Volcanoes, Oil, and Prophets  

Here's a Hawaiian view of the peak oil future (via FTD and Energy Bulletin).

A civilization-destroying flood or the British Empire no longer threatens us, but denial about potential dangers remains strong. According to four recent books and a growing number of scientists and writers, America and those on its industrial highway may be heading into contraction, turbulence, chaos, or even collapse.

The list of times that people were warned by credible sources or natural events about pending crises but ignored them is long. It includes the Italian town of Pompeii. An earthquake warned the people in 63 AD, but few left; most perished in the 1979 eruption of Mt. Vesuvius. A Yellow Fever epidemic wiped out half of Memphis in the l870s while leaders assured people that it would not make it there from New Orleans. In Colombia, seismologists warned that a volcano would soon erupt in the l980s. Few left; thousands perished. Will this be our fate if we do not attend to early warning signals about the potential impact of peak oil?

On the other hand, history is full of prophecies that did not happen. For example, not much occurred because of the Y2K scare at the end of the millennium; most computers kept going and technological society did not collapse. Biologist Paul Ehrlich’s predictions in his 1968 “The Population Bomb” did not explode, at least not yet. So people are understandably skeptical about doom and gloom scenarios. But before quickly dismissing the multiple threats that peak oil combined with environmental degradation might present, perhaps it would be wise to consider the arguments in these authoritative books.