Oil Depletion Protocol  

The ASPO's Uppsala (oil depletion) protocol is getting a bit of attention this week, with Richard Heinberg's latest MuseLetter being discussed by Jamais at WorldChanging.

I like the comparison of the Uppsala and Kyoto protocols as drivers for developing nations to avoid basing their economic development on fossil fuels and instead work on "leapfrog" solutions to their energy needs.

Is it practical though ? Or will it only be "market forces" in the form of ever higher and more volatile energy prices that force the poorer countries to look at alternatives (or lapse into financial ruin) ? I suspect the latter, given that we seem to be witnessing the beginnings of it already. But starting discussion of a managed alternative for oil and gas depletion is worthwhile, even if just to focus people's minds on how to deal with the change.

Whether the oil peak happens over the next few months or next few decades, it's widely acknowledged that global conventional production of petroleum will see a sharp decline soon, with natural gas following thereafter. We know, in broad strokes, what needs to be done to keep that decline from turning into a global economic and political disaster, and the major recommendations -- such as an aggressive shift to alternative energies and transportation technologies, widespread adoption of higher-efficiency building designs, greater reliance on organic/local/smart agriculture techniques, and the like -- parallel what's needed to forestall the worst effects of global warming-induced climate disruption.

So how do we do it?

[The ASPO] has a fascinating proposal, one that could reduce the risk of oil wars and economic ruin. It's simple to understand, and its logic is compelling. [The ASPO] call this proposal the Oil Depletion Protocol, as it is a formalization of what is already happening worldwide: oil reserves are declining, and all too soon demand will overtake production.

What makes the Oil Depletion Protocol (ODP) particularly appealing is that it doesn't require everyone to participate to be effective. Any nation -- petroleum producer or importer alike -- adopting the ODP would benefit. Of course, the more nations that choose to adopt the Protocol, the better, in terms of both their particular and the global future.

The ODP is simple and, as Heinberg notes, the exact phrasing of it is less important than its broader concept. Producing countries will limit themselves to producing at or below their current "depletion rate" (defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount left to produce); this would gradually slow production, allowing the exporters to wean themselves off of oil and shift to a non-extractive economic base. Importing countries, in turn, would act to reduce their imports every year by a set amount; Heinberg proposes that amount should be the current World Depletion Rate, or 2.59% annually.