Random Notes  

There was a good documentary on SBS tonight from Germany (pdf) called "Africa: US Oil's New Target", which takes a look at the growing US presence in west Africa which accompanies the growing US dependence on west African oil.

The show featured Daniel Yergin, lots of Michael Klare and the guru of the "Gap" Thomas Barnett and looked at the race for oil between the US and China in the region. Interesting clips feature US soldiers performing miltary exercises in some unspecified country and a segment on Sao Tome that had locals reporting seeing more and more US soldiers there (not to mention black helicopters, judging by the video footage). Klare said west Africa is following the same trajectory that the middle east then central asia followed, with an increasing US military presence as the oil there becomes more important.

In America a horror scenario appears to be looming. At some point in the next twenty years America’s indigenous oil supply will have run out, all the oil wells having been pumped dry.

Securing an alternative energy supply is therefore an issue of urgency for America, which leads the world in per capita energy consumption. For the world’s military superpower, whose weaponry relies on access to a secure oil supply, the issue is also a matter of national security. America’s demand for oil is constantly exceeding supply and more than half the oil required by America now comes from overseas. At the same time it has to compete with an increasingly successful and aggressive major competitor in the global hunt for oil – China.

The invasion of Iraq has not relieved the situation as the price of crude oil remains high and has left the oil markets nervous and in turn, making prices unstable. The American military in Iraq is currently importing the oil it needs. America has therefore set its sights on Africa, which, according to a White House national energy policy document, is predicted to be – together with Latin America – “one of the fastest growing sources of oil and gas” for the future American market. The whole of the coastal sweep of West Africa has become an “oil Dorado”. Sao Tomé, in the Gulf of Guinea and the second smallest country in Africa, is just one example of the region’s potential. Off the coast of this tiny nation lies 24 billion barrels of black gold and some oil industry experts have even described it as a second Kuwait. Oil interests from across the world have now flocked to the nation.

More of the same can be found in Godfrey Hodgson's article "Oil and American Politics" at OpenDemocracy.

The desire to reduce dependence on Saudi Arabia also explains why the administration has tried desperately and will go on trying to find alternative sources of oil imports: in Africa, in Latin America and above all in the ex-Soviet Caspian region. This will not be easy. A high proportion of middle east oil is available for export until the region begins to allow economic development for the benefit of its own people, but most alternative sources of supply export only a small part of their production. Moreover, potential supplier-countries like Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola are hardly models of political stability; and the US faces stringent competition for oil supplies from energy-hungry China.

The Bush administration cannot be blamed for wanting to take robust and effective action to address the immense strategic vulnerability that results from the widening gap between American energy production and American energy consumption. Given the immense shortfall the United States faces, any government that did not make this a high priority would be rightly blamed.

Where the administration has been at fault is in tackling this problem – as it tackles every other one – in an arrogant, unilateral way. Here as elsewhere it seems more concerned about the profits of American corporations, especially those of the corporations in which its friends and supporters have direct interests, than about the welfare of the American people, let alone anyone else. It would have been one thing to put the United States at the head of a coordinated, international effort to reduce dependence on carbon fuels; it is quite another to send American forces around the world – from Colombia to Uzbekistan, from Angola to the Persian Gulf – to oblige the world to meet an American demand for almost half the world’s oil supplies.

Americans as well as citizens of other countries should be concerned about the United States’s militarisation of its own, and the world’s, energy crisis. As recently as the second world war, the United States could present itself as the disinterested guardian of prosperity and justice for all. Today it prefers the posture of a “lone superpower” – understood as “a country that chooses to spends more on military power than anyone else”.

When such a national leadership seeks to retain a wildly disproportionate share of a dwindling world resource by force and the threat of force, refusing to make any serious effort to restrain its consumption of that resource, it is no surprise that it and the government it leads is far less attractive to others than the great, generous democracy of 1945.

And if that wasn't enough for you on that theme, here's an undiplomatic dose from Paul Craig Roberts on Condi Rice's misunderstanding of the role of diplomacy.

No member of the White House staff wants to deliver news to Bush, because the news is bad. Bush demands sycophancy and equates bad news with disagreement and disloyalty.

Little wonder that Republican minority token Condi Rice was dispatched to Princeton last week to inform the university that democracy comes out of the barrel of a gun. US military force, said the secretary of state with a straight face, is required to force democracy down the throats of the Muslims in order to save future American generations from "insecurity and fear."

Condi obviously doesn’t want Bush to put her in the "against us" camp. She told Princeton that she agreed with Bush "that the root cause of September 11 was the violent expression of a global extremist ideology, an ideology rooted in the oppression and despair of the modern Middle East." Every American should be scared to death that a secretary of state can make such an ignorant and propagandistic statement.

Many Middle Eastern countries are ruled by puppets on the American payroll. Even the Saudis are under American protection. If there is oppression in the Middle East, it is because US puppets and protectorates are doing what the US government wants, not what the people they rule want.

The Middle East is in despair because almost a century after the First World War freed Arabs from Turkish occupation, they still cannot get free of US and British occupation.

What kind of fool believes that the way to bring democracy to a country is to invade, destroy cities and infrastructure, and kill and maim tens of thousands of civilians, while creating every possible animosity by aligning with some members of the society against the others?

Condi Rice’s speech at Princeton has branded her as the greatest fool ever to be appointed Secretary of State. The same day that she declared, Mao-like, that democracy comes out of the barrel of a gun, Lt. Gen. William Odom, Director of the National Security Agency during President Reagan’s second term, a scholar with a distinguished career in military intelligence, declared Bush’s invasion of Iraq to be the "greatest strategic disaster in United States history."

Of course, George himself isn't simply a fool - he is as slippery as a bar of soap (sorry - couldn't help myself with that one).

While Mr Roberts is castigating Condi for spouting simple minded propaganda, it should be noted that illegal government propaganda is one of the basic tools used by the current US administration - fat chance they'll ever be held to account for it though - in general, the law only applies to poor people it seems. Although there is a chance at least one small victory for justice may be on the cards, with the corrupt Tom DeLay being indicted again, this time for fraud (even this small nod to the traditions of the past has the nuttier type of freeper calling for a civil war to be unleashed on the Democrats though). Of course, as Billmon notes, rooting out entrenched corruption in the political system can have some very unpleasant side effects even if you are initially successful.

I won't bother saying anything about George's remarkable decision to nominate his family lawyer for a spot on the Supreme Court in spite of the fact she's never been a judge - some things don't really need commentary.

Moving back to more oil related topics, reports at the end of last week were still showing that the Henry Hub was still out of action. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to turn the gas supply back on.

The NYMEX U.S. natural gas delivery point at Henry Hub in Louisiana remained under force majeure on Thursday, as did all points on the Sabine Pipe Line system, a spokesman for the Hub's operator said. Sabine Pipe Line LLC, the Hub's operator, said in a Web site posting that the main station yard had been drained of standing water, but the ground continued to be saturated.

"We now have personnel with the ability to access the interior buildings and structures on the drained portion of the Henry Hub complex," Chevron spokesman Mickey Driver said. Driver added that the Hub would not reopen until a thorough damage assessment was complete. Temporary power generation was being put in place at the Hub, but power remained out in most areas of the system in the wake of Hurricane Rita.

Also this week, NYMEX extended its prior declaration of force majeure on remaining September natural gas deliveries due to the outage at the Hub and declared force majeure for the October contract.

Rigzone has an article on the link between eddies of heated water like the "loop current" in the gulf of mexico and increased hurricane strength.

Meteorologists are learning a great deal as hurricanes pass over the deep, warm waters of the Loop Current, Shay said. "We have long been aware that these currents are an important way for the ocean to distribute heat and energy, but until now, we just didn't have much data on the role they played in building hurricane intensity."

Two days before Hurricane Rita, Black and Rick Lumpkin of AOML, and Peter Niiler of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, deployed surface drifters that measure surface and subsurface thermal conditions while traveling clockwise around a Loop Current warm eddy just south of La. The eddy was lying in the path of Rita.

"This represents one of the most comprehensive ocean-data sets where two major hurricanes passed through the same region," said Frank Marks, director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. "This series of observations is a testament to how new ocean observations are helping us understand hurricane intensity changes."

"The last time there was a season with two Category 5 hurricanes in the same basin was in 1961 with Carla and Hattie," said Shay. "However, the same phenomenon occurred the year before in 1960 with Donna and Ethel."

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita also have much in common with Hurricane Opal, a category 4 storm that occurred a decade ago, on Oct. 4. During Opal, meteorologists first recognized the pivotal role that deep, warm eddies play in quickly building hurricane intensity. Opal encountered a warm- water eddy in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthened in intensity from Category 1 to Category 4 in just 14 hours.

The end of the road may be in sight for US carmakers, judging by the latest sales figures for SUVs vs small (largely imported) cars.

Adam Porter reports that the IEA is beginning to concede that peak oil is real and ole man Hubbert might have been onto something after all. Adam also has a report up at the BBC on the shortage of refineries (which is pushing up prices worldwide for refined products).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) report, “Resources to Reserves: Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future,” has broken step with other oil bodies by directly addressing the concerns of “peak oil” theorists.

In the introductory paragraph Claude Mandil, the IEA’s executive director, wasted no time in examining the subject. He said, “soaring oil prices have again spotlighted the old question. Are we running out of oil? The doomsayers are again conveying grim messages through the front pages of major newspapers. ‘Peak oil’ is now part of the general public’s vocabulary, along with the notion that oil production may have peaked already, heralding a period of inevitable decline.”

Yet Mandil dismissed the idea that this situation is worrisome by stating, “the IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern.”

However not too far later on in the report, the IEA admits that most countries outside of OPEC “have passed their peaks in conventional oil production, or will do so shortly.” They go on to paint a less than optimistic picture of future production in non-OPEC fields.

PeakOil.com notes that France's "Le Monde" has a 10 page article introducing peak oil to their readers. PeakOil.com also has a post on ASEAN, China, Japan, South Korea mulling the creation of an oil stockpile.

Crikey today makes some interesting points about Rupert Murdoch's influence on the Iraq invasion.

Former Fairfax and Optus CEO and current PBL director Chris Anderson made some very interesting comments during The AFR's annual panel discussion about the most powerful people in Australia, which was released in the monthly magazine inside Friday's paper. Anderson, who is a very important figure on the PBL board overseeing investments such as Seek and Foxtel, was quoted as follows about this cultural phenomenon:

"It's a huge cultural change. It's destroying the mass media, no doubt about that and it's changing the way anyone probably under 35 now gets their information. Look at what Google and Yahoo and MSN are do the media, at how important blogging really is whether we like it or not. It's wrecking empires."

Hmmm, don't expect this particular PBL director to vote in favour of a $5 billion bid for Fairfax once the great media free-for-all arrives.

Whilst Graham Morris was talking up his old bosses at News Ltd, Anderson was having none of it. "I'm a huge admirer of Murdoch and he may well be in the top 10, but if he is the second most important person to the average Australian, then I'm a Dutchman."

The average Australian might not realise it Chris, but Australia's support for the Iraq war and George Bush was very much a Murdoch-backed event. If Murdoch's media outlets around the world had taken an anti-war line similar to The Daily Mirror in the UK, Australian troops would probably not be in Iraq today. The invasion would probably not have happened at all, because Tony Blair would have been under huge pressure from The Sun not to support the war and it is unlikely Bush would have completely gone it alone.

Similarly, if Australia's foreign policy position was like New Zealand's, as Mark Latham would have liked it to be, Saturday night's second Bali bombings are less likely to have happened. Australians are the most populous tourists in Bali, although we'll probably now go through another round of political semantics about whether our involvement in Iraq increases the risks of such bombings. Of course it does. You can never know for sure, but the probability of Australians being killed rose with the support of the Iraq invasion.

For some strange reason, Chris Anderson doesn't seem to be able to comprehend all of this as he assesses Rupert Murdoch's power in Australia.

Stirling Newberry at DailyKos has a gloomy look at the future called "Inflation, then Recession, then Catastrophe" which doesn't inspire confidence - it's a bit worrying when some of the more insightful commentators start predicting disaster ahead.

Right now we are on the back side of the insanity curve, this is the point were "sensible" people are going to start taking over, and, as a result, bad is going to get worse. It's in the bag, and nothing is going to happen to stop it. Seriously.

Right now, as with the late Reagan years, America's economy is on a borrow and squander binge. You can throw in Nixon's first term as well. The first thing that happens is that the foot is eased off the gas pedal, and "sensible" people try and do "sensible" things to set everything right. The result is a recession, because sensible people try and simply force the issue. Whatever gains the Democrats make in 2006, and the House and Senate are both in play, the policy they will push is Bush-lite - big military, extraction economy and austerity budgets. This will reproduce Nixon-Ford, Bush Sr, or Hoover - depending on how badly it is messed up.

You see, in circumstances like this - corporate or government - the cost cutters and turtles take charge. The theory is that if the company simply retrenches - say pass big tax increases and service cuts on most people, and try and slam the door shut to the outside world - then everything will be fine again. The inevitable consequences of these policies is to "make the poor pay". The inside corridors of power are already betting that gasoline is going to remain around $3/gallon and up for a long time, jobs will be hard to come by, and the taps of cheap money will dry up.

One sign of this will be a big rush to burn coal as oil, build lots of big plants, attached to big nuclear plants, that will turn rocks in gas. It's already the group think. This will produce $5/gallon gas for about 20 years - a political life time to an old conservative Democrat from a coal bearing state. It's simple, extractive, top down, and requires no changes to anything else. It is a big consumption tax, and will be paid for by more big consumption taxes. Income taxes will stay low for the rich, because the rich are going to loan themselves the money to build all those big plants. Clever how that works out.

The next year will see rising inflationary pressures, as increases in raw materials and a federally financed building binge happens. Lots of happy construction workers, concrete companies, contractors and other largess giving groups. The American people will be presented with an American solution to oil dependence - namely "global warming? what's that?"

There is, as I said, nothing you can do about this.

Anyone getting into power will have to find make work for all the other unhappy exurbanites while the phony fuel economy gets ramped up. The solution will be to expand the military, and keep bases open all over the place, and borrow lots of money from the Social Security revenue stream. This will be augmented by a new VAT tax to pay for medicare/medicaid, which will run a surplus that will be raided to pay for it. We already have a flat tax in this country, what we will get is a steeply regressive tax regime.

This will rob money from people who actually make things, and give it to people who stand around on military bases, and people who make holes in the ground and pollution. It will be very popular, until, of course, it collapses in a heap as oil prices continue to spiral upwards.

At least I expect this sort of thing from Matt Savinar at LATOC, who has put a "Post Crash preparation blueprint" up for sale (written by Steve from Deconsumption).

For those who think the end really is nigh - and personally I'm hoping any crash is of the slow variety so the need to adopt Viridian solutions becomes obvious to even the most benighted extractionist - and haven't got their own solar and mciro-wind power generators in place (and I offer this advice at no charge), Boing Boing notes (indirectly) that a Lister engine plus a bit of biodiesel may help cushion your fall over the Olduvai Cliff.

For those of you with a strange mechanical penchant, or a wild-eyed post-Apocalyptic wishlist, here is the toy for you! It's a piece of early 20th-century British design, now made in India. Runs a house with 9000 watts on .3 gallons of biodiesel per hour (!!!) and can be serviced with flat rocks and grass clippings (well, almost.) They weigh quite a bit, but who cares? No MOS chips, integrated circuits, explosive fuels, or cheap metal parts that aren't meant to be serviced by the owner. Rumors are for some of these engines lasting >100,000 hours with regular maintenance. Wow. Plus, they're just neat machines to look at - dinosaurs that earn their keep.

While I'd never heard of Lister engines, simply mentioning them to a few friends (who clearly fall into the "those of you with a strange mechanical penchant" category) provoked a firestorm of childhood anecdotes and enthusiastic responses like this:

Ah the old lister raises it's head again. You can drag these out of the bottom of the sea, or a barn in my case and almost be sure that it will start and run for ever. Amazing engines. If you see one come up for grabs, even without the gennie, I would think about getting it. You never see them anymore, and they are glorious engines to live with. Love the idea of using one as a power source....

There was also an accompanying bombardment of Lister puns with the low point being a link to "Schindlers Lister" (I don't read Swedish but I presume the subject matter is unrelated) which is presumably revenge for my unfortunate tendency to make jokes about "Schindlers Lift" whenever I get into one make of lift.

I'll finish with a graph from the Pastafarians doing an imitation of Michael Crichton and noting the the inverse relationship between average global temperature and the number of pirates in the world (note - Pastafarianism, like other religions, should be practiced in moderation, as excessive devotion to religious beliefs is dangerous to society - Past Peak has some graphs to demonstrate this).