Technology Review has a look at First Solar's efforts to improve thin film solar power panels - How First Solar Is Avoiding the Industry’s Turmoil.

They are touting both better solar conversion efficiency (up to 24% in the lab vs 20% for silicon) and lower prices (60 to 70 cents per watt to manufacture vs 69 to 80 cents for silicon) than silicon panels as the reason for their success.

RNE has a look at the fading competitiveness of gas compared to solar power - Solar costs to halve as gas prices surge.

Another of the world’s leading solar PV manufacturing giants has underlined the potential for yet more substantial falls in the manufacturing cost of solar modules, even as the cost of fossil fuels – and gas in particular – surges in the opposite direction.

Beyond the near-term revenue forecasts that obsess market analysts, one of the big take-outs of First Solar’s annual market day in New York this week was its predictions about the cost of solar modules over the next five years. In short, First Solar expects its average manufacturing cost to nearly halve – from an average $US0.63/watt in 2013, to $US0.35/W in 2018. That will bring the total installed cost of a module (including racking and inverters) from around $1.59/W to below $1/W by 2017 – so meeting the US Department of Energy’s ambitious Sunshot Initiative goals at least three years ahead of time.

This is significant because as solar prices are coming down, fossil fuel prices are headed quickly in the opposite direction. The US has been hailed as the nation of cheap gas, but that is proving to be an illusion betrayed by rapid depletion rates of wells and the growing challenge of deeper and more complicated reserves. Not to mention the water and other environmental considerations.

As this story from EnergyWire states, wholesale prices in the north-east grid in the US jumped 55 per cent in 2013, thanks mostly to a 76 per cent jump in the price of gas to $US6.97/MMBTU, which is now back above its pre GFC, pre-fracking boom levels. (Bookmark the graph, and point it out to the next person that tells you how the fracking boom has guaranteed low electricity prices into the future. It’s bunkum).

The future of large-scale solar was in balance just a year ago, mostly because many of the initial big projects had been funded by California’s ambitious renewable energy target, and a strong solar mandate. But First Solar now sees this large-scale market rebounding, mostly because interest is turning to solar because of those rising gas prices. Power purchase agreements, according to Deutsche Bank analysts, are in the range of $US50-$US70/MWh (helped by a tax credit because the LCOE of most utility scale solar is still probably above $100/MWh.

Cleantechnica has a post on another large scale solar PV project in California - First Solar Breaks Ground On 150 MW California Solar Farm.

First Solar has now officially begun work on the 150 megawatt (MW) AC Solar Gen 2 project in Imperial Valley, California. ...

First Solar is no stranger to large-scale solar projects. It is the #1 utility-scale solar developer in the world in terms of capacity (by far). It is also a top solar module producer, the only thin-film solar module producer in the top 10. In this particular region, “First Solar also developed and is constructing the 139 MW Campo Verde Project in El Centro, which is expected to be complete by the end of October,” First Solar adds. “Additionally, the company is completing construction of the 130 MW Tenaska Imperial Solar Energy Center South project in Calexico for project owner and developer Tenaska.”

The SMH reports on 2 large scale thin film solar power plants to be built in outback NSW using First Solar panels - AGL unveils Australia's biggest solar energy plants.

Australia’s biggest solar energy plants have been given the funding go-ahead, clearing the way for the installation of 2 million photovoltaic panels at two sites in the NSW outback.Power company AGL on Wednesday committed to proceed with the $450 million investment in the plants which will supply 50,000 homes with electricity and potentially pave the way for more such ventures.

Nyngan, north-west of Dubbo, will host the larger of the two plants, with a 102-megawatt capacity, while a 53-megawatt plant will be built near Broken Hill. Both should be supplying power to the eastern Australian grid by the end of 2015.

Greentech Media has an article on the demise of thin film solar company Nanosolar (another victim of the shakeout following the solar investment boom of 5 years ago) - Nanosolar, Thin-Film Solar Hype Firm, Officially Dead.

It's official. Nanosolar, the CIGS thin-film solar panel aspirant which produced little but hype and broken promises, is done. Its assets are being auctioned off.

This should come as no surprise to GTM readers. We reported on the layoffs, the skeleton crew, and the "restructuring for sale" back in April. If you speak CIGS, then you know that "restructuring for sale" translates to "Hanergy, please buy us."

But a white knight never emerged as it did for MiaSolé, HelioVolt, and Ascent -- and so, Nanosolar joins Solyndra, AQT, SoloPower, etc. on the list of failed CIGS solar firms.

The thin film solar sector is still moving forward though, with dramatic cost improvements in the offing for CdTe based films - Thin film PV breakthrough may cut solar costs by one third.

A new Silicon Valley developer of thin film solar PV modules, backed by an Australian venture capitalist, has claimed an engineering breakthrough that could cut the manufacturing costs of PV modules by one third. RSI has broken cover after five years of development to announce it has created a 1.5 square metre cadmium telluride PV (CdTe) module, twice the size of conventional modules.

It says this will enable solar PV modules to be manufactured at a cost of less than 40c/Watt, around one third cheaper than current mass-produced thin film and silicon based modules – and hastening the charge towards grid parity for solar PV.

First Solar, currently the world’s largest thin film solar PV module manufacturer, had predicted reaching 40c/W by 2017 through increases in efficiency. RSI says it can deliver that cost in 2014 by doubling the size of the module through a process known as Rapid Efficient Electroplating on Large- areas (REEL).

thin film market leader First Solar still seems to be going strong as well - First Solar Advances 162 MW of Unsubsidized Solar in Chile.

First Solar's strategy of expanding into new, sustainable solar markets looks like it's paying off. The thin-film solar panel manufacturer and project developer has applied for permits for the $370 million, 162-megawatt Luz del Norte project, according to a filing with Chile’s environmental licensing department. The project will use more than 1.7 million panels, with construction slated to start in June 2014.

Earth2Tech reports that First Solar has a set a new efficiency record for a CdTe thin film solar cell - First Solar boasts world-record solar cell.

The prices of solar panels are falling fast, and that’s putting enormous pressure on manufacturers to cut costs and improve the amount of power solar cells can convert from sunlight. Thin film solar leader First Solar says it’s even gotten a world record out of its latest efficiency developments, and on Tuesday the company boasted a 17.3 percent efficient solar cell.

The test cell exceeds the previous record of 16.7 percent for a solar cell made of cadmium-telluride set by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in 2001. The new record is critical not for bragging but for showing solar panels made with cadmium-telluride cells can have a longer presence in the market than previously expected.

Efficiency is correlated with how much power a panel of a given size can produce – more power means higher efficiencies. There is a fixed cost and amount of time for making each panel, and First Solar’s technology makes a panel in less than 2.5 hours. If the company produces each panel with a higher power rating (in watts), then that panel’s cost-per-watt is lower.

The Arizona company has been hailed as the lowest-cost solar panel manufacturer in the industry for some years now. Producing panels more cheaply than others is the key advantage for First Solar, especially when its solar panels aren’t as efficient as most others in the market. During the first quarter of this year, the company produced panels with 11.7 percent efficiency at $0.75 per watt.

Todd Woody at Grist has a post on a new US government report predicting a boom for the solar thermal power industry - Solar thermal industry set to boom.

This year will see a boom in large-scale solar thermal projects.Photo: International RiversThe rapidly growing photovoltaic industry has spawned thousands of jobs for people who design, make, and install rooftop solar arrays for homes and businesses. But the smaller solar thermal business is also set to boom in the United States, according to a new government report [PDF].

Solar thermal products come in all sizes -- from rooftop panels that absorb the sun's rays to heat swimming pools and provide hot water for homes to huge mirror arrays that heat liquids to create steam to drive electricity-generating turbines at solar power plants.

Employment in the solar thermal collector industry jumped 22 percent in 2009 from the previous year, said the report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The number of solar thermal companies increased by 19 percent.

It's still a small industry, with revenues in 2009 reaching $96.7 million, a 19 percent spike from the previous year. At the same time, total shipments of solar thermal products fell nearly 19 percent.

That's because swimming pool products accounted for 73 percent of the industry in '09. But that's poised to change, as developers are set to break ground on several large-scale solar thermal power plants in the desert Southwest this year.

Those projects will deploy tens of thousands of mirrors, solar troughs, and other components. California alone in recent months has licensed solar thermal plants that would generate more than 4,000 megawatts of electricity -- that will heat a whole lotta swimming pools.

German solar manufacturer Schott, for example, has built a solar thermal component factory in Arizona to supply projects in the Southwest, and other manufacturing facilities are planned for the region.

Grist also has a report on a big new solar PV plant in the strange new Chinese region of Ordos - Deal signed in big China solar project.

The world's largest photovoltaic project is finally moving forward in China.

Back in September 2009, First Solar, the Tempe, Ariz., thin-film solar module maker and developer, announced that it had struck a deal to build a massive 2,000-megawatt solar power plant complex in the Ordos region of Inner Mongolia.

Then, as often is the case when such big projects are unveiled with great fanfare, nothing much happened for a long while as the nitty-gritty financial details were worked out and First Solar grappled with Chinese bureaucracy.

But on Monday, First Solar said it had struck an agreement with the China Guangdong Nuclear Solar Energy Development Company (CGN SEDC) to build the first 30-megawatt phase of the two-gigawatt project. According to the original announcement, the full project is to be completed by 201

Giles Parkinson at The Climate Spectator has a look at Lend Lease's interest in rolling out large scale solar PV power generation across the rooftops of commercial buildings - New Lease of life for solar.

The push by construction and property giant Lend Lease into the solar energy business could be one of the most significant interventions to date in Australia’s nascent renewable energy market.

The move is based on a couple of simple premises. The most important of these is the belief that, within a few years, solar photovoltaic technology will match, and then displace, wind energy as the most cost-effective and efficient renewable energy source in Australia.

If that comes to pass, it could turn most forecasts for the build-out of renewable technology in this country on their head, and Lend Lease will be in a position to become a dominant player in what will rapidly become a multi-billion dollar a year solar PV market.

Lend Lease has been quietly working on its plans for the past 12 months, ever since it signed a deal with the world’s biggest solar PV maker, the US-based First Solar, to install 10MW of its panels on the roof-tops of its commercial building portfolio.

The two companies found that there was a meeting of minds, culture and ambition, and Lend Lease has now signed a deal to become the local partner for the distribution and installation of First Solar’s thin-film solar panels, whose modules are scalable from roof-top solar to commercial and industrial scale installations, and to large scale utilities.

Lend Lease, of course, has capabilities across all three markets; from its Delfin home business, to its large commercial and industrial property portfolio, and its construction business, where it has already been involved in two large-scale utility proposals that have been shortlisted for the federal government’s Solar Flagships program – one with AGL and First Solar and the other with TruEnergy and First Solar.

For good measure, Lend Lease has decided to take a completely new business approach to the solar PV market and, rather than focus on direct selling like the current incumbents, it has signed an alliance with a yet-to-be-named major bank and an energy utility (one would presume AGL or TruEnergy) to tap into their multi-million customer bases to market and distribute the product. It has also struck an alliance with the Norwegian firm REC, which will provide silicon-based solar panels.

Lend Lease notes that, even with the rapid boost in the solar PV market in the last 18 months aided by the proliferation of state-based feed-in tariffs, less than 3 per cent of Australian householders will have rooftop solar by the end of the year. The market is ripe for the picking.

“This will be a step change in the domestic market,” says Chris Carolan, the head of Lend Lease Solar, who was the project director for Australia’s first 5 star CBD building, The Bond, the company’s headquarters. “No one saw Bond coming, no one knew what green star was,” he says. “We want to make the same impact with solar PV.”

Carolan expects the “tipping point” of the solar PV market in Australia will occur at around 2014. That will follow three years of anticipated and consecutive 20 per cent rises in local energy costs (mostly to fund grid upgrades) and declining costs in solar. First Solar is already the market leader in costs, has forecast a 20 per cent reduction in costs per year for the foreseeable future and has achieved a 6 per cent fall in the last quarter alone.

The economics of the venture will be boosted by the Brumby government’s large-scale solar target of 5 per cent by 2020, and the country’s first large-scale feed-in-tariff, an initiative Carolan expects will soon be followed by other state governments.

The 5 per cent Victorian target alone equates to around 2000MW of solar by 2020. Given that it will take a few years to roll out the first projects, that equates to a billion-dollar industry in Victoria alone.

Greentech Solar reports that manufacturing costs at thin film solar power company First Solar continue to drop - First Solar Drops Cost to 76 Cents a Watt.

First Solar offered a cautious outlook on sales this year, but said Thursday it cut manufacturing costs and promised a rapid expansion in utility-scale projects.

The thin-film giant reported second-quarter financial results with a 12 percent increase in sales. However, earnings were down primarily due to lower module selling prices.

The world's largest solar maker acknowledged replacing some modules made from June 2008 to June 2009 because of declines in power output. It said replacement costs would add up to slightly more than $23 million for an anticipated 30 megawatts of modules.

Perhaps most significantly, the company cut its 2010 sales expectation to $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion from the $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion it forecast in April.

On a conference call, it said:

*Module manufacturing costs fell to 76 cents a watt, down 5 cents from the first quarter. Annual throughput per line was up 6 percent to 59 megawatts and material costs were lower. The company's target is to reach 52 cents to 63 cents a watt in 2014.

*Utility-scale projects are expected to increase. First Solar said it anticipates building 500 to 700 megawatts of projects in North America during 2011, up from 175 megawatts this year.

*Demand is expected to exceed supply in 2010. First Solar expects production capacity to be 2.2 gigawatts by 2012, up from 1.4 gigawatts this year. Module conversion efficiency was 11.2 percent in the second quarter compared with 11.1 percent in the first quarter.

The WSJ has an update on the progress of First Solar - First Solar Looks Past Success To Even Brighter Future

First Solar Inc. is the world's largest solar-panel maker. Now, it wants to compete with fossil-fuel power generators.

In addition to making flat, glass panels that convert sunlight into electricity, First Solar has built some of the largest solar farms in the U.S. including a 21-megawatt facility in Blythe, Calif., owned by NRG Energy Inc. and a 10-megawatt plant in Boulder City, Nev., owned by Sempra Energy.

First Solar plans to build several more solar farms with a project-development business assembled over the last year through its acquisitions of NextLight Renewable Power LLC in April, a unit of Edison International, in January and part of privately held OptiSolar last year.

The move is a risky one for the Tempe, Ariz.-based company. First Solar hopes it can leverage its expertise in solar panels to build solar farms capable of taking on gas-fired power plants. The goal: to greatly expand solar power's share of the U.S. power market.

With 2,200 megawatts of solar farms under development, First Solar hopes it can demonstrate that solar power is a reliable, reasonably priced source of valuable daytime electricity. For investors, the company aims to prove that solar farms can be lucrative.

"Our major goal is to provide renewable power that's sustainable over time," said First Solar Chief Executive Rob Gillette in an interview earlier this month. In turn, that will "drive the costs of our technology down to where it is competing with fossil-fuel peaking resources," he added.

This year, the company will sell most of its panels into the red-hot solar-power market. Global installations of solar panels are expected to nearly double this year to about 13 gigawatts, due to strong demand in Germany and other European countries, where developers are rushing to nail down projects ahead of government plans to cut subsidies later this year.

Meanwhile, demand in the U.S., Japan, China and other countries has been steadily rising. In addition to clean energy requirements and improving economies, falling solar-panel prices have generated greater interest.

With its low-cost thin-film manufacturing technology, First Solar is a formidable competitor in a market increasingly populated by low-priced Chinese manufacturers. The company isn't standing still. First Solar is in the process of expanding production of solar panels by nearly 60% to 2,100 megawatts by 2012, while working to cut manufacturing costs and improve its product. ...

Analysts predict U.S. solar-power demand could double this year to nearly 1,000 megawatts and continue growing over the next several years. Much of that growth will be in California and other Western states where state renewable-energy requirements and strong solar resources have created a springboard for the solar market.

Greentech Media reports that First Solar has joined the Desertec solar power initiative - First Solar Joins Desertec.

First Solar will participate in the massive Desertec project, one more stop along their plan toward world domination.

The Arizona-based manufacturer of cadmium telluride solar modules will provide know-how on how to build large-scale solar power plants. The Desertec initiative will attempt to build renewable power plants in the deserts of North Africa that will supply a significant amount of power to the Europe, the Middle East and North Africa by 2050. Photovoltaics, solar thermal, wind, and other technologies, along with experiments in carbon capture, will likely ultimately play a role in the project.

Siemens is one of the big drivers. Right now, everything is in the planning stages, but Desertec is shaping up to be one of the largest construction projects ever attempted. (More on utility scale solar parks will be one of the subjects at the Solar Summit 2010 taking place in Arizona later this month.)

Like SunPower, Suntech Power Holdings and other large solar manufacturers, First Solar hopes to get a growing portion of its revenue from building power plants and selling power. In this situation, a module maker effectively becomes its own customer. First Solar has already signed on to build a 2 megawatt solar power plant in Inner Mongolia and has projects completed and underway in the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates.

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2008/01/thin-film-solar-power-cheaper-than-coal.htmlGreentech media has a post on thin film solar company First Solar's booming market capitalisation - First Solar Joins S&P 500.

As sales climbed, First Solar filed for an IPO in November 2006. The stock went out at $20 and hit $200 within a year, a trajectory that compares with Google's first year. The economic calamity, among other factors, caused the stock to drop, but the company has consistently topped revenue and earnings expectations while dropping the average price of its solar panels. It broke the $1 per watt manufacturing cost barrier in 2008. During the second quarter, the cost per watt was down to 87 cents. But good luck figuring out how they do it – the company fiercely guards its secrets. First Solar is working on a way to bring copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) cells to market.

The Huffington Post has an article on a planned Chinese solar plant that would be the world's largest (lots of those around) - this one is a 2GW thin film solar plant using technology from First Solar - Chinese solar plant expected to be the biggest.

First Solar Inc. said Tuesday it has received initial approval from the Chinese government to build what may become the largest solar field in the world.

First Solar, which makes more solar cells than any other company, said it struck a tentative 10-year deal to build in China's vast desert north of the Great Wall. The project would eventually blanket 25 square miles of Inner Mongolia – slightly larger than the size of Manhattan – with a sea of black, light-absorbing glass.

The solar field would dwarf anything in operation in the U.S. or Europe. At 2 gigawatts, or 2 billion watts, the solar plant could pump as much energy onto China's grid as two coal-fired plants, enough to light up three million homes. Like most solar plants, however, it wouldn't produce electricity at night.

"The potential is enormous" for projects like this in China, CEO Mike Ahearn told The Associated Press before the announcement. "The Chinese government is further along in its thinking about solar than we've imagined."

Ahearn said it would be nearly impossible to install a solar field of this size in the United States. There's plenty of land, but there's not enough near transmission lines, Ahearn said.

And efforts to build new power lines are regularly stymied by competing interests from government agencies, environmental groups and disgruntled residents. ...

Ahearn said First Solar spent the past few months searching for partners in China, culminating with its 2-gigawatt deal in Inner Mongolia. Like the U.S., China has taken aggressive steps to move away from fossil fuels. It located the First Solar plant in Ordos, a gritty industrial city of 1.4 million people that is the main production base for China's largest coal company.

The project hasn't been given an exact location yet, but the agreement said it will be located within a massive development zone that is expected to eventually offer nearly 12 gigawatts of renewable energy from wind, solar, biomass and hydroelectric power. First Solar will provide most of the solar, with the first 30 megawatts installed by June 1, 2010. The company will expand the plant over the next decade, installing about 27 million thin-film panels by 2019.

Thin film solar company First Solar recently announced that it cut the manufacturing cost of its thin film solar cells to 98 cents (US) per watt - First Solar Passes $1 Per Watt Industry Milestone.

First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR) today announced it reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier.

“This achievement marks a milestone in the solar industry’s evolution toward providing truly sustainable energy solutions,” said Mike Ahearn, First Solar chief executive officer. “First Solar is proud to be leading the way toward clean, affordable solar electricity as a viable alternative to fossil fuels.”

First Solar began full commercial operation of its initial manufacturing line in late 2004. From 2004 through today, manufacturing capacity has grown 2,500 percent to more than 500 megawatts in 2008. First Solar’s annual production capacity will double in 2009 to more than 1 gigawatt, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant. These escalating volumes have been accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing costs. From 2004 through today, First Solar’s manufacturing costs have declined two-thirds from over $3 per watt to less than $1 per watt. First Solar is confident that further significant cost reductions are possible based on the yet untapped potential of its technology and manufacturing process.

Keith Johnson at the WSJ's Environmental Capital blog reports that First Solar are involved in a potential 48 Mw expansion of a Nevada solar power plant - Desert Sun: Sempra, First Solar Look for More Gold in El Dorado.

Sempra Generation says it’s building the biggest—and cheapest—solar power plant in the U.S. And it’s not even looking to outer space to do so.

The San Diego-based Sempra announced a 48-megawatt addition to its existing 10-megawatt thin-film solar-power installation near Las Vegas. It’s part of Sempra’s push into renewable energy, especially solar and wind power. That will include “in excess of 300 megawatts” of solar power near Sempra’s existing power plant in Arizona, said chief executive Mike Allman in an interview.

Proximity to existing power plants is key, the utility says. The 58-megawatt Nevada installation, using thin-film solar panels made by Tempe-based First Solar, piggybacks on an existing natural gas-fired plant.

That gives Sempra “the lowest-cost solar ever delivered…nobody can hold a candle to our costs,” Mr. Allman says. That’s partly because there’s no need to secure permission or financing for new power lines. Solar power also provides the most power during the afternoon, right during times of peak demand for electricity.

That said, the economics of Sempra’s thin-film installations aren’t quite as rosy as some have speculated, with never-confirmed analyst cost estimates as low as 7.5 cents per kilowatt hour. “It’s more than double that,” Mr. Allman said. The national average for all electricity is about 9 cents a kilowatt hour.

The planned expansion of the El Dorado plant in Nevada is also conditional on Sempra finding a utility willing to buy the electricity; the first 10 megawatts were contracted to Pacific Gas & Electric. Mr. Allman said Sempra is looking at buyers in California, Arizona, and Nevada—all states that have renewable-energy requirements forcing utilities to get a certain portion of their power from clean energy.

And they are scrambling. PG&E just announced a plan to get solar power from space, in part to meet its renewable-energy targets. Mr. Allman says the El Dorado expansion shows earth-based solar power still has a future, too. “It’s a vote of confidence in centralized, desert, large-scale solar infrastructure,” he said.

PV tech reports that First Solar are also involved in a new 53 MW solar power plant in Germany - First Solar sees explosive growth in Germany.

A new 53MW solar power plant near the German city of Cottbus, could well be unique and come to represent the explosive growth of thin film solar leader, First Solar, Inc in years to come. 700,000 modules will be required for the project, which would become the largest in Germany. The project is being organised by First Solar and Juwi Holding AG, having secured funding from a consortium of banks, with 162 hectares of land leased from the State of Brandenburg on very attractive terms. This was due to the site being a former Soviet Union Army training camp that is ‘littered’ with land mines, grenades and other munitions, according to a joint statement from the project developers.

“First Solar’s mission is to enable a world powered by clean, affordable solar electricity,” said Stephan Hansen, Managing Director, First Solar GmbH. “This project alone is expected to displace approximately 35,000 tons of C02 emissions a year. But we are particularly proud of this project because it adds an additional element to ‘clean.’ Not only will the project produce clean electricity, but it will also result in the removal of hazardous munitions from this project site.”

Matthias Willenbacher, Juwi Chief Executive, said, “Large projects like this one demonstrate that solar power is already capable of making significant contributions to addressing climate change. With this project, Juwi, using First Solar modules, has developed the three largest PV power plants in Germany.”

The significant scale of the project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2009, could enable economies of scale yet to be seen in the solar industry. According to the partners, construction of the project began in January 2009, and the first 15MW have already been installed.

Greentech Media has a post on a report that First Solar's new thin film solar power plant in Nevada has is cost competitive with coal fired power (aka "grid parity") - First Solar Reaches Grid-Parity Milestone, Says Report.

First Solar has made it to grid parity, according to at least one analyst.

A 12.6-megawatt system installed by First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR) for Sempra Generation showed that the system can produce electricity at below the price of conventional power in the United States, said Mark Bachman, an equity analyst at Pacific Crest, in a research note Tuesday.

The system can generate 12.6 megawatts of power in direct current, which is then converted to alternating current to feed the electric grid. First Solar announced the project as a 10-megawatt (AC) power plant earlier this year.

The plant, located in the Nevada desert near Boulder City, costs $0.075 per kilowatt hour to install without any subsidies, Bachman wrote. Conventional power fed into the grid costs $0.09 per kilowatt hour.

"In our view, the industry leaders will be those companies that can deliver electricity at or below grid parity pricing without the aid of subsidies while also delivering superior return to shareholders," Bachman said. "Currently, only First Solar can claim these achievements, in our view."

Bachman's cost calculations, of course, are impacted by a number of factors and others will likely come to different conclusions. Part of the calculation relies on what others are achieving in other locations with different kinds of panels. Nonetheless, it underscores the progress the industry is making toward the important milestone.

And First Solar isn't the only narrowing in on it. Yesterday, Cypress Semiconductor CEO T.J. Rodgers told a group of reporters that power from crystalline silicon solar panels will be cheaper than coal power by 2012 when transmissions lines, utility bureaucracy and other factors are added in.

"We are zeroing in on parity," Rodgers said. "We're going to match PG&E (Pacific Gas and Electric) by 2012. Within a couple of years, the price of solar will be just as cheap."

Rodgers invested in SunPower in 2000 when it had 40 employees. He turned the shares over to Cypress later. SunPower now sells billions worth of panels a year.

First Solar, based in Tempe, Ariz., makes thin-film solar panels using cadmium tellurium as the key ingredient to convert sunlight into electricity. It's one of a handful of thin-film companies to be producing panels in high volumes and the only one turning out cad tel panels in volume.

Most of the solar panels today use crystalline silicon, which is able to convert more sunlight than materials used by thin-film makers. Next year, a handful of manufacturers will start making copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) solar cells.