South Africa and The Limits to Growth  

My "Limits To Scenario Planning" post was originally prompted by some chatter amongst the TOD editors about the Limits To Growth book.

Ugo Bardi's article on "Peak oil and The Limits to Growth: two parallel stories" is now up at TOD Europe, comparing Hubbert style oil depletion modelling and the systems dynamics style modelling used by the LTG authors.

TOD Europe also had a recent post on "Understanding the current energy crisis in South Africa" which looked at the impact electricity shortages are having on the country and putting this into the context of the limits to growth.

The era of very cheap electricity in South Africa is now over. Consumers will face price hikes of between 14 and 20% per annum for at least the next few years. This will encourage necessary conservation and efficiency measures, but will be especially hard on poorer consumers. Thus the government will come under pressure to increase its expenditure on social support programmes and grants. What has happened, has happened, and cannot be changed. We are here, now, in the present situation and faced with the choices of which route to follow going forward. The question we need to ask is, “Will our solutions make us more or less dependent on fossil fuels? Will they take us closer to sustainability or further from it? Are we seeking long-term solutions or short-term quick fixes? What price will we pay in the future if we make the wrong choices now?”

Idleworm has a post looking at the impact these shortages are having on the South African mining industry, and the implications for the rest of us.

Amazing find on Survival Acres - a letter from a citizen in South Africa, describing the energy crisis, and the continuing breakdown in the nation's physical infrastructure. From the comments section on the page, South Africa's neighbours won't be in a position to send any juice south, as they're reliant on that country's energy exports.

Approximately 80% of the world's Platinum, Palladium and Rhodium is mined in South Africa, not to mention gold.

Platinum is used in catalytic converters, catalysts in fuel cells, chemotherapy, thermometers, electrodes in electrolysis and electrochemical measurements, jewelry, silicone elastomers, glow plugs, crucibles for high temperature melting of glass, archival printmaking and watchmaking.

Palladium is used in dentistry, watch making, blood sugar test strips, aircraft spark plugs, surgical instruments, multilayer ceramic capacitors, electrodes in multi-layer ceramic capacitors, platings in consumer electronics, plating of electronic components, soldering materials, hydrogen purification, carbon monoxide detectors, hydrogenation and dehydrogenation reactions, petroleum cracking, catalytic converters, homogeneous catalysis, hydrogen storage, jewelry, photography and manuscript illumination.

Rhodium is used in optical instruments, jewelry, catalytic converters, catalytic carbonylation of methanol, silicone rubbers, chiral synthesis and mammography.

Whew.

Make of that what you will.