The elephant in the middle of the freeway: peak oil  

Bruce Robinson of ASPO-Australia has an article in Crikey on (unsurprisingly) peak oil - The elephant in the middle of the freeway: peak oil.

I am concerned there is no mention of future global oil shortages (Peak Oil) in the nationwide coverage of the BrisConnections story. I am also concerned that the Queensland Government is committed to the project, as this poses a serious risk to the state if Peak Oil arrives soon and is followed by "Peak Traffic" and "Peak Airport Usage".

Premier Anna Bligh yesterday declared the State Government would "not let this project fall over" but refused to confirm whether more taxpayer dollars would be used to ensure Airport Link went ahead. Ms Bligh said "all possible contingencies" were being explored by the Government.

There is a substantial "oil shortage" aspect, not yet mentioned, in which BrisConnections (and other toll-road companies) have not been at all open and honest with shareholders, and that is the serious risk to the financial side of the project from possible future oil shortages or very high oil prices, as "Peak Oil" approaches or kicks in. The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas feels ASIC should do much more to ensure disclosure of oil vulnerability risks to future income forecasts from transport infrastructure companies.

There are a lot of forecasts that the steep increases in global oil prices of last year will return, as the underlying rate of depletion of the world's giant oil fields has not changed, and Peak Oil is looming. The International Energy Agency, in its World Energy Outlook report of November last year, suggested, from a survey of 800 giant and supergiant oilfields, that the depletion rate, even after additional work like infill drilling, is about a 6.7% pa decrease in production (and about a 9% pa production decline without additional investment). ...