Ecopunkt  

WorldChanging has an interesting post that compares the distributed assault on the environment to John Robb's idea of "global guerilla" systempunkt. I wonder if anyone has categorised all the different scenarios that lead to collapse yet ?

Jamais goes on to consider how we can attempt reverse global warming by defending (and reinforcing) various ecopunkt points.

The Earth's environment, particularly its climate, is not a linear, obvious-cause and immediate-effect system. This has a number of implications, but the one that troubles many of us who pay close attention is the resulting potential for "phase change" shifts in the climate system, where seemingly-small perturbations lead to a major change in how the climate behaves (the classic example of this kind of change is a pile of sand with grains dropping down on the peak; some will slide down, some will stack up, but eventually the entire peak will collapse, radically changing the shape of the pile). As we develop the tools and techniques to better understand the overall global climate and ecological system, these "tipping points" should be at the top of our list of processes to identify and, if at all possible, defend.

This concept of particular points of environmental vulnerability bears a striking resemblance to a seemingly very different concern: the vulnerability of economies and societies to attack by those who would intentionally do harm. Analyst John Robb, in his Global Guerillas weblog (which should be required reading for all of us), calls these points of vulnerability systempunkt (we first mentioned this over a year ago); we could, in turn, think of these points of environmental vulnerability as ecopunkt. Robb defines "systempunkt" in this way:

In Blitzkrieg warfare, the point of greatest emphasis is called a schwerpunkt. It is the point, often identified by lower level commanders, where the enemy line may be pierced by an explosive combination of multiple weapon systems. [...] In global guerrilla warfare (a combination of open source innovation, bazaar transactions, and low tech weapons), the point of greatest emphasis is called a systempunkt. It is the point in a system (either an infrastructure or a market), always identified by autonomous groups within the bazaar, where a swarm of small insults will cause a cascade of collapse in the targeted system.[...] The ultimate objective of this activity, in aggregate, is the collapse of the target state and globalization.

Working with that description, we could define "ecopunkt" as: the point in an ecological system where a swarm of small insults will cause a cascade of collapse, leading to a chaotic destabilization of the environmental system.

Although we don't have dedicated groups of antagonists targeting environmental points of vulnerability in order to destabilize the climate (it just seems that way sometimes...), the risks arising from multiple ecopunkt are nonetheless profound. The "swarm of small insults" need not be intentional, or even obviously damaging; the cumulative effect of myriad seemingly-rational decisions can have be profoundly dangerous to the environment. Moreover, these ecopunkt could become intentional targets, if a political entity decides that the likely environmental disruptions would be less damaging to themselves than to their opponents.

One of these ecopunkt points is the Arctic, where the pace (and feedback effects) of global warming are at their greatest. The Observer reports that pollution is "soaring to crisis levels in Arctic", with scientists pleading for "action to save poles from 'tipping point' disaster".

Researchers have uncovered compelling evidence that indicates Earth's most vulnerable regions - the North and South Poles - are poised on the brink of a climatic disaster.

The scientists, at an atmospheric monitoring station in the Norwegian territory of Svalbard, have found that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere near the North Pole are now rising at an unprecedented pace.

In 1990 this key cause of global warming was rising at a rate of 1 part per million (ppm). Recently, that rate reached 2 ppm per year. Now, scientists at the Mount Zeppelin monitoring station have discovered it is rising at between 2.5 and 3 ppm.

'The fact that our data now show acceleration in the rise of carbon dioxide level is really a source for concern,' said Professor Johan Strom, of Stockholm University's department of applied environmental science, which runs the Mount Zeppelin station. 'The increase is also seen at other stations, but our Zeppelin data show the strongest increase.'

In the last two decades, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen from 350 to 380 ppm and scientists warn that once levels reach 500, there could be irreversible consequences that would tip the planet toward disaster: glacier melts triggering devastating sea-level rises and spreading deserts across Africa and Asia.

Scientists and campaigners are desperate for politicians to reach agreements that will prevent the 500 ppm 'tipping point' being breached in the next half-century. These new data suggest they may have a far shorter period of time in which to act.

One theory proposed by Strom is that heating of the oceans could be leading to the release of carbon dioxide. Other scientists suggest that as the world warms, the Arctic tundra - previously gripped by permafrost - may be giving off carbon dioxide as it melts, releasing gas from vegetation trapped within it that has now started to rot. Thus levels of the gas would increase with particular rapidity near the North Pole.

The latest data from Mount Zeppelin comes in the wake of a series of other alarming reports about the effects of global warming in the Arctic and Antarctic. It was recently discovered that ice sheets are now covering less of the Arctic Ocean than ever before; that Greenland is shedding sheets of ice far faster than previously realised; that the West Antarctic ice cap is dwindling at an unexpectedly high rate; and that the Gulf Stream is showing worrying signs of being disrupted by Arctic meltwaters.

Stuart at The Oil Drum also has some analysis of an article in The Independent on "The Melting Polar Ice Cap".

Grist has a post on one of the many unpleasant side effects of tar sands extraction.

Illnesses including leukemia and lymphomas are cropping up at greater than expected rates in a First Nations community near oil sands in Canada's Alberta province. Elders at Fort Chipewyan say incidence of disease started rising when the oil industry started extracting and processing hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil a day near their community of about 1,200 people. Area medical examiner John O'Connor says he'd like to figure out what's going on before more oil developments are approved; he's diagnosing unusually high numbers of immune-system diseases, and has also treated five community members for a fatal cancer that typically occurs in one out of 100,000 people. O'Connor is negotiating with federal health officials to start an epidemiological investigation ASAP. Alberta's oil sands are estimated to hold between 1.7 trillion and 2.5 trillion barrels of oil -- second only to reserves in Saudi Arabia -- and production is set to quadruple in the next 25 years.

China is reportedly going to begin filling on of its strategic oil reserves this year (it seems they are busily constructing a whole lot of them around the country).

China expects to start filling its strategic oil reserves at Zhenhai in the eastern province of Zhejiang by the end of this year, the minister who heads the country's economic planning agency said Monday.

Ma Kai, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said construction of the 16-tank Zhenhai facility was finished. Three more strategic oil reserve facilities are due to be completed in 2007 and 2008, he told reporters on the sidelines of China's annual lemgislative session.

New Zealand's efforts to drill its away out of their impending natural gas deficit are being stymied by the difficulty of obtaining rigs.

The UK gas shortage seems to have reached dire straits much earlier than NZ's, with the BBC reporting "Gas shortage sends prices soaring".

UK natural gas prices hit a new record on Monday, as supply troubles forced National Grid to issue an alert asking industrial users to curb their usage. The wholesale price of gas deliverable today quadrupled to as much as 255 pence a therm due to supply fears.

Gas supplies are tight at the moment because the country's main storage facility is shut and the recent cold snap has seen domestic usage soar. If they get worse, industrial users could see their supplies shut off.

UK Conservative leader David Cameron seems to be sensing the way the wind is blowing and is going green, riding his bike to work and reportedly having a wind turbine installed at home.

The UK Telegraph (normally very conservative) also has a report on an SAS soldier quitting the Army "in disgust at 'illegal' American tactics in Iraq". Its interesting that the Army gave him an honourable discharge - maybe some of the top brass feels the same way...

An SAS soldier has refused to fight in Iraq and has left the Army over the "illegal" tactics of United States troops and the policies of coalition forces.

After three months in Baghdad, Ben Griffin told his commander that he was no longer prepared to fight alongside American forces. He said he had witnessed "dozens of illegal acts" by US troops, claiming they viewed all Iraqis as "untermenschen" - the Nazi term for races regarded as sub-human.

On Wednesday, the pre-trial hearing will begin into the court martial of Flt Lt Malcolm Kendall-Smith, a Royal Air Force doctor who has refused to return to Iraq for a third tour of duty on the grounds that the war is illegal. Mr Griffin's allegations came as the Foreign Office minister Kim Howells, visiting Basra yesterday, admitted that Iraq was now "a mess".

Mr Griffin eventually told SAS commanders at Hereford that he could not take part in a war which he regarded as "illegal". He added that he now believed that the Prime Minister and the Government had repeatedly "lied" over the war's conduct. "I did not join the British Army to conduct American foreign policy," he said. He expected to be labelled a coward and to face a court martial and imprisonment after making what "the most difficult decision of my life" last March.

Instead, he was discharged with a testimonial describing him as a "balanced, honest, loyal and determined individual who possesses the strength of character to have the courage of his convictions".

Continuing the military theme, Energy Bulletin has featured a number of interesting articles on the US Military and their response to peak oil (other than invading Iraq), much of which is quite positive in terms of their determined efforts to increase energy efficiency and adopt renewable energy. Bart writes:

I'm more sanguine about the role of the military than AF. Within the military and intelligence communities, there seems to be a lack of enthusiasm for unproductive resource wars. See the talks by Ex-CIA directors James R. Schlesinger and James Woolsey as well as the work of Gal Luft at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS).

Is the unlikely alliance described in the following article more widely possible?

You wouldn't have thought it possible: a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency drawing a standing ovation from a room full of left-leaning environmentalists right here in Eugene.

But that's exactly what happened at the University of Oregon's Public Interest Environmental Law Conference Saturday afternoon as R. James Woolsey - the nation's chief "spook" under President Bill Clinton from 1993-1995 - spoke passionately about the need to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil.

"There is a moral dimension to this," Woolsey said. "We should be good custodians of the Earth.

And if that means creating an unlikely alliance between national security hawks, American farmers, Christian evangelicals, liberal do-gooders and tree-hugging environmentalists, Woolsey said, that's just fine with him.

"All these groups are starting to come around on this set of issues," he said...

"Speaker inspires no-oil thinking" in the Eugene Register Guard, March 5, 2006.

Jeff Vail has "More On Oil..., which includes a graphic I've seen before but that I think I've neglected to post.



MSN Money has followed Jeff Vail's lead with an article about rogue Economist John Williams and his theory about the systematic under-estimation of inflation and unemployment numbers.

Last weekend, the always-terrific Kate Welling published an interview with an economist named John Williams. It will be available on the free portion of her "pay" site via this link starting March 11. This article is the first one that I have seen in which all the flaws in the government data, pertaining to the Consumer Price Index, unemployment, Gross Domestic Product, etc., are disclosed in one piece by someone who's been following the data for a long time.

I have been aware of nearly all the statistical tricks used by the government since they were implemented. Nonetheless, seeing them collectively described in one article is incredibly sobering. Having said that, there is a bit more "black helicopter" insinuation and fewer data points than I would like to see in an article such as this. However, the main points are the math that most folks need to know, but likely do not.

Once you read it, think about it and understand it, you will see why so many thoughtful people -- like Jim Grant, Warren Buffett, Marc Faber, Bill Gross, Fred Hickey and Paul Volcker -- have grave concerns about the future of the dollar (due to the macro imbalances that exist today).

In fact, reading this article, you will conclude that there's no way out, short of running the printing presses. The problem with that end game: At some point, foreigners will revolt.

In more positive news, TreeHugger reports on the rapid spread of compact fluorescent light globes in South Africa.

In news just to hand, 500 million [ !! ] energy-saving compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) will be distributed to households affected by power outages in South Africa's Cape Town. This will lower peak demand by about 100 megawatts. Across the Atlantic, 30,000 of the bulbs will likewise be given to Jamaican and Cuban householders who swap their incandescant bulbs. These are but two of the stories you can read on a new website promoting the use of compact fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs.

TreeHugger also has a post on the oil spill on Alaska's North Slope.

And to close, a well done hoax which had me wondering for a brief moment if it was true - featuring the Rodent publically pondering if he had committed a terrible error by participating in the invasion of Iraq. Its worth reading even though it, as Crikey points out, isn't true (at least one foreign blogger fell for it though, along with a few peak oil discussion group posters). Crikey also had an interesting post on politicisation of the intelligence services yesterday.

"During our recent celebrations of the Coalition's ten years in power, I have, as Prime Minister, been publicly reflecting on our Party's many great achievements, as was appropriate to do. But on this occasion, among old friends and senior colleagues, I wish to share some unsettling thoughts about the situation in Iraq."

...

"We have been lucky up to this point, because the full extent of the mayhem resulting from our U.N sanctioned occupation has not been dwelt upon by the Australian media. You can draw your own conclusions why this is so. However, having been kept well briefed on the conflict by our intelligence agencies, and I can assure you that many unpleasant details are still to emerge."

"Under international law, all military forces owe a 'duty of care' to the civilians of an occupied city. And I am starting to ask myself if this is a commitment we have betrayed. In fact, I dare to wonder if we have betrayed the very ideals that I invoked in my support of the invasion."

"There is tremendous pressure from the US for our troops to remain in Iraq, and of course mutual loyalty is a vital component of the alliance. But the longer the Coalition of the Willing remains, the more we are detested, and the more blood is shed. The country is already tearing itself apart, so I am asking you, could our departure really make it any worse?"

"Flying home from India, I started to ask myself what a leader like Mahatma Gandhi would do, but I feared I would not be able to live up to the answer, unless I have some wise advice form my longtime friends. Please look into your hearts and let me know what you find."