Random Notes  

Long-time conservative William F Buckley's comments on peak oil have gathered quite a lot of attention, given the lack of the usual right wing mantra about the markets solving all problems or the CERA style denial of the problem. Even in my most right wing period I've always found Buckley a dubious character - there is a great scene in "Manufacturing Consent" where Buckley is debating Noam Chomsky on a TV program (in a different age where there was actually some diversity of opinion in the mainstream media) with Chomsky sitting upright and looking serious and concerned about the topic while Buckley was slouched so far into his seat that he was almost lying down and maintained a continuous sneer throughout the show. Very interesting contrast in styles.

Reality is even starting to dawn on zealous wingnuts like the American Enterprise Institute, with this article appearing in their house magazine, which provides a moderately interesting overview of the subject (which annoying misrepresents Green views on quite a few occasions) before veering off into the standard pro-nuclear diatribe.

Back in the real world, old-time oil industry commentator Henry Groppe takes a look at the swings in the oil price and why a lot of oil companies are still using US$25 per barrel as their yardstick for deciding whether or not a field is worth developing.

India has set off in search of that holy grail of the 21st century "Energy Independence". I suspect we'll all be energy independent in 50 years time - we just might not have as much energy as we'd like. Meanwhile the Indian press is wondering if the Indian government has caved in to US pressure over the proposed gas pipeline from Iran.

Iran has declared its decision on its nuclear program "irreversible". The Iranian press is talking about an oil embargo if any action is taken against them over the nuclear issue.

RI has a post about Iran that includes a good quote from an Englishman living in Germany in 1939:

How completely isolated a world the German people live in. A glance at the newspapers yesterday and today reminds you of it. Whereas all the rest of the world considers that the peace is about to be broken by Germany, that it is Germany that is threatening to attack Poland over Danzig, here in Germany, in the world the local newspapers create, the very reverse is being maintained. (Not that it surprises me, but when you are away for a while, you forget.) What the Nazi papers are proclaiming is this: that it is Poland which is disturbing the peace of Europe; Poland which is threatening Germany with armed invasion, and so forth. This is the Germany of last September when the steam was turned on Czechoslavakia.

For perverse perversion of the truth, this is good. You ask: But the German people can't possibly believe these lies? Then you talk to them. So many do.

Another developing country is beginning to melt down as the energy crisis deepens for those least able to afford higher oil prices, with the Phillipines calling on all sectors of the economy to reduce energy consumption.

Arroyo called on all sectors and communities to engage in a serious, consistent effort to conserve energy and support all means to bring down overall consumption of energy and exploit alternative sources of fuel. For the first five months of this year, oil imports increased by $2.3 billion from $1.8 billion despite the 8.6 percent decline in the demand for oil compared to the previous year.

The government has said that the looming oil price crisis will be more severe than 1974, 1979 and 1991 is certainly an issue far more important than politics, and its impact will hurt the entire nation. In answer to the crisis, one of the steps being undertaken by the government is to tap the country's indigenous and renewable energy sources - especially geothermal, hydro, solar and other alternative fuels for transportation. The government will also soon launch the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) stations. Several units of CNG buses are now undergoing road testing.

In line with this, the DOE and other agencies of the Executive branch are also working closely with Congress to craft a law that will be most responsive to the country's energy independence agenda. Press Secretary Bunye said the looming crisis is not a simple test of our resiliency as a people, but a real challenge to our economic survival. He strongly urged people to act now to avoid complications later.

Changing tack, bird flu preparations are mostly low key, but reports like this "Biota soars 21.5% on German government drug order" would seem to indicate that plenty of governments are stockpiling anti-virals to hand out to essential services workers if a pandemic begins (I always find things like SARS and bird flu remind me of some of Jay Hanson's predictions, but its probably just paranoia).

The haze over Singapore and Malaysia from Indonesian forest fires continues to thicken, with people being warned to wear masks rather than breathe the air unfiltered.

Malaysia said it would hold crisis talks with Indonesia over the choking haze caused by fires in Sumatra, which has reached hazardous levels and forced Kuala Lumpur's second airport to close. In Port Klang, a major shipping centre just west of the capital Kuala Lumpur, the air pollution index shot up to 410. Several other parts of the country also recorded levels in excess of 300 which is considered officially "hazardous". "If the API hits 500 we will declare it an emergency," Environment Minister Adenan Satem said. "The situation is not getting better, it is getting worse. The cabinet has also instructed me to go to Jakarta to meet our counterparts to identify long-term and short-term measures to fight the haze. We will try to go as soon as possible," he told a press conference. Adenan showed satellite images of Indonesia's Riau and North Sumatra provinces on Sumatra island where hundreds of forest fires are raging, sending pollutants across the Malacca Strait and onto Malaysia's central west coast

Finally, Billmon takes a look at the anti war movement in the US.

Now calling the anti-war movement "anemic" is obviously wrong, since it implies that it actually has a pulse. The truth is that there is nothing that can be plausibly defined as an anti-war "movement" in this country -- just a couple of web sites, some bloggers, a few Democratic congressmen, and an angry Air Force colonel with can of spray paint.

That, plus about 50-60% of the American people, give or take -- at least according to the most recent polls.

There's probably a connection, in other words, between the precipitous decline in popular support for the war and the absence of a highly visible anti-war protest movement that counts people like Jane Fonda among its mascots. As Harold Myerson put it a couple of months ago:

"However perverse this may sound, the absence of an antiwar movement is proving to be a huge political problem for the Bush administration . . . The administration has no one to demonize. With nobody blocking the troop trains, military recruitment is collapsing of its own accord. With nobody in the streets, the occupation is being judged on its own merits."

Without hordes of angry yippies to distract it, the silent majority -- or at least, the non-GOP majority -- has managed to conclude, correctly, that the war cannot be won. Even worse, it seems to have picked up on the fact that the Cheney administration is no longer even trying to win it, but is simply looking frantically for a face-saving way to get out of the swamp. (Or, in Journalish: "lowering its expectations.")

Personally I think there will be American bases in Iraq for as long as the world runs on oil, but who knows, hopefully he's right.