The End Of the Oil Age is Near, Deutsche Bank Says  

Posted by Big Gav in ,

Keith Johnson at the WSJ's Environmental Capital blog has a post on a recent Deutsche Bank report predicting peak oil in 2016 - Peak Oil: The End Of the Oil Age is Near, Deutsche Bank Says. The report notes that if the cost of the war in Iraq was taken into account, prices at the pump would soar - "If the US government taxed US gasoline consumers purely to reflect the financial cost of the war in Iraq, gasoline prices should be some 54 cents per gallon higher".

Here’s an intriguing thought: Global oil supplies are indeed set to peak within a few years, and no, that is not bullish for oil. Quite the contrary—it will spell the end of the “oil age.”

That’s the take from Deutsche Bank’s new report, “The Peak Oil Market.” In a nutshell: The oil industry chronically under invests in finding new supplies, exemplified both by Big Oil’s recent love of share buybacks and under-investment by big oil-producing nations. That spells a looming supply crunch.

That will send oil to $175 a barrel by 2016—and will simultaneously put the final nail in oil’s coffin and send prices plummeting back to $70 by 2030. That’s because there’s an even more important “peak” moment on the horizon: A global peak in oil demand. That has already begun in the world’s biggest oil-consuming nation, Deutsche Bank notes:
US demand is the key. It is the last market-priced, oil inefficient, major oil consumer. We believe Obama’s environmental agenda, the bankruptcy of the US auto industry, the war in Iraq, and global oil supply challenges have dovetailed to spell the end of the oil era.

The big driver? The coming-of-age of electric and hybrid vehicles, which promise massive fuel-economy gains for short-hop commuting but which so far have not been economic.

Deutsche Bank expects the electric car to become a truly “disruptive technology” which takes off around the world, sending demand for gasoline into an “inexorable and accelerating decline.”

2 comments

Mmm - I'm not so sure this scenario makes sense. Will we have electric planes and ships? Electric trucks and heavy industrial transport? I think not. @030 is only 20 years away. Do we honestly think that such a radical industrial and technological change can take place over only 2 decades? Two decades in which the world's many hundreds of individual economies will be struggling with rising stationary and transport energy costs, with water shortages, with the impacts of global warming, with food shortages, with the rising demands of a growing population and with the political impacts of 'oil nationalism' (think Iraq but magnified several times). Yes - peak oil will come and it will be soon. Oil prices will rise. But beyond that it's all uncertain as far as I can see. The last thing I expect to see is any technologically driven wave or worldwide change in energy dependence!

Well - its the scenario I favour - whether or not it eventuates remains to be seen...

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