APPEA: exploration efforts won't be enough to replace depleting reserves  

The last comment from Belinda Robinson of the APPEA in this article is interesting - she must be a closet peaker. From the ABC - Soaring petrol prices spark oil hunt Down Under.

The price of petrol has nudged past $1.70 in some Australia cities, prompting people to question whether there are any untapped oil reserves in our own backyard. And the president of the Geosciences Council, Dr Trevor Powell, has been singled out by the oil exploration industry to identify potential sites. "The areas that appear to have the greatest promise is the southern margin from Australia - extending from roughly Kangaroo Island, round the south-western tip of Western Australia," Dr Powell said.

"The reason why that area is thought to have prospectivity is because there are a series of sedimentary basins which have very thick sediments. They are of the right geological age and there are other characteristics, such as their structure, which may be correct to contain petroleum."

The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association's chief executive, Belinda Robinson, says the best place to look is usually next to existing operations. "That's certainly where the risks and the costs are a lot lower, and that is where we traditionally go and explore," she said.

"But if we are interested in wanting to find another new oil province, then we would need to start looking in those areas that we call frontier areas, or those areas where we haven't explored before. They include places down around the Great Australian Bight in the south-west of Australia, right up north in the Arafura Sea, further in the north-west and in the far east. They're the sorts of areas that Geoscience Australia believes could hold the prospect of another oil and gas province."

The problem is, it won't be cheap to explore there. "Before you've even got the infrastructure challenges, there would also be challenges in actually getting there and exploring because the water is very deep," Ms Robinson said. "But thanks to developing technology, we are able to go into deeper and deeper water. But it is risky and it is costly."

The theory is higher oil prices encourage investment in exploration, but Ms Robinson says costs are also increasing, so exploration efforts won't be enough to replace depleting reserves.