Peak Oil Optimist ?
Posted by Big Gav
Rob over at "Peak Oil Optimist" had a rather demented freak-out this week about the millenialist tendencies in some peak oil circles (and gives a very good example of how not to deal with sensible comments - if you don't like reasoned debate than just ban comments altogether and save people the time of composing a reasonable reply).
I think he's kind of missing the point - a lot of the dire warnings about the peak are intended (I assume) to motivate discussion and action in the same way that "The Day After Tomorrow" was meant to wake some people up about global warming.
And even the most extreme peak oil sites like dieoff.org don't seem gleeful about the imminent demise of humanity that they predict, contrary to Rob's accusations - they just think its inevitable because a large mass of the western world's population clearly doesn't listen to warnings about unsustainable behaviour.
If you want to be optimistic about it thats great - but the optimism should be based on positive actions that are happening to deal with the problem, rather than repeating the "market will solve all problems" religious mantra that seems to be increasingly emanating from the US these days (every single party state needs some simple slogans for the proles to chant I guess).
The original rant was inspired by an interesting article at Anthropik called "The Opposite Of Malthus" which is worth reading. Rob's rant also inspired a reply, "On Optimism", which I guess expresses the primitivist view on peak oil.
Many call me a pessimist, because I see the collapse of civilization in the next 15 years--whether by Peak Oil, global warming, or simply its increasing fragility--as inevitable, as well as the concommitant death of 99% or more of the current human population. But then, in the future I foresee, after breaking its 10,000-year-old fever in the greatest strife any animal has ever had the misfortune to behold, those who choose to survive by changing their lifestyle will get to live the balance of their days in the peace, freedom and simple joy which has been unknown to our civilized kind for 10 millennia. It's not a perfect utopia, except in comparison to civilized life. Civilization is all about living today by indebting the future; eventually, that must be paid. In the future I foresee, we pay it all at once and be done with it.
Rob also has a (much less fraught) post on methane hydrates which views them in a positive light. One article he links to is a good one from "Mechanical Engineering Magazine" that discusses the economic viability of extracting natural gas from methane hydrates. He doesn't comment on the global warming implications unfortunately, something I've morbidly moaned about previously.
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