Oil: Is the Top In ?  

Rigzone is speculating that traditional signs of a top are visible in the oil market.

Calling a top in any market is always a gamble (having tried it in the tech stock market in 1998 and the real estate market here in 2000 I'm reluctant to point to a top in any market until a crash has actually begun) and in this case, its hard to imagine any future weakness in oil prices persisting for long (unless peak oil really is a long way off).

The shouts of oil prices remaining high "permanently" are getting louder. Last week Goldman Sachs called for crude oil prices to rise to $105 per barrel. This week, the World Bank described a similar scenario. Venezuela's oil minister also talked about oil prices remaining high. And now the International Money Fund is warning of the risk of a "permanent," oil shock.

A rather prominent fellow approached us yesterday, and with a gleam in his eye that we haven't seen in some time, pronounced that the current market is a "secular" bull market in oil, and that it is a "once in a lifetime" opportunity. The fellow then asked us which discount futures broker would be the best one for the futures trading account that he was about to open.

Few things, especially, in the commodity markets are permanent, other than prices will fluctuate. From a contrarian standpoint, when everyone agrees on something, it usually means that the opposite is about to happen. But the presses are now burning with hot oil stories.