Is The World Running Out Of Oil ?  

The Australian Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics examined the arguments for and against the likelihood of a near term peak in oil production and produced this paper (pdf) earlier this year - its quite a good summary of the arguments on both sides - but doesn't try to decide which camp is correct.

There are two very distinct schools of thought on the question of whether we are running out of oil. The ‘peak theorists’/depletionists argue that half the world’s oil supplies have been used and oil production has peaked or is about to peak, signalling a near-term crisis across world economies that will cause massive dislocations. The counter view, held by international energy agencies and other antidepletionists, is that while there are always uncertainties about reserve estimates, it is most likely we have only used around a quarter of world reserves and that the outlook for the next 30 years presents no cause for concern. Oil supplies, they argue, will keep pace with demand, as reflected in the expectation that long-term prices (in year 2000 dollars) are likely to be around $30 per barrel.

The depletionists base their work on the Hubbert curves and draw on M. King Hubbert’s prediction of the peaking of U.S. oil production in 1970s as testimony to the validity of their approach. They also focus on resources as a physical limit, calling on ‘the immutable physical laws of depletion’ to support their case and estimating ultimately recoverable resources (URR) at 1.8 trillion barrels. They predict that the downturn in oil production will be sudden and unanticipated, thrusting an unprepared world into economic and social turmoil.

The antidepletionists estimate a URR of over 3 trillion barrels and draw attention to the failed predictions of doom throughout history, starting in the early days of the ‘oil age’—around 1865.3 They point to the fact that world oil reserves have grown over the past 50 years faster than cumulative production due to discoveries and enhanced recovery techniques.