Peak Oil And Heuristics  

Dave Roberts notes the unfortunate reality of achieving the recognition of peak oil required before people will start to demand (and make) changes.

We might say that an educated citizenry, broadly informed, is a worthy goal. But even should such an Eden be achieved, most people will not know calculus and will not be able to independently assess the vagaries of Saudi oil reserves.

For that vast majority of the populace, the legitimacy of peak oil will hinge on such extraneous factors as the perceived size of the consensus, the political and social status of its advocates, its inclusion in popular media, its place in the 24-hour news cycle, whether it gets mentioned on Oprah. Get a peak oil book on Oprah's book club and boom, your ranks quintuple.

Simply being right, no matter how right you may perceive yourself to be, is not enough to produce change. For that you must indulge in a little branding. You must concern yourself with how your product is perceived in its intended market. Master the intangibles.

Facts and formulas will only take you so far.