James Howard Kunstler: Investing In Infrastructure For An Age Of Scarcity  

Posted by Big Gav

"The Infrastructurist" has an interview with James Howard Kunstler, in which JHK once again outlines his reversalist view of the future and scorns technophile solutions - James Howard Kunstler: Investing In Infrastructure For An Age Of Scarcity.

A few years ago, author James Howard Kunstler famously convinced petro-billionaire and Bush crony Richard Rainwater to build an off-the-grid rural compound because the fabric of American society would soon be threatened by oil shortages and skyrocketing energy prices. The Long Emergency, Kunstler’s pungent and highly influential book on the subject of peak oil, won a lot of other smart money converts as well. When a barrel of crude hit $147 last summer, he was looking more and more like a prophet. At the present $47, let’s just say the jury is still out.

But it’s hard not to have the sense that Kunstler’s ideas are worth careful consideration, even if one believes that future oil supplies might be a bit more abundant than he suggests. For instance, his 1994 book The Geography of Nowhere was a decade or more ahead of the cultural curve in describing the structural miscalculations of America’s sprawling suburbs. Now, even with OPEC cutting production, Kunstler still predicts oil supply shortages dead ahead. Will we feel the bite this year? Next? The year after? “Soon enough,” he says.

Naturally, this informs his ideas about what kinds of infrastructure investments the nation ought to be making. Recently, he discussed that subject, the tragic nature of imaginary money, and “evangenical roller rinks” with the Infrastructurist.

JR: So we’re starting a major new round of investment in our national infrastructure. Can we agree that’s a good thing?

JHK: Well, for instance, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to devote a trillion dollars to fixing up the highways. I mean the days of “happy motoring” in this country truly are behind us. We should be planning for a period when energy resources are much more scarce. Throwing that kind of money at roads is not the way to go about doing this.

How would you be doing it?

I don’t know that I would undertake a spending program like this at all. That said, I’m a pretty strong advocate of repairing the national rail system. It’s obviously not the answer to everything. But it would certainly put a lot of people to work doing something that’s meaningful for society. The infrastructure is out there, waiting to be fixed. I’m pretty adamant that we shouldn’t be going the path of high-tech, maglev, high speed rail at this moment, because we need to prove that we can do this at the Hungarian level before we try to proceed past that.

4 comments

"JHK: Well, for instance, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to devote a trillion dollars to fixing up the highways. I mean the days of “happy motoring” in this country truly are behind us."

The Tesla and Cal Car plug-in Prius conversion use 0.26 kWh per mile. The MiEV uses 0.15 kWh per mile. The Tesla roadster goes 240+ miles per charge and their upcoming sedan is promising a 300 mile range.

Solar will soon reach $1 per watt and wind continues to drop in price.

Even if we hold at an average of $0.10 per kWh we can do a lot of happy motoring when the fuel for a 100 miles will cost about $2.50.

We're happily motoring right now while a 30 mpg car and $3 gas costs us $10 per 100 miles. (And few of us get 30 mpg.)

Well - I certainly don't agree with JHK that trying to maintain road based transport is futile.

As you say, electric cars are appearing now and there is plenty of energy available at reasonable prices from renewable energy sources.

"I’m pretty adamant that we shouldn’t be going the path of high-tech, maglev, high speed rail at this moment."

We do need some low-tech rail, especially light rail for moving people in and out of crowded cities, but our really big rail need is for high speed rail for moderate length journeys.

We need to cut down on our air travel. Europe has already demonstrated that high speed rail is something that works.

And we can power trains with electricity. It might be a long time before we can fly from SF to LA on battery power.

It's time we started building. And perhaps time we stopped listening to JHK.

RE: "think it would be a catastrophic mistake to devote a trillion dollars to fixing up the highways."

It is a tragic mistake we have already committed to in the U.S.

And while a 'appearing possible' electric cars are still a diversion of dirty power.

And I have to agree that:
"we shouldn’t be going the path of high-tech, maglev, high speed rail at this moment."


Only lower, slower tech will save us from ourselves.


The shift of next day cargo shipments via light fleets has increased oil consumption in the U.S. 30-40% over the last two decades... reinvesting in electric 'slow rail' of massive cargo to the bigbox and grocer store docks via classic rail and lowering speed limits 20mph could put the U.S. off foreign oil - period.

Anyone telling you different is either lying to you or naive of where real energy is wasted.

Seriously, the U.S. would start saving over 100,000 people a year from lack of accidents and air pollution on this shift.

Not to mention the 3 trillion in oil (per year).


Want to save the massive costs of maintaining U.S. highways? Really?

Changing cars over the next decade can not do this... And what happens to the 10's of millions of the old fleet?

Slowing down major highways speeds 20mph and removing 50% of the light cargo fleet will.

Really.


GAV -
I am in awe of the debates we make on what car I should drive to work (pick your poison), when few understands the cost, damage or impact of my son ordering and a mp3 player directly from HongKong via ebay for $5 including shipping... When the fuel and manufacturing and transport 'net energy' alone was about $30.


How does this continue to be the 'invisible elephant in the room'?



Over a year ago I thought you may be another 'silly man from across the pond' when you suggested converting world shipping cargo vessels to sail and solar.
Now I now know that you are the exception to the few who have a real idea of what needs to be done.

The need to slow down to 'a pace for prosperity' will truly move the world towards a sustainable future. Pouring trillions into hopes of a 'techno leep' will continue to add to a bleak one.

I think high speed rails, solar powered energy laser rays from space and hybrid fuel cell electric cars are cool and 'doable' in a prosperous future.

But first we have to commit to a prosperous future using the proven low tech solutions we have been gifted with and choose to ignore for the next 'cooler gadget fix'.

Ignoring our successes of the past will elude us from that same future of prosperity.

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