Peak Oil Is A "Done Deal"  

Dave Cohen at ASPO USA is saying that peak oil is a done deal (being careful to say this is a medium term certainty, not a past event) and that the time has come to focus on reducing demand and exploring alternative energy sources - something I couldn't agree with more.

I now believe that the hypothesis of a near or medium-term peak in the world's oil supply is confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt. A shift in emphasis that speaks to reducing our demand for oil and examining alternatives to oil is now required. I will be taking that road in the future, leaving specific concerns about the oil supply behind.

Today's story briefly summarizes why I believe "peak oil" is a done deal. The forecast1 below reflects my own view. This analysis does not necessarily reflect the view of ASPO-USA.

Global oil (crude + condensate) production will peak at 76.5 ± 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, ± 1 year, with a probability of 80%. There is a 20% likelihood that output will peak at another level—not 76-77 million b/d—between 2009 and 2013.

This estimate intentionally says nothing about the shape of the production curve after the peak. I stand by this forecast and will not be revising it in the future. A "peak oil" forecast examines the supply-side of the oil market, but reality dictates that high prices will affect demand. My estimate can thus be viewed as a "low price" or "reference" case that ignores the effects of rising prices. ...

I am now in a position to add up the production numbers arrived at above, but first I need to establish a baseline. I will use the EIA's data (here and here) for May, 2008. The EIA's 4-month average for 2008 is 74.325 million b/d. Saudi production in May was 9.4 million b/d, up 300,000 b/d from April. I will add those barrels to the 4-month average to obtain a baseline of 74.625 million b/d.

We can now add our additions to the baseline. The non-OPEC increment is 0.5 million b/d, the Saudi increment is 1 million b/d, and the rest of OPEC increment is 0.72 million b/d. Together, these yield 2.22 million b/d. Adding this to the baseline, we get 76.845 million b/d. If you look back at both of the IEA charts, you will see that OPEC capacity additions fall off considerably in 2011, while non-OPEC additions drop after 2009. My view is that after 2011, we will never surpass production levels achieved that year.

The oil price is rising quickly. The higher prices preceding the peak are now dampening demand in the United States and elsewhere in the OECD. However, subsidized consumption growth outside the OECD (China, etc.) is still soaking up demand reductions elsewhere. I can not predict future oil prices with any certainty, and I can not predict future oil demand with any certainty, although I have discussed these subjects at length in other columns.

Obviously, I can not predict the exact shape of the world oil production curve in the next 5 years. What I can do, however, is establish a ceiling for world oil production should demand remain strong going forward. That ceiling, now and forever, is likely to occur in 2011 somewhere between 76 and 77 million b/d.

We are so close to the peak now that quibbles about the numbers cited here do not matter. My familiarity with the oil industry justifies many of the "hidden assumptions" I've made and did not have time to discuss. If you remain unconvinced that a peak of world crude oil production is not almost upon us, nothing I could say further will persuade you in any case.

As I said at the top, this is my official forecast and I will not revise it in the future. I will note for the historical record that in July of 2008 few Americans have come to grips with the implications of a permanent peak in the world's oil supply despite the strong price signal we've seen for several years now. I have done all I could over the last few years to warn everyone about what's coming. My conscience is clear even as my concern remains high.

For me, the time has come to examine measures we might take in the post-peak world.

Also posted at Energy Bulletin, where Bart commented:

Important statement from one of the most acute peak oil watchers now writing.

Because of its importance, we'll keep this story at the top of the page for a couple of days.

At EB, we have been thinking along similar lines. It may be time to shift our emphasis away from documenting the impending crisis. Instead we would spend more time examining what the post-peak world will look like, how our lives will be changing and what we should do about it.

Peak oil is now in the mainsteam - "Mission Accomplished." Time to move on to the next phase.

Maybe "Mission Accomplished" isn't the best phrase to use given the debacle that has followed Dubya's similar declaration of victory in Iraq, but I think the point that peak oil is now a mainstream idea is well made - things are far different now to when I started doing this 4 years ago...