Getting The Horn For Oil  

Slate has an article on the book "Untapped: The Scramble for Africa's Oil".

The United States now imports more of its oil from Africa than it does from Saudi Arabia. How is oil and the money it brings to the continent's treasuries transforming Africa? For his new book, Untapped: The Scramble for Africa's Oil, John Ghazvinian traveled from the parched dust bowls of Chad and Sudan to the swamps and jungles of Nigeria and the Congo, and from the corridors of Washington to the gleaming offices of "Big Oil." Does oil-producing Africa live up to the hype? Why is it impossible to buy bananas in Gabon, when they grow in profusion in the nation's virgin rainforest? Can an underdeveloped country like São Tomé and Príncipe learn from other nations' mistakes and avoid the "curse of oil"? What effect does the establishment of an oil-company compound in the middle of Chad have on the neighboring land and people? This week, we are publishing four excerpts from Untapped that answer these questions.

Although Africa has long been known to be rich in oil, extracting it hadn't seemed worth the effort and risk until recently. But with the price of Middle Eastern crude skyrocketing, and advancing technology making reserves easier to tap, the region has become the scene of a competition between major powers that recalls the 19th-century scramble for colonization. Already, the United States imports more of its oil from Africa than from Saudi Arabia, and China, too, looks to the continent for its energy security.

Does Africa measure up to the hype? After all, the entire continent is believed to contain, at best, 10 percent of the world's proven oil reserves, making it a minnow swimming in an ocean of seasoned sharks. Africa is unlikely ever to "replace" the Middle East or any other major oil-producing region. So why the song and dance? Why all the goose bumps? Why do so many influential people in Washington let themselves get so carried away when they talk about African oil?

A while ago I took little look at oil in Somalia and Sudan (as usual, buried amongst lots of other stuff), so here are a few snippets on what has been going on in the meantime.

Ethiopia invaded Somalia (or whatever you want to call the anarchy loosely held together by the "Islamic Courts Union") a while ago now and is now starting to fall into the usual 4GW bear pit that we've been watching in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Insurgents shot an Ethiopian helicopter gunship out of the sky and mortar shells slammed into a hospital yesterday during the heaviest fighting in the Somali capital since the early 1990s, leaving corpses in the streets and wounding hundreds of civilians. By official count, 30 people have been killed since Thursday. But the fighting was so severe and so widespread in Mogadishu that bodies were not being picked up or even tallied, and residents said that hundreds more were believed to be dead across the city of 1 million people.

The violence came on the second day of an offensive in the capital by Somali government troops and their Ethiopian allies to quash an increasingly lethal insurgency. The insurgents are linked to the Council of Islamic Courts, which was driven from power in December by Somali and Ethiopian soldiers, accompanied by U.S. Special Forces.

Mohamed Deq Abukar Aroni, who was carrying two mattresses on his head as he fled, said he had never before abandoned his home in one of the world's most violent cities. "But today I'm fleeing because shells are hitting residential areas indiscriminately," said Aroni, whose children carried two small paper bags of belongings. "I saw two of my neighbors get killed. I'm not going to stay here anymore."

Hospitals were overwhelmed and bodies were scattered in the streets. Insurgents were firing mortars from residential areas of the city, and Ethiopian troops responded with barrages of artillery. The attacks occurred across the flat seaside capital, and huge plumes of smoke rose into the air. The International Committee of the Red Cross said that dozens of people have been killed since Thursday and more than 220 wounded, most of them civilians with bullet, grenade and other shrapnel wounds. "The population of Mogadishu is caught up in the worst fighting in more than 15 years," the agency said.

Indian magazine "Frontline" has an article on America's "African Foray", claiming the Bush administration's actions in Africa are motivated by oil. Perish the thought !

The Bush administration's new military initiatives in Africa are widely seen as being motivated primarily by the greed for oil.

AS part of its efforts to prevent the precipitous decline of Empire, the administration of President George W. Bush announced in early February the decision to create a United States military command for Africa, "Africom". Bush said that Africom would be a fully functional unit by the end of 2008. He said that the Africa command "will enhance our efforts to bring peace and security to the people of Africa". The announcement comes after the American-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in December.

The invasion toppled the government led by the Islamic Courts Union and left a trail of chaos and bitterness in a country that was on the verge of being united and at peace. There are credible reports of U.S. troops participating in special operations inside Somalia after a gap of more than a decade. The Americans provided the Ethiopian army with satellite pictures of Somali militia positions, and American planes bombed parts of southern Somalia. Seventy civilians were killed and more than a hundred wounded. More than 1,500 American troops have been based in nearby Djibouti since 2002. They played a key role in the planning and execution of the invasion of Somalia. Last year, the Bush administration announced that it was going to expand its Camp Lemonier military base in Djibouti from its present 88 acres to more than 600 acres (one acre is 0.4 hectares). Djibouti is the smallest country in the strategic Horn of Africa.

Somalia is once again in ferment thanks to the U.S.-sponsored invasion. Scenes reminiscent of the early 1990s are once again being played out on the streets of the capital Mogadishu. Somali insurgents dragged the bodies of two occupation soldiers onto the streets and set fire to them. With its ill-advised intervention in Somalia, the Bush administration has given a fillip to the militant Islamists in the region.

The Bush administration has also been interested in bringing about "regime change" in some other African countries. Sudan and Zimbabwe are high on its list. The subterfuge of "humanitarian intervention" could be resorted to in the ongoing bid for regime change. The American preoccupation with Darfur is a case in point. Darfur, which is the size of France, is known to have vast oil and gas reserves. Late last year, Sudan warned the United Nations against a "hostile invasion of Darfur". Neighbouring Chad is already exporting huge quantities of oil to the West. The U.S. is also unhappy that the oil from southern Sudan is flowing to China, India and other emerging nations. It has been backing the secessionist movements in southern Sudan.

It is, therefore, not much of a surprise that most observers of the African scene view the new military initiative of the Bush administration in the African continent as being motivated primarily by the greed for oil. Four major U.S. oil companies have exclusive concessions in Somalia. If the U.S.-led military intervention succeeds in bringing peace to Somalia, then the American oil industry will be able to cash in on a bonanza. Geologists and oil industry sources are confident that the country has huge oil and gas reserves.

Senior American officials have expressed the hope that the Gulf of Guinea on the West African coast would be able to meet a quarter of the U.S.'s oil needs within a decade. Many of the oil-producing countries in the Gulf of Guinea are afflicted with the kind of "instability" Africom wants to address. In Nigeria, oil production has been adversely affected because of the activities of separatist guerillas in the Niger Delta. A spokesman for the guerillas criticised the creation of Africom, saying that "oil is the key concern of the U.S. in establishing the African command". Other countries in the region are also facing a politically uncertain future and their beleaguered governments could always ask the Americans to bail them out.

The Bush administration, meanwhile, continues to insist that the sole aim of Africom is to counter terrorism. There are very few takers for this stance even in the U.S. One critic, Nicol Lee of Trans-Africa, a leading African-American think tank focussing on U.S. foreign policy in Africa, has described the American move as "nothing short of a sovereignty and resource grab". Lee said that the new Bush plan "is an expansion of a policy that has brought destruction and terror to the peoples of the Middle East ...

The goal of the U.S. administration, according to reports, is to set up a ring of permanent military bases on the continent that would "lock down" Africa's oil and mineral wealth from the Gulf of Guinea in the west to the Maghreb in the north to the Red Sea in the east. One of the proposed U.S. naval bases could be in the small West African island state of Sao Tome. Sao Tome, along with Nigeria, controls huge off-shore oil reserves. Washington installed a friendly ruler in Sao Tome after a stage-managed coup in 2002.

South African periodical "Business Day" also thinks the action in Somalia could be over oil.

The emergence of the Somali insurgency behind the UIC can be attributed to the movement's role in bringing a semblance of peace to Somalia between June and December last year. With popular support, the UIC was able to remove weapons from the streets and curb inter- and intra-clan violence. In addition, the UIC's popularity is strengthened by Ethiopian meddling in Somali affairs, which brought back to power the unpopular but internationally recognised TFG.
Africa 2007

Without grassroots support and under pressure from the US and the European Union to negotiate with moderate Islamists within the UIC, the TFG's President Abdullahi Yusuf needs to start some sort of a national reconciliation process. However, Yusuf is not willing to meet hardline elements within the UIC, many of whom form the UIC leadership, and this makes it extremely difficult for the UIC to engage in any meaningful dialogue with the TFG.

This dialogue might not take place any time soon, especially in view of the latest US involvement in Somalia. This allegedly came about within the framework of the US war on terror, when the Islamist fighters fled Mogadishu after the Ethiopian invasion and entrenched themselves around the town of Ras Kamboni, on the border with Kenya. Between January 5 and 12, the US used AC-130 gunships against suspected al-Qaeda operatives thought to be embedded within the ranks of the UIC forces. Meanwhile, the US is funding the African Union mission in Somalia in support of the unpopular TFG. The US has also been secretly training Ethiopian soldiers for several years in camps near the Ethiopia-Somalia border, many of whom participated in the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia.

Although the US has stated that its involvement in Somalia is part of its fight against terrorism, some other motives can be uncovered. The US seems to be viewing Somalia as a possible launch pad for an invasion of Iran and Sudan. A stable Somalia could form the regional base for Africom (the US Strategic Military Command in Africa) and be a potential base for protecting the Strait of Hormuz -- the primary gateway for Middle Eastern oil.

It is also worth noting that Somalia's oil deposits have not been exploited and many countries would be interested to get control of them in the unpredictable oil market. The US establishing control of the Horn falls in line with its overall strategy of establishing a military presence in areas rich in natural resources and controlling access to them. ...

Ex England cricketer Phil Edmonds became an oil company executive once he ditched the white flannels and they seem to be engaged in some urban warfare (the City's version of it anyway) against French company Total over who gets to exploit oil fields in southern Sudan. They are also looking at some exploration in Ethiopia - see the corporate news release here. The Sudan Tribune also has a regular round up of oil related articles.

It gives me great pleasure to report on the Company's progress towards fulfilling its objective of becoming a leading independent oil producer focused on Southern Sudan and the immediate region.

During the period under review we have made great progress at our flagship project, the 67,000 sq km Block Ba in Southern Sudan. Having implemented and interpreted an extensive seismic programme, we have identified numerous drill targets and our first drill rig is on site and due to spud in April 2007.

In the last 18 months, White Nile has worked with leading oil industry consultants and operatives and conducted an extensive seismic acquisition programme on parts of Block Ba, in order to advance the block to production. Following the interpretation of high-density 2D seismic, we have identified numerous drill targets and prioritised four where we believe the productive Muglad Basin extends into the concession area, including one large structure of over 50 sq km. The contracted drill rig has been imported from Europe and is now on-site ready for the first well to be spudded in April 2007. This occasion signifies an important milestone for White Nile and underlines the significant progress the Company is making. ...

White Nile's position with regard to the exploration and development rights over Block Ba and the rival claim by the French oil company, Total E&P Soudan S.A ('Total'), remains the same. Following assurances from the GOSS that it had the right to issue exploration and development concessions on land in Southern Sudan, the Company signed an agreement over two years ago with the state-owned petroleum company, Nile Petroleum Corp ('NilePet'), for the exploration and development of Block Ba. In that transaction, NilePet received a 50% shareholding in White Nile in return for a 60% interest in Block Ba, with the remaining 40% interest being retained by NilePet.

In recent weeks Total has mounted a public-relations attack on White Nile and has reaffirmed its suggestion that it has rights to develop Block Ba under the terms of an agreement with the government in Khartoum in 1980.

However, the autonomous GOSS has transferred all the non producing oil concessions in Southern Sudan to its state-owned petroleum company, NilePet, which has the power to negotiate development agreements, such as that which exists with White Nile. In this context, NilePet has, in addition, entered into an agreement with Ascom a European oil production company, for the exploration and development of Block 5b, which is contiguous to Block Ba in Southern Sudan.

Total has also brought into question whether White Nile has the ability to explore and subsequently develop an area with such high potential. The Company's structure lends itself to efficiency and good practice. It is able to choose from among the best in the world within their respective fields in seismic, demining, security, drilling and pipeline and refinery development, while taking into account the local environment and your board has no doubt over White Nile's ability to develop Block Ba.

Jerome a Paris notes that Ethiopia is now part of the new decentralised gulag - responsible for holding hornets (via Past Peak)..

CIA and FBI agents hunting for al-Qaeda militants in the Horn of Africa have been interrogating terrorism suspects from 19 countries held at secret prisons in Ethiopia, which is notorious for torture and abuse, according to an investigation by the Associated Press.

Human rights groups, lawyers and several Western diplomats assert hundreds of prisoners, who include women and children, have been transferred secretly and illegally in recent months from Kenya and Somalia to Ethiopia, where they are kept without charge or access to lawyers and families.

The detainees include at least one United States citizen and some are from Canada, Sweden and France, according to a list compiled by a Kenyan Muslim rights group and flight manifests obtained by AP...

[S]ome US allies have expressed consternation at the transfers to the prisons. One Western diplomat in Nairobi, who agreed to speak to AP only if not quoted to avoid angering US officials, said he sees the US as playing a guiding role in the operation.

John Sifton, a Human Rights Watch expert on counterterrorism, went further. He said in an email that the United States has acted as "ringleader" in what he labelled a "decentralised, outsourced Guantánamo."

Energy Bulletin has an article by a Professor from Macquarie University noting that Australia is already on the downside of peak oil in terms of local production.

Australia has already peaked as an oil producer, MGSM Professor John Mathews said today. But the continued emphasis on fossil fuels – attempts at discovery and further infrastructure investment – mean that Australian companies are missing out on important business opportunities in renewable energies and biofuels.

Professor Mathews was speaking at the inaugural session of the Macquarie Forum, a series of public lectures to be given by Macquarie University academics from the Management and Law schools over the next 20 weeks, in Sydney’s CBD. The series is sponsored by BRW magazine.

Professor Mathews drew attention to the disastrous state of Australia’s balance of payments, with oil imports now costing $10 billion per year and accounting for no less than 60 percent of Australia’s BoP deficit.

Chart 1. Australia: Petroleum trade deficit, 1982 to Sep 2006 (12 month running totals)



The plunging deficit is driven not just by oil imports, but by dwindling domestic production, which has been falling now for seven years.



Seen in a longer time frame, Professor Mathews stated that the rise in imports and the falling exports of oil is a direct result of the ‘peaking’ of Australia’s oil supplies – an event that happened definitively in the year 2000.

Chart 3. Australian oil supplies peaked in the year 2000




Professor Mathews drew the implication from this that Australia’s oil producers, led by BHP-Billiton, Woodside, and Santos, together with foreign-owned Exxon and Chevron, are not going to solve Australia’s fossil fuel dependency crisis, and that the deficit will continue to grow until alternative fuels and sources of energy are allowed to come on stream.

Professor Mathews pointed to the view widely held in other countries that renewable sources of energy promise to be the biggest industry of the 21st century, eclipsing oil and fossil fuel-based systems that had their day in the 20th century. He pointed to numerous opportunities for Australian business, in bioethanol, in biodiesel and in second generation cellulosic ethanol and biomass, which are not being developed fast enough through lack of federal government leadership.

Professor Mathews said that Australians are being turned into ‘fossil fools’ by the lack of any consistent national policy in the area of renewables.

Khebab has a post on Mobjectivist's peak oil "shock model" at TOD and GraphOilogy, along with another one in Stuart Staniford's series on the depletion of Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field. For those who can't get enough modelling science, WHT has a bunch of related posts - The Cubic Growth Discovery Model, Cubic Discovery Model follow-up, Central Limit Theorem and The Oil Shock Model, The real Logistic model derivation, How to generate convenience and Compartmental Models.

WebHubbleTelescope, a long time TOD poster, has been one of the most active in the blogosphere in the area of oil production modeling. He has advocated a more physically based approach instead of a heuristic curve fitting approach such as the Hubbert Linearization. He proposed an original method, the so called Shock Model, that has a clear physical interpretation and that is making use of both the production profile and the discovery data. I think that a review of the Shock Model is long overdue.

I also propose three modifications or extensions:

1. Originally, the instantaneous extraction rate function E(t) has to be provided by the user. I propose a method to estimate E(t) directly from the observed production profile.
2. Reserve growth is modeled as a fourth convolution function based on an empirical parabolic cumulative growth functions (this will be detailed in part II).
3. A new way to project future extraction rate (in part II).

In summary, the shock model is a simple and intuitive model that is making use of both the production profile and the discovery curve. In this essay, the method is applied on the world conventional crude oil production (crude oil + condensate) and the ASPO backdated discovery data. Interestingly, the derived Reserve to Production ratio (R/P) seems to match the values obtained when using the proven reserve numbers (BP) once corrected for Middle-East spurious reserve revisions (in 1985, 1988 and 1990). In addition, R/P values are presently at a record low levels and below what have been observed during the previous oil shocks. ...

I've you'd like to see a good PowerPoint presentation (if thats not a contradiction in terms) on why electric cars are the most energy efficient form of personal tranportation (I'm talking cars here, not public transport), then check this one from Tesla Motors out - and never try and talk positively about biofuels compared to solar powered electric again...

"Smart Grid News" hasn't adopted Al Gore's new electranet moniker yet but their periodic newletters contain all sorts of interesting links if you're interested in the energy distribution system of the future. From their latest research newsletter:

Utilities to increase construction of U.S. transmission system. According to a report by A.G. Edwards & Sons, the need to upgrade aging infrastructure and move power across various regions will spur grid investment at levels not seen in decades. By allowing higher returns on equity and rapid spending recovery, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has also encouraged investment. The industry has planned to invest over $30B in the nation’s transmission system from 2006-2009.

QuickTake: But will they spend this money on the old standbys from the last century? If so, they will be locking themselves away from Smart Grid benefits for the next 20 years. If they spend that money on intelligent equipment instead, they can eventually link that equipment together into a fully modernized network.

UTC to launch major study on grid communication systems. Arguing that smarter grids can’t succeed without major changes to communications technology systems, Utilities Telecom Council (UTC) is backing a sweeping study examining the technology options, automation possibilities, and challenges. The report will estimate what an information system will cost and how it can be cost justified. To be released at UTC's annual conference on May 6-9, 2007, the report will examine trends in distribution automation, technology options, market and public policy drivers for investors.

QuickTake: Smart Grid progress has been held back for years by the lack of data for making a rate case or business case. If this study can help to close that gap, it will be a valuable tool for utilities and vendors alike.

Smart Meter pilot could provide important answers. Select utility customers in the District of Columbia will soon be trying out the next generation of metering technology. More than 2,200 customers will be randomly selected to take part in a smart meter pilot program run by eMeter Strategic Consulting. Program participants will be using smart meters, provided by Sensus, and smart thermostats in an effort to help them reduce their usage during peak demand times. In addition, the consumers will be provided with detailed billing to help them determine when to use their electricity more efficiently.

QuickTake: This will be the first program to test advanced metering using three different residential pricing options: critical peak pricing, critical peak rebate, and hourly pricing. Utilities in other jurisdictions may find the program’s results noteworthy to learn how customers respond to different types of time-based rates.

Study: Plug-In hybrids’ dependent on Smart Grid? As the nation moves towards a less oil-dependant economy and away from complete dependence on the combustion engine, plug-in hybrid vehicles are getting a closer look. But the success of a large scale usage of these vehicles may depend on how it interacts with the Smart Grid. The amount of energy saved and the amount of overall emissions reduced depends on when drivers charge their cars. Successfully managing a plug-in charging program will be based on the ability for consumers to charge their cars at lower demand times. Smart meters, demand response, and improved communications systems will all play a vital role.

QuickTake: The study represents yet again the far reaching benefits of transitioning the nation to a smart grid. Preventing climate change and reducing dependence on foreign oil can not succeed without this type of technological advance.

Texas can do it all with energy efficiency and renewables. A new study by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) shows how Texas can meet projected increases in demand over the next 15 years simply with energy efficiency and on-site renewables. The study lists nine policies that can moderate electricity demand, including energy efficiency and on-site energy resources such as solar and biomass. Texas is already finding energy efficiency resources at less than four cents per kilowatt hour, compared to five to ten cents from new power plants.

QuickTake: Energy efficiency is quickly evolving from something utilities and customers do out of obligation to a rapidly growing sector that they install because it makes financial sense.

European Union plans smart grid research. The European Commission (EC) has created a strategic research agenda (SRA) for the grid of the future. The SRA looks to solutions such as an Internet-like network, distributed generation (DG), load flow analysis and geographic information systems. Also covered are the various investment choices and uncertainties.

QuickTake: The SRA calls for a systems engineering approach – the same concept espoused by the Modern Grid Initiative, which is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and conducted by the National Energy Technology Laboratory. One big difference – the Modern Grid Initiative gets a few million dollars in funding each year, while the EU is spending about 50 times as much..

Don’t harden, “smarten” the grid instead. This report claims hardening the grid against terrorist threats should take a back seat to improving the intelligence of our energy infrastructure. Writing in Distributed Energy, Sandia National Labs researchers John Boyes and Dave Menicucci argue that placing energy generators and storage near load centers improves reliability while also addressing security issues. In addition, they argue we must do more to make energy storage a critical component of America's future.

QuickTake: A very readable chronology of the U.S. electric grid’s development and an appeal for R&D into DG and storage technology.

Merge operational and information systems – it makes dollars and sense. Ron Wallace of MRO Software argues that information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) systems are slowly merging. The article looks at best practices to help utilities overcome a fragmented approach to managing assets and services. In the past, operating units bought mismatched systems for such things as advanced metering and substation automation. But utilities can't afford the liability and maintenance expense of non-integrated, non-standard systems scattered across the organization. That’s why utility leadership is forcing OT to work within an IT framework.

QuickTake: To take full advantage of automation, operational applications must talk to the back office applications. Likewise, to be cost-efficient, all systems must be based around common standards. The rest of the business world realized this about 20 years ago. It is now becoming obvious to utilities as well. As it did in other industries before, this realization will drive millions (if not billions) in equipment, consulting and programming purchases to knit everything together.

Broadband Over Powerline touted as Smart Grid benefit. A recent PC World article touts broadband over powerline (BPL) service as another advantage of a Smart Grid. The article claims BPL will grow exponentially over the next five years. Analysts say BPL only became realistic thanks to several recent technical advances. And it has some inherent advantages to traditional ISPs; unlike fiber optic service, for instance, no new wiring has to be installed to hook a home up.

QuickTake: The word about the Smart Grid and its benefits is spreading beyond the utility industry to consumers. Let's hope the word gets out to regulators as well. The regulatory environment may ultimately determine whether utilities install BPL due to limitations on return on investment.

Also at Smart Grid News, an article on "Five Essential Pieces: The Fundamentals of a Smart Grid".

There is a growing realization that electricity will be a driving force of the U.S. economy in the 21st century. And that smart distribution technologies will be necessary to sustain that electric service. Leading utility executives are concluding that, over time, the practical and cost-effective deployment of Smart Grid strategies will separate long-term winners and losers. Simply stated, they are starting to see the Smart Grid as smart money. This change comes from a growing grasp of the business case. And from an evolving understanding of the five pieces that make up the essence of a Smart Grid.

Distribution utilities are under pressure to meet new electric energy needs. Historically, however, investment in smart distribution systems has been low as utilities struggled with tightened budgets. By some estimates, less than 75% of North America's substations have distribution information and communications systems. The penetration at the system feeder level is estimated at only 15-20% (Utilipoint, 2006). Since nearly 90% of all outages originate in the distribution network, it’s no surprise that the industry is now making a case that investment in intelligent distribution technology should be at or near the top of their priority list.

A Smart Grid implementation scenario based in San Diego showed that an initial $490M investment would generate $1.4B in system benefits and nearly $1.4 B in societal benefits over 20 years. A Smart Grid also serves an important role in facilitating energy efficiency, distributed generation, and renewable energy to improve environmental outcomes.

Electricity Delivery of the Future

Now that the business case is starting to come clear, utility professionals are asking "how do we get there from here?" The key is an integrated platform that allows a utility to expand tomorrow, while leveraging installed infrastructure today. At Advanced Control Systems, we believe such a platform has five essential pieces.

1. Advanced Metering Infrastructure

AMI systems that support two-way communications with customers while allowing secure and reliable system-wide communication for distribution automation are the enabling foundation for the Smart Grid.

2. Distribution and Outage Management

Distribution and outage management systems (DMS/OMS) provide real-time response to adverse or unstable conditions. They save money and improve customer service. Through the consolidation of both real-time OMS and DMS functionality, telemetry, and integrated security, smart distribution systems will be poised to become truly self-healing.

3. Distribution and Substation Automation

A Smart Grid requires control center supervision, area-wide solutions and visualization with centralized modeling. Implementations should leverage installed infrastructure and use a model-based, scalable approach. This practical, cost-effective method ensures that current technology eventually gives way to reactive, software-driven intelligence.

4. Simulation and Optimization

Smart Grid operations will make effective use of simulators to improve operational performance and prepare for emergencies. Distributed resources will optimize the network for increased reliability, security, and fuel diversification. Modeling will be important in planning for distributed resources and transitioning control from a centralized to decentralized operation.

5. Enterprise Business Intelligence

Overlaying the first four pieces is the enterprise business intelligence derived from system data and analytics. This important piece provides high-level presentation and decision support through real-time dashboards and historical analysis. Increasingly sophisticated modeling will eventually create knowledge from data. But that evolution requires that all operations build on a common information blueprint and industry standard object models (for example, common information model, WG-14, open applications group).

Intelligent distribution systems are an inevitable reality for utilities as they replace aging infrastructure, deal with capacity constraints, and strive to meet the demands of increasingly environmentally conscious and sophisticated customers. Although capital flow into the energy sector is improving, it is time for distribution companies to strike an optimal balance between cost, quality and service in pursuit of a Smart Grid – a Smart Grid that should be built on top of five essential pieces.

Wonkette has an article pointing out that Dick Cheney is actually right when he says that there was a financial connection between Saddam and Al Qaeda.

Bin Laden & Saddam Really Were Connected ... At Bush's Bank.

Never mind, it was a long time ago!

Let the America-hating Arabs at the Washington Post say whatever they want, we stand by Dick Cheney and his continued claims that Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden had deep financial connections.

For instance, they were both clients of the CIA-front offshore bank run by a Pakistani terror lord and used by the Reagan-Bush administrations to fund Saddam’s war against Iran and Osama’s war against the Soviets. The Iranian ayatollahs were also clients — BCCI funneled the Reagan-Bush Iran-Contra money to Tehran. Bush Family Favorite and BCCI director James R. Bath (who bought Houston’s Gulf Airport with Salem bin Laden) even laundered money through BCCI to bail out Bush Junior’s failed oil company!

Henry Kissinger was on BCCI’s board of directors, naturally. Never Forget!

For a change of pace, here's some humour courtesy of the Big Cahuna.

Readers asked to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition.

1. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period of time

2. Ignoranus : A person who's both stupid and an arsehole.

3. Intaxication : Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.

4. Reintarnation : Coming back to life as a hillbilly.

5. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately,
shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.

6. Foreploy : Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.

7. Giraffiti : Vandalism spray-painted very, very high

8. Sarchasm: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it.

9. Inoculatte : To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.

10. Hipatitis : Terminal coolness.

11. Osteopornosis : A degenerate disease. (This one got extra credit.)

12. Karmageddon : It's like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it's like, a serious bummer.

13. Decafalon (n.): The gruelling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you

14. Glibido : All talk and no action.

15. Dopeler effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.

16. Arachnoleptic fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you've accidentally walked through a spider web.

17. Beelzebug (n.): Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.

18. Caterpallor (n.): The colour you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you're eating.

I'll close with some tinfoil from Cryptogon - this time on the chemtrail phenomenon which I find interesting, probably because I lack any sort of background knowledge that would enable me to make some sort of educated judgement about the difference between normal aircraft contrails and conspiracy theories about mysterious chemtrails. I must admit I was a bit startled the first time I ever saw contrails (in Germany in 1992) having never seen any in Western Australia. However, the difference between European atmospheric conditions in January and the dry, warm atmosphere of WA is pretty vast. I have noticed the occasional contrail over Sydney in recent years though, and I don't think I saw any here in the late 1990's...

The total lack of chemtrails in the Far North of New Zealand is one of the weirdest things about adjusting to life here. After seeing such extreme chemtrail activity over the Southern California area since the late 1990s onward, I became almost used to their hideous and ominous presence. I haven’t seen a single chemtrail since being in New Zealand, although, lots of other people have seen them.

It’s big news when we see any aircraft at all up here. There’s virtually no air traffic over us here. There’s a small air strip about 25km from us. Air New Zealand runs a turboprop air taxi service from there; it goes to and from Auckland a couple of times per day, but we never see or hear that thing. In over a year of living here, I can list all of the air traffic I’ve seen here:

One sighting: New Zealand Air Force P3 Orion.
One sighting: Cop plane looking for pot growers.
One sighting: Helicopter - air ambulance.
Two Three sightings: Helicopter - flown by a guy who lives out on the east coast. (He just flew over!)
One sighting: Something weird in the Eastern sky at night - But never mind about that. This isn’t the Jeff Rense show.

That’s it for aircraft.

When I was back in Southern California, I’d see the aerosol crap billowing out of the aircraft, and think to myself, “Just try to forget about it. You can’t do anything about it. Just pretend you’re not seeing that.” On two occasions, on the day following the activity, I came down with upper respiratory problems that lasted for weeks. The first time, I thought it was a coincidence. The second time, I felt like a lab rat. Weirdly, I don’t recall getting sick like that following repeated exposures. But the times I did get sick—following the spraying—were unlike anything I’ve experienced before (or since).

When I’d try to explain this to people , I would only do it outside, in the theater of the real, if you know what I mean.

I’d wait for a VERY heavy checker-board day, as opposed to horizon-to-horizon-parallel-lines or X-marks-the-spot days. Subconsciously, I’ve found, people have noticed these things, and have just suppressed how bizarre the phenomenon is by trying to believe the condensation nonsense.

Anyway, the silly condensation explanation is easily dashed on most heavy checker-board days.

First, show the person what a normal condensation trail looks like. You should be able to easily identify those during chemtrail spraying. Ideally, you will catch the checker board pattern mid way through its construction.

Have the person watch the chemtrails being sprayed closely, and note the point at which the billowing spray is turned on and off.

That’s when you say:

“If it’s normal condensation, how does the aircraft manage to turn it on and off to form the grid pattern?”

That can be a hard lesson for people.

I’ve heard everything from shocked silence to, “What the f*ck is that, man?!”

Oh course, I don’t know, but I don’t think it’s just one thing.

It might be part of the HAARP program, but if it is, lots of governments are in on it. There is no way a U.S. high energy weapon program is being deployed in the skies above friendly European countries without those governments being in on it.

There’s the weather modification theory as well. Yep. Maybe that’s part of it.

There’s the biowar/innoculation argument. Yep. That’s possible too.

There are endless chemtrail biogoo chemtrail stories.

Again, I don’t know. ...