The Future of Light Electric Vehicles in China  

After Gutenberg has an interesting post on the electric bicycle market in Asia.

Recently noted, e-bikes are selling well in China and Vietnam. Green Car Congress relays further commentary on the e-bike market in Asia. The observations are part of a UC Davis study of E2W (Electric Two-Wheelers) in China. The study concludes that ongoing rapid growth could drive further electrification of transport sector, which this blog perceives as potentially very good development, yet recognizes the UC Davis concern about the high carbon intensity of the Chinese grid. (”Pay no attention to the high carbon intensity in the Ohio Valley, ‘Merika.”)

The authors at ITS (Institute for Transportation Studies at UC Davis) —Jonathan Weinert, Joan Ogden, Dan Sperling, and Andrew Burke—concluded that more grid-able vehicles would drive:

1. Continued innovation in batteries and motors
2. A switch from lead-acid to Li-ion batteries, and
3. Development of larger E2Ws and EVs.

The ITS authors used force field analysis to assess future E2W growth in China. They concluded that “driving forces appear to outweigh the resisting forces for E2Ws.” Such a conclusion corresponds with the perception at the April 2008 Shanghai Cycle Show.

Chinese presenters at an international seminar on “Lithium-Ion Battery Technology Applied to Electric Bikes” noted new models for the 2008 season are entering the market. The newer lithium battery technology offers better performance and is safer. Lithium batteries have a 50% share in the European market and about the same is true in Japan. In the US, more and more Lithium batteries are becoming available. Lithium batteries, which can meet stringent battery safety standards, definitely should become prevalent in LEVs (Light Electric Vehicles) in China.