Pirates Of The Caribbean  

Some random notes on the economy (in homage to Peak Energy North's Market Appreciation Week). The first link is volatile - after a few days you'll have to dig into the archives to find it.

Through the paper Mr. Casey details the three phases of a secular bull market: the Stealth Phase, the Wall of Worry, and finally the Mania Phase. The easy money was already made in the Stealth Phase and we are now in the Wall of Worry. Just listen to the popular media talk down the commodity markets…today will be easy with the decline of $1.77 a barrel for crude today with the close at $47.20. Two things have happened to get oil down in price: first they ramp the “petro-dollar” higher and voila…lower crude price. Second, oil inventories have been growing for 13 out of the last 14 weeks. If they thought crude would be moving so much lower in price (some say going to $35), why have they been building so much inventory with the price was above $50 a barrel? I have heard some analysts suggest they have to top off the tanks if we are going to war with Iran in a month or two…or possibly Syria. They have been pumping oil and importing at breakneck speed to get these inventories higher. High energy prices are taxing the global economy. They needed to get oil lower to avoid choking off more discretionary spending. As we get closer to the driving season we’ll see how much of a choke point there is on global refining capacity.