IMF accepts peak oil ?  

Posted by Big Gav in ,

The latest World Economic Outlook (pdf - p55 and 56) from the IMF has a brief section that sounds like an acceptance of peak oil being reached - at least in terms of conventional oil.

In addition to slow investment responses, there are two other factors that suggest that capacity growth will be more constrained by geology than in the past.

First, although peak production rates in major fields are attained earlier - because extraction methods have become more efficient - "decline rates" are also higher in major fields. The International Energy Agency suggests that almost two-thirds of the additional gross capacity needed over the next eight years will be required just to replace declines in output from existing fields. ...

Second, oil will increasingly come from unconventional sources, because output has declined from peak levels at conventional fields in many countries, and the size of oil fields is getting smaller on average. This does not mean that the world is about to run out of oil, but it suggests that higher oil prices are needed to induce the additional investment required to balance the market over the medium term."

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