The Hobbit Theory of Grid Modernization  

Smart Grid News is a great resource, but is generally pretty dry reading. However even electrical engineers can be playful at times - proved by this offbeat look at modernising the electrical grid - "The Hobbit Theory of Grid Modernization".

Theorem #1: In the midst of greatly troubled times, Pippin says, “We will always have the shire.” To which Merry responds, “The fires of Isengard will spread, and the forests of Tuckborough and Buckland will burn. And all that was once great and good in this world will be gone. There won't be a Shire, Pippin.”

Will we always have our customers? The trends show rapid growth in customers finding their own solutions for energy independence, show most innovations are taking place on the consumer side of the meter, and show electric prices will increase 50% over the next decade.

The very nature of the US culture regarding technology use is changing. It appears the industry is not matching this consumer interest in technology. Are we the rotary-dial phone in an iPhone world?

Theorem #2: "Do we really have to go through [Mirkwod]?" groaned the hobbit. "Yes, you do!" said the wizard, "if you want to get to the other side. You must either go through or give up your quest. There are no safe paths in this part of the world."

The traditional approach to a build-out of new transmission and distribution does seem to support that there are no “safe paths in this part” of the industry. Most of these lines have large impacts, yet they are needed. However, this should not diminish our search for alternative solutions that present less impact, cost, and / or future risk in our Integrated Resource Planning (IRP).

The natural human condition is to delay uncomfortable decisions. But, decisions about long-term strategy do not go away; they must be addressed. Plus, delays in decisions usually add risks to the process, not diminish them. So, moving the industry along a path that addresses the robust trends in the industry by adding more technology solutions and shared/consumer-involved solutions is a decision that should be embraced now.

Theorem #3: "If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold [as the hobbits do], it would be a merrier world."

The industry’s overriding focus on rates may lead us to missing the point with customers. There are places in the US where customers pay more for more reliability, more green power, and more services. The next generation of electric customers have completely different goals for electric service than we who grew up during the massive build-out of the industry; but that is another story.

Problem with the Hobbit Theory?

Last month we discussed “cathedral thinking” from the aspect of change over time. We need to be on the correct side of cathedral thinking. Large cathedrals could take 75 years to complete, but last more than 1,000 years. Cathedral thinking means that we have to establish a proper vision, then stay the difficult course to achieving the vision over a long period of time. We should not apply “shire thinking” that once the cathedral is built, we do not have to do anything for 1,000 years. In the US, we aggressively built the electric delivery infrastructure for 40 years, then decided we will always have transmission capacity (the shire) and essentially stopped (including research).

The industry is pointing in a direction it has for forty years, which is actually a good example of cathedral thinking. But, the consumer has changed direction, so the industry and consumer are no longer (aligned) on the same path. Avoiding the discussion and decision, about hard issues such as alternatives to building large generation and transmission and empowering the consumer only widens the gap between the industry and consumers.

Assuming the consumer will pay 50% higher rates in 7 – 10 years on the current (traditional) path is a bad assumption not born out by the robust industry trends. During the period rates will climb 50%, the cost of distributed energy independence will continue to come down. You can plot the intersection. At that point, 7 to 10 years from now, it will be cheaper in many parts of the country to self-generate than to buy the service from the electric company. This is why we see such emphasis by consumer electronics and services industries on the consumer side of the meter; all providing alternatives to buying from the electric company. Can this lead to some utilities becoming irrelevant?

The Bottom Line

Elrond raised his eyes and looked at him [Frodo]; "This is the hour of the Shire-folk, when they arise from their quiet fields, to shake the towers and counsels of the Great. Who of all the Wise could have foreseen it?"

Could this be true of our industry? As we continue to raise the debate, will some part of the industry or segment of the consumer-base surprise us and take on the mantle of leading the industry to a modern grid that truly empowers the 21st century economy?

Green Car Congress has a post on the Flybrid Flywheel Hybrid System - an energy storage alternative to batteries.

Flybrid Systems has demonstrated that its high-speed spinning flywheel system can survive a crash test of the severity used for Formula One frontal impact testing.

The Flybrid kinetic energy recovery system (KERS) incorporates Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) technology sourced from the partnership of Torotrak Plc and Xtrac. Xtrac is using Torotrak’s full-toroidal traction drive technology for use in kinetic energy recovery systems within the motorsport industry. The FIA have defined the amount of energy recovery for the 2009 season as 400kJ per lap giving the driver an extra 80hp over a period of 6.67 seconds.

The mechanical KERS system uses flywheel technology developed by Flybrid Systems to recover and store a moving vehicle’s kinetic energy which is otherwise wasted when the vehicle is decelerated. The combination of gearbox-variator and flywheel form part of the driveline assembly. Energy is received from the driveline through the Torotrak CVT as the vehicle decelerates, and is subsequently released back into the driveline, again through the CVT, as the vehicle accelerates.

Compared to the alternative of electrical-battery systems, the mechanical KERS system provides a more compact, efficient, lighter and environmentally-friendly solution.

Although flywheel systems are not new, installations tended to be heavy and the gyroscopic forces of the flywheel were significant. To overcome these issues,Flybrid uses a smaller and lighter flywheel that rotates at more than 60,000 rpm. This advance in speed has been made possible by several key inventions for which the company is seeking patent protection.

ComputerWorld reports the OLPC is experimenting with a cow-powered device to generate electricity for its low-cost XO laptop.

The One Laptop Per Child Project (OLPC) is toying with a novel source of power for its low-cost XO laptops: cows.

"We plan to drive a dynamo (taken from an old Fiat) through a system of belts and pulleys using cows/cattle," wrote OLPC's Arjun Sarwal, in an e-mail dated October 21 and posted to one of the group's discussion lists. Sarwal and others are now finalizing the design of the cow-powered generator.

The goal is to develop a low-cost energy source that can be used in Indian villages. Working in a village close to Mumbai, Sarwal said the group considered using solar energy but sunlight near Mumbai was not "consistently strong." There was not enough wind or running water nearby to use these as sources of power, and the cost of running a gas-powered motor was too high. "But the village had an abundance of cattle that were being used in the fields. So we decided to design something around that," Sarwal wrote in a subsequent e-mail.

Tyler Hamilton at Clean Break has a look at a nappy to diesel facility in Canada.

My Clean Break column in The Toronto Star this week is about plans to build a facility in Quebec that will process used diapers into oil, gas and char using a pyrolysis process. Engineering giant AMEC has been contracted to build the plant, which will take in used diapers (infant and adult) from hospitals and seniors homes. It makes sense. Pyrolysis is a great technology, but the key to making it work -- and by work I mean make a business out of it -- is to assure you have a steady supply of predictable feedstock that's not too expensive to collect and transport. When I say predictable I mean that the feedstock is the same. That is, no surprises like what you get with the mish-mash of stuff that comes from municipal solid waste. If you know the materials you're dealing with, it's easier to control the pyrolysis process and maximize its efficiency. Diapers are ideal for this reason -- all you've got is plastic, fibre, poop, and pee -- and in the case of collection and transportation, there's already a system in existence that you can piggyback. In fact, the company accepting the diapers will make money, not spend it, by charging a tipping fee to the company that does the diaper pickup and disposal for institutions. It's a model that could be replicated throughout industry with a wide range of materials -- if we thought about it.

The output is synthetic gas, a diesel-like oil and char. The gas can be used for power and heat during the pyrolysis process, the char can be used in a wide range of application (or simply mixed in depleted soils, thereby sequestering the high content of carbon inside), and the oil can be used for heating or electricity production, the latter potentially sold into the grid -- yet another stream of revenue. AMEC won't name the company that's doing this diaper-to-diesel project, but I hope it proves the model successful so that others can adopt it as well.

After Gutenberg has a post on Combined Heat and Power from Rice Husks.

Biopact reports on growing interest in the conversion of agricultural waste from rice farming into useful energy. After rice is harvested from the paddy and processed, there is a large amount of biomass waste. Ajinomoto will purchase rice hulls from farmers in the surrounding area, where large quantities of the hulls go unused. This will mark the first time, at an overseas production site, that the company has made use of biomass as a fuel.

According to the IEA’s Bioenergy Task 33 on thermal biomass gasification, the leftover rice husks have a relatively high energy content (18 GJ/ton - higher heating value). Roughly 280kg of hulls remain after the rice is processed, thus, each ton of processed rice could represent around 120 kWh of energy from waste.

By the end of 2008, Japan’s Ajinomoto Co., a global food processor, will switch from oil to rice hulls for most of the fuel consumed at one of its key seasonings plants in northern Thailand. The biomass resource is abundantly present in the region, but has no market value. Farmers and rice processors often simply burn the hulls as waste, which releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Ajinomoto now wants to utilize the biomass in an efficient combustion system to power a large food plant and so cut back its own emissions.

Construction of such a system requires significant capital investment since the feedstock is subjected to high temperatures in the absence of oxygen levels, and a pressurized environment must be maintained. Ajinomoto is applying for the project to be registered as a CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) by the UN. In addition to UN certification, Ajinomoto is preparing to apply to the governments of Japan and Thailand to receive credit for emissions reduction.

Proponents of such biomass gasification argue that there is a net reduction in greenhouse gases due to the amount of fossil fuel not being mined, transported and burned to generate electricity for operation of the food plant in Thailand. Since core operation of the food plant is fermentation of sugars and starches extracted from sugar cane and cassava to produce seasonings, Ajinomoto wants to build a combined heat and power system similar to a project underway in Brazil. In addition to the biomass-fueled, steam-generated electric power plant, heat from the conversion will be utilized in the fermentation process.

Technology Review has an article on a Carbon-Free, Stackable Rental Car. Sounds like some of the ideas raised by Jamais in "The Problem Of Cars".

An MIT group hopes that its foldable electric vehicles will cut pollution, ease congestion, and thrive alongside a city's transportation system.

The Smart Cities group at the MIT Media Lab is working on two low-cost electric vehicles that it hopes will revolutionize mass transit and help alleviate pollution. Next week, the group will unveil a prototype of its foldable electric scooter at the EICMA Motorcycle Show, in Milan. A prototype for the team's foldable electric car, called the City Car, is slated to follow next year.

The MIT group sees the vehicles as the linchpin in a strategy that aims to mitigate pollution with electric power, expand limited public space by folding and stacking vehicles like shopping carts, and alleviate congestion by letting people rent and return the vehicles to racks located near transportation hubs, such as train stations, airports, and bus depots.

"We're looking at urban personal mobility in a much more sustainable way than the private automobile provides," says William Mitchell, director of the Smart Cities research group.

The group's strategy will efficiently solve the "last mile" problem without losing the virtues of the private automobile, Mitchell says. The last mile is that inconvenient distance between any major transit stop and a person's final destination. While a traditional automobile provides mobility on demand and gets you to your destination, its negative externalities--congestion and pollution--seem intractable.

At the heart of these vehicles is an omnidirectional robot wheel that the team has developed. The wheel encases an electric-drive motor, as well as suspension, steering, and braking systems. With no engine or mechanical parts between the wheels and the driver's controls, the system offers great flexibility in design. The driver can, in fact, fold the car up (see below image). Six to eight folded and stacked City Cars can fit into one conventional parking space. General Motors sponsored the development of the car.

Links:

* Clean Break - EEStor should talk. Doubts rising about their ultracapacitor technology.
* Smart Grid News - First Ever WiFi Linked Smart Metering Installation
* Smart Grid News - A Smarter Grid for India
* Physorg - New technology improves the reliability of wind turbines
* Cleantech.com - Chevron, NREL team up on algae biofuel
* TreeHugger - Garbage-Burning Oven Helps Clean Up and Power Kenyan Slum
* WorldChanging - Fish For Fuel
* The Oil Drum - ANZ News - Friday 2 November 2007
* Phil Hart - A Tale of Two Economists
* Bruce Sterling - The Oil of the 21st Century Is, Uh, Oil. "Just give it up, information wants to be worthless"
* Bruce Schneier - The war on different
* Tom Dispatch - Mike Davis, Who Really Set the California Fires?. "The shape of the shape-shifting arsonist has changed over the years: more or less in historical order, according to Davis, they have been Indians, sheepherders, tramps, Wobblies, Okies, 'Axis saboteurs', and, in our own time, environmentalists, gays and terrorists. The search for arsonists is, of course, on again..."
* PES - Who killed JFK Jr ?