Peak Oil And The Australian Army  

The Oil Drum has a post from Major Cameron Leckie of the ADF on the impact of peak oil on the Australian Army.

Oil is vital to virtually everything modern industrial societies do, yet it is mostly taken for granted. It provides 90 per cent of our transport fuel, 95 per cent of the goods in shops use oil and 95 per cent of our food products require oil use.1 Oil is a fi nite resource—one day we will run out. While this will no doubt be a long time off, what is becoming clear is that global oil production will peak and then commence a terminal decline almost certainly within decades and quite possibly within the next few years.2 While some official organisations, such as the US Government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA)3, make optimistic predictions and see oil production continuing to increase in the short to medium term, there is increasing concern among elements of the oil industry that the peaking in production is imminent or has already passed.

The implications of the peaking in global oil production are enormous. Predictions vary from a global economic recession to the collapse of modern industrial societies. Despite this, there is relatively little emphasis placed on preparing for the onset of Peak Oil by governments, the media, businesses or individuals, with some notable exceptions.4 In the event of an early peak, this will be to society’s great detriment and is something that should be of grave concern to all. The magnitude of this problem for defence forces is summarised by the following excerpt from a Boston Globe report on the US Department of Defence:

A new study ordered by the Pentagon warns that the rising cost and dwindling supply of oil—the lifeblood of fighter jets, warships, and tanks—will make the US military’s ability to respond to hot spots around the world ‘unsustainable in the long term’.5

If rising costs and dwindling supplies of oil have the potential to do this to the US military, it is likely that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) will face similar problems. The ADF will not be immune to the impacts of Peak Oil. All three Services are heavily dependent upon oil as demonstrated in Financial Year 2005–06, where the Services submitted bids for liquid fuels totalling $340 million (including unfunded, non-ADF requirements). All three Services are heavily dependent upon oil. Stuart McCarthy from the Australian Association of the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) believes that increasing consumption and rising prices triggered by Peak Oil could see ADF fuel costs increase to 4 or 5 per cent of total Defence expenditure in the foreseeable future.6 The impact of Peak Oil on all three Services is likely to be severe and will challenge the ADF’s ability to conduct joint operations. For example, in a liquid fuel constrained environment, the ability to conduct strategic lift and provide close air support could be severely hampered.

Although Peak Oil presents significant implications for the wider ADF and Australia’s military strategy, this paper will focus on the implications of Peak Oil for the Australian Army from a Raise, Train and Sustain perspective. If the Army is unprepared for the challenges that Peak Oil presents, it risks becoming ‘functionally dislocated’, with inappropriate doctrine, equipment and an inability to train or possibly perform the tasks that the Government requires of it. This is the motivation for this paper—to ensure that the Army does not become ‘functionally dislocated’ and that it can continue to serve the Australian people in the same manner as it has throughout its history. The aim is to provide a starting point from which discussions and informed decisions can be made in planning and preparing for an uncertain future. ...