand went up.

So far, however, that has not proven to be the case ...

That said, oil is getting harder to find and extract, requiring greater and greater investments of time, money, and energy. That's why, despite the relatively sunny outlook in latest edition of the IEA's World Energy Outlook, the agency cautioned that the "new oil resources" do not "mean the world is on the verge of an era of oil abundance."

Peak Vehicle Miles Travelled  

Posted by Big Gav in

The Atlantic has an article on declining car use in the US - Evidence Suggests It's Not About the Economy. Its interesting that the one state showing large increases in miles travelled is North Dakota - lots of driving around trying to increase shale oil production from the Bakken it seems...

Driving has been on the decline in the United States since 2004, as researchers have documented every which way. What they still don't know, though, is precisely why. The answer likely has to do with some messy mix of rising gas prices, changing demographics, new technology, a souring economy and the shifting preferences of Millennial drivers. But it's tempting to lean on some of those explanations more heavily than others. ...

Since VMT peaked nationwide in 2004, driving has also declined in nearly every state

Peak car ?  

Posted by Big Gav in

The Australian has an article on declining interest amongst Gen Y for getting a drivers licence - Driving me crazy: Getting a licence a low priority for Generation Y.

In 1991, of NSW kids aged 20-24, 79 per cent had licences. By 2001 it had risen to 80 per cent. Yet by 2008 it had crashed to just 51 per cent and continues to decline. A new study in Victoria by Monash University shows the number of licence holders under 30 is dropping at more than 1 per cent a year.

Having a smartphone is more important to Gen Y than having a car in a world experienced increasingly online. They have less reason to leave their bedrooms than ever before. The once pervasive car culture of the US is also in decline. In 1978, nearly half of American 16-year-olds and three-quarters of 17-year-olds had driver's licences, according to Department of Transportation data. In recent years, that has fallen to 31 per cent of 16-year-olds and 49 per cent of 17-year-olds, with the decline accelerating since 1998. ...

This phenomenon fits neatly into the theory of "peak car", which posits that vehicle kilometres per person travelled has peaked in at least eight major developed countries, including Australia.

In December 2008, researchers from the Brookings Institute observed that total vehicle miles travelled in the US began to plateau in 2004 and fell in 2007 for the first time since 1980. Per capita driving was following a similar pattern.

Similar stories are appearing in the US - Cars In America: Is The Love Story Over? and Young adults and driving: 'Ain't nobody got time for that' - quoting this study - Timing of Driver’s License Acquisition and Reasons for Delay among Young People in the United States, 2012.

Studies show that teenagers are driving less, getting their licenses later, and waiting longer to purchase their first new car. NPR's Sonari Glinton recently hit the streets to find out why, and discovered not having a car or not being able to afford one, has become a lot more common. The negative stigma around not having a car has also seems to have waned. ...

Micheline Maynard, a veteran journalist who's covered automobiles and transportation issues, now oversees the website CurbingCars.com. She tells NPR's Don Gonyea that one of the most cited reasons behind this trend of young people waiting to get a car or their driver's license is simply not having the time. "Many states have now changed teen driving laws, so you have to spend a certain amount of time in the car with a parent," Maynard says. "And people just shrug and say, 'You know what, I don't need to get a license right now.' "

Another reason often cited is money. Maynard says the average cost of a new car is about $30,000, before factoring in car insurance. Add in the high price of gas in some places and owning a car is simply too expensive for a young person.

There are also more transportation options available for those without a car, Maynard notes, from bikes, to ride shares, hourly car services and public transportation. "Public transit is seeing record demand at this point in time," she says. "I think people are looking at transportation now as 'I use my car when I need it, but if there are other cheaper, faster ways to get somewhere I'll use that as well.'

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