Ski Bummer  

Grist has an article looking at the problems global warming poses for the ski industry worldwide - their conclusion : it's all downhill from here.

With the Olympics starting this week, all eyes are on the slopes of Turin. But skiing and snowboarding could disappear from our collective culture in about 50 years, if global-warming forecasts ring true. In a lot of popular ski areas, there simply won't be any snow.

It's already happening in parts of Europe: They're wrapping glaciers in Switzerland, and Scottish Highlands ski areas are being recast as mountain-biking destinations. In the U.S., resorts in the Pacific Northwest got a harbinger last season when a warm winter led to a 78 percent drop in skier visits.

Global warming, of course, will impact practically every aspect of life the world over, and recreational plights won't be our biggest worry. But right now, the ski industry is the perfect coal-mine canary for its fallout. And while no single industry can reverse climate change, enlightened self-interest is driving ski areas to adopt a wide range of innovative energy measures to prolong their survival -- and maybe ours.

The center of the green skiing movement in the U.S. is Aspen, a place not exactly known for reducing consumption of anything ... Aspen has enacted a top-to-bottom program to conserve energy and water and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, incorporating green buildings, a mini-hydroelectric plant, biodiesel-driven groomers, and wind power purchases. This year, the company became the first resort of any kind to join the Chicago Climate Exchange, North America's first voluntary, legally binding emissions-trading market. Aspen has even set up a consulting business to help other resorts and businesses go green.

The Independent asks "Is it possible to ski without ruining the environment ?", also looks at the impact of global warming on the ski industry.

From the ski tourism-induced traffic pollution and increasing urban sprawl of hotels and holidays homes in former Alpine villages to the visually intrusive and habitat-wrecking ski lifts, the ski industry's environmental record is in all honesty more a contender for the wooden spoon than any Olympic medal.

Luckily, Europe's ski industry is waking up to its environmental responsibilities - just in the nick of time. The spectre of global warming, which has already pretty much seen off the Scottish ski industry, is now stalking the Alps. Scientists have found that rising temperatures are already leading to changes in snowfall patterns. "Alpine areas below 1,600m are now receiving 20 per cent less snow," says Birgit Ottmer from the Davos-based Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research.

This is bad news for Princes Charles, Wills and Harry, who'll find that their favourite Swiss ski resort of Klosters, at just 1,300m, will soon be surrounded by muddy fields in the depth of winter.

The long-term forecast is even bleaker. "Within 50 years all ski resorts below 1,200m won't have a chance and will go out of business," says Michel Revaz of the Liechtenstein-based Alpine conservation society Cipra. This warning is setting off alarm bells right across Europe's lower-altitude ski resorts, no more so than in Austria where 75 per cent of the ski lifts are built below 1,000m.

The threat posed by global warming to the European ski industry is now being felt right across the Alps. "The French ski industry is very worried for the future as we are having less snow than we used to," admits Jean-Louis Tuaillon, who oversees the pistes at Tignes, one of the many French resorts which attract over a third of the one million British skiers and boarders who head to the Alps every winter.

To try to prevent financial meltdown resorts are increasingly having to rely on making their own snow.

Elsewhere in The Independent Tony Blair has warned that there is less than 7 years to do something to save the planet from global warming (he obviously falls into the 2012 end of the world camp).

Tony Blair has warned world leaders they have less than seven years to save the planet. The Prime Minister was accused of double standards over climate change after he urged the US, China and India to join a global offensive to tackle the problem.

Mr Blair told the liaison committee of senior MPs: "I think that if we don't get the right agreement internationally for the period after which the Kyoto protocol will have expired - that's 2012 - we are in serious trouble."

He said there was "the beginnings of an international consensus" and praised President George Bush for last week acknowledging America's "addiction to oil" but called on the US to go further.

Mr Blair dismissed calls for a levy on air travel to cut carbon emissions caused by the rise in cheap flights. A tax would need to be "hefty" to be effective, he said.

Peter Ainsworth, the shadow Environment Secretary, said: "Aviation is probably the hardest part of the climate change challenge, but we must face up to it. To walk away with a defeatist shrug is irresponsible."

Oil prices have been tumbling the past few days (causing great pain to those of us long energy stocks) which is quite surprising given the Iran standoff, Venezuelan threats to interrupt supplies to the US, troubles in Nigeria and now a shutoff of exports from Ecuador. Unexpectedly large US inventories are being blamed for the price falls.

While Iran’s oil is still flowing Ecuador, the fifth largest oil producer in Latin America has temporarily stopped production.

State owned oil company, Petroecuador, has suspended its exports after hundreds of protesters stormed a pumping station demanding the government suspend trade talks with the United States.

The pipeline moves all of Petroecuador's production.

Petroecuador declared force majeure, freeing it from its contractual obligations, until the dispute could be resolved, which according to a company spokesman could last a couple of days.

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OPEC oil output in January fell to its lowest level since February 2005 as maintenance cut production from the United Arab Emirates and militant attacks hit Nigerian exports, a Reuters’ survey showed.

Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January from December to 29.54 million bpd, according to the survey of consultants, shippers, oil industry and OPEC sources.

Maintenance at Murban, the largest oilfield in the UAE, cut exports by 150,000 barrels per day. Exports at Murban are expected to recover in February.

Militant attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria cut exports by a net total of around 30,000 bpd.

The Energy Blog and In The Wake (Feb 6) have posts on a new solar power plant project in Nevada that is the world's largest. Both note that the energy is destined for military rather than residential use (with In The Wake having a less than glowing analysis of why - if you scroll down about the Feb 3 post on metal theft is quite interesting too).

For those of you who are wondering when photovoltaics would become competitive with grid power this announcement may answer your question. As noted at the end this deal is not available for residential installations.

Powered by Renewables (PBR) of Nevada, announced today it will partner with SunEdison to develop the world's largest solar photovoltaic project in Nevada. The 18 megawatt project almost doubles what is currently the world's largest PV project (10MW) located in Germany.

PBR and SunEdison will develop a total of 36 MWs of PV projects in Nevada, enough energy to power 36,000 homes. The proposed project will be privately owned and operated. The military intends to purchase electricity from the project.

SunEdison pays for, installs, owns and operates solar installations. Customers pay a fixed rate that is at or below current electricity prices for the solar electricity generated from these panels for ten years. SunEdison does not finance residential installations at this time.

While its good to see major solar projects taking off, another post at The Energy Blog puts this into context - elsewhere in Nevada a new coal fired (not IGCC) plant is being constructed to provide up to 2500 MW of power (in contrast to the 20 MW world record solar power plant).

This announcement confirms that we have not seen the end of large coal fired generation plants. Also note that they say that the complex will be expanded with two gasification units when that technology becomes commercially viable. With ten other companies having announced that they were planning on building gasification units, at least one scheduled to be completed by 2010, they seem to be taking a very conservative stance. And some have thought that we have not seen the end of increased demands for electricity--2,500 MW when complete.

Here is Sydney the proposed water desalination plant has been dumped, with the government getting wet, oops - I mean cold, feet about voter resentment over this high cost, vicious circle solution to the steady drop in dam levels. Their public reason is the miraculous discovery of hitherto unknown water sources, which hopefully is just a face saving way of saying they'll be going down the cheap, obvious and sane path of increasing water recycling.

Sydney's unpopular desalination plant will be put on ice by the State Government after a community outcry and fears that it would cost the Labor Party votes at the March 2007 election.

Cabinet met yesterday and was presented with the initial results of drilling in western Sydney, which revealed there might be up to 30 gigalitres a year of groundwater in aquifers. That would nearly match the 45 gigalitres a year that might have been produced by the Kurnell desalination plant.

The groundwater has been known about for several years, but the scale of the reserves was untested. The most recent testing provides the Government with the political figleaf to put the plant on hold for several years. The reserves are large enough to provide additional water for several years. But mining the aquifers will raise questions of the environmental effects of extracting groundwater on this scale. Cities such as Perth have used groundwater to augment supply.

Elsewhere in The Herald they report that BP has followed in Exxon's footsteps (who are saying that US dreams of independence from foreign oil are just that) in announcing a record annual profit thanks to rising oil prices. Plus Ross Gittins has a column on the environmental impact of the industrialisation of India and China (prompted by the release of this year's Worldwatch Institute report).

The greatest economic, geopolitical and environmental event of our times is the rapid economic development of China, closely followed by India. I'm sure you know that, but its full ramifications are yet to dawn on us.

The bit we haven't twigged to is what it might do to the environment.

Two hundred years ago, the countries of the West experienced an industrial revolution that eventually made them far, far richer than all other countries.

What's happening now is that China and India are going through their own industrial revolutions. But it's taking decades, rather than centuries, because they're able to pick up off the shelf the latest Western technology, as well as Western capital to finance massive investment in factories and infrastructure.

What makes this spectacular growth far more significant, however, is that China and India are the two most populous countries in the world, each with populations exceeding a billion. Between them, they account for almost 40 per cent of the world's population. By contrast, the rich countries of North America, Europe, Japan and Australasia account for less than 15 per cent.

What happens when two such huge countries sustain such rapid rates of economic growth? Well, for a start, you get a lot of growth in international trade, since both countries are pursuing export-oriented growth strategies.

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The next effect is the two countries' rapidly growing appetite for energy, food and raw materials, which perpetually threatens to outstrip supply and thus keeps upward pressure on world prices. According to a briefing paper on energy insecurity from the Lowy Institute, China is the second largest consumer of energy in the world (after the United States), while India has moved into sixth place.

We're most conscious of the effect of demand on oil prices. By 2030, China is expected to be importing three-quarters of the oil it needs, while India imports more than 90 per cent. But oil accounts for only between a quarter and a third of the two countries' total energy consumption. Most of the rest comes from … coal. (Sound of Aussie cash registers chinking.)

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Ask yourself what happens if the Chinese and Indian economies double in the next decade. Remember that China already uses 26 per cent of the world's crude steel, 32 per cent of the rice, 37 per cent of the cotton and 47 per cent of the cement.

"Global ecosystems and resources are simply not sufficient to sustain the current economies of the industrial West and at the same time bring more than 2 billion people into the global middle class through the same resource-intensive development model pioneered by North America and Europe," the institute concludes. "Limits on the ability to increase oil production, shortages of fresh water, and the economic impacts of damaged ecosystems and rapid climate change are among the factors that make it impossible to continue current patterns on such a vastly larger scale.

"Humanity is now on a collision course with the world's ecosystems and resources. In the coming decades, we will either find ways of meeting human needs based on new technologies, policies and cultural values, or the global economy will begin to collapse."

Scott Ritter is still predicting a US attack on Iran (though as he's been saying this for almost 2 years I think he's flogging a dead horse in terms of trying to get people's attention - though it does appear probable he'll finally be proved right in a couple of months time). Russian wingnut Vladimir Zhirinovsky is saying the same thing - and he claims the date is set for March 28 (Israel's election day).

Scottish Power is warning of big price rises

The energy group Scottish Power today warned households to expect another "significant" rise in fuel bills. The warning follows unconfirmed reports that British Gas is planning a big rise in gas prices over the next few weeks. Consumers have already seen energy bills rise by 40% in two years.

Scottish Power blamed rising wholesale gas prices. The company increased prices in October, saying a 70% rise in wholesale energy costs since April had forced it to increase charges.

Renewable Energy Access has an article on the case for renewables vs LNG for Californian power requirements.

Let's look at some numbers. Right now we need about 6.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day to heat our homes and run our power plants. The California Energy Commission - the state's official word in this area - projects that by 2016, that number will rise to 6.6 billion cubic feet. So we need to find an additional 400 million cubic feet per day in the next decade.

Before we start asking how we're going to meet that need, let's look at what we need the natural gas for. In California, about half of our power plants use natural gas to generate electricity - which can be generated by other energy sources, such as wind and solar power, and the rest is used for heating, cooking and industry. Natural gas for electricity generation is the only area expected to grow appreciably. So instead of trying to find a source for 400 million cubic feet per day of natural gas in the next ten years, let's instead look for its equivalent: about 43,000 gigawatt hours of electricity per year.

California law requires that twenty percent of our electricity come from renewable resources by 2010, about 55,000 gigawatt hours per year - more than enough to meet the 43,000 gigawatt hours we're looking for. (And the amount from renewables will probably be higher, as the state is considering advancing its goal so that thirty-three percent of all electricity would be produced by renewables by 2020.)

But that's not all. We haven't even yet asked whether we could reduce demand through conservation and more efficient technology. California's investor-owned utilities recently received $2 billion in state funding to achieve $5 billion in energy efficiency savings, equivalent to more than 10,000 gigawatt hours a year through 2008. The state also has set an achievable goal of saving 23,000 gigawatt hours per year by 2013.

Under these existing mandates, we will more than offset future energy demand just by following the path that the state and the utilities already have in place. Even if you wanted to hedge your bets, there are sixteen new LNG import terminals already approved by regulators elsewhere in the U.S. and Baja California, as well as plans for gas pipelines from Canada and Alaska - all of which could funnel more natural gas our way if needed.

While natural gas is certainly cleaner and a preferable choice over oil or coal, let us not forget this it is still a non-renewable source of energy and a potentially explosive fuel. It is our belief that opting for LNG may divert attention from renewable energy and energy efficiency - the far more preferable alternatives.

REA also takes a look at why Shell sold its PV power division to SolarWorld - they have decided to focus on newer, thin film technology.

Last week Royal Dutch Shell's prominent solar division bowed out of the crystalline solar industry, agreeing to sell all of its yearly solar crystalline production capacity to SolarWorld. The move represents SolarWorld's increasing global footprint as it seeks to expand beyond its own borders in Germany to other promising markets such as the U.S. It also, however, represents one of the first major industry reshufflings that can be attributed to the crippling shortage of raw material for the photovoltaic (PV) industry.

Call it a silicon shortage, or an insatiable demand outstripping supply, but however it's spun, it's been the bane of every segment of the solar industry. High purity solar-grade silicon is an essential component of approximately 90 percent of the solar market and without an adequate supply, cell and module manufacturers are hampered in their ability to produce the volumes of PV modules the global market demands. This prevents the industry's growth and economies of scale from translating into lower costs for consumers. And in the worst cases, it prevents solar installers from even being able to secure the modules they need to meet their customers' basic needs.

A combination of the tight silicon supply and a very strong German market fed by high value government incentives is actually driving solar costs higher and making the technology less competitive says Tim O'Leary, Manager, External Affairs Shell Renewables & Hydrogen. He said that the expectation is for this situation to remain the same for quite some time, well into 2007-2008.

"We had supply problems throughout 2005, worsening an already difficult situation," said O'Leary. "At the same time, terms and conditions to secure more silicon were aggressive and not acceptable to Shell. The silicon dependence of crystalline will remain a challenge to the industry and as such Shell has decided to focus on next-generation technologies."

That focus will instead be on CIS thin film solar, based principally on Copper, Indium and Selenium. The cells typically produce a lower total energy output than crystalline solar cells but they're also cheaper to manufacture; most of all, they don't rely on silicon. And the efficiencies are coming up. Last fall, Shell announced its CIS solar had achieved 13.5 percent efficiency, a new world record for thin-film.

In Japan, Kaneka has followed Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in announcing the construction of additional solar panel fabrication capacity.

Kaneka Corp. will invest approximately 5 billion yen [USD $42.5 million] into its subsidiary plant in Toyooka, Hyogo prefecture, western Japan so it can increase its annual solar PV production capacity from 30 MW to 55 MW by mid-2007. In 2008, the company is anticipating an additional 15 MW, bringing its total annual capacity in Japan up to 70 MW. According to the company, Kaneka's plan recognizes a growing demand for solar modules and cells to address environmental issues, especially in Europe, and plans to shorten delivery times and lower distribution costs.

Dan Gillmor notes that hearings into Bush's illegal wiretap campaign start next Monday (one more Damocles sword to add to Fitzgerald's latest grand jury in case enough people get tired of the Bush/Cheney act before 2008 and decide its time for some replacements to be moved in).

Specter is a former prosecutor, and no liberal. But you can be sure the screw-the-Constitution crowd will be all over him for locating enough spine to tell the truth.

Specter Says Surveillance Program Violated the Law. The Republican who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee said today that he believed the Bush administration had violated the law with its warrantless surveillance program and that its legal justifications for the program were "strained and unrealistic." The program "is in flat violation of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act," said the chairman, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who will open committee hearings on Monday.

Digby also comments on internal Republican divisions on the issue.

The White House has been twisting arms to ensure that no Republican member votes against President Bush in the Senate Judiciary Committee’s investigation of the administration's unauthorized wiretapping.

Congressional sources said Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove has threatened to blacklist any Republican who votes against the president. The sources said the blacklist would mean a halt in any White House political or financial support of senators running for re-election in November.

"It's hardball all the way," a senior GOP congressional aide said.

The sources said the administration has been alarmed over the damage that could result from the Senate hearings, which began on Monday, Feb. 6. They said the defection of even a handful of Republican committee members could result in a determination that the president violated the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Such a determination could lead to impeachment proceedings.

Seeing The Forest also has a couple of links worth following on the abuse of executive power.

The End of the Republic

When the president believes he can order someone on US soil killed because he thinks he's a terrorist, when the Senate refuses to censure administration officials who lie under oath to it, when the argument about spying on Americans without a court order is about "you didn't come to us to get permission first" - well, the corpse may be stumbling along, but it's a zombie.