An Inconvenient Truth  

Alan Greenspan has made one of his rare public utterances that contain some meaningful scrap of information (must be getting lazy now the financial markets no longer hand on his every word), noting that the Iraq war is "largely" about oil. No kidding.

Graham Paterson, Sunday Times (UK)

AMERICA’s elder statesman of finance, Alan Greenspan, has shaken the White House by declaring that the prime motive for the war in Iraq was oil.

In his long-awaited memoir, to be published tomorrow, Greenspan, a Republican whose 18-year tenure as head of the US Federal Reserve was widely admired, will also deliver a stinging critique of President George W Bush’s economic policies.

However, it is his view on the motive for the 2003 Iraq invasion that is likely to provoke the most controversy. “I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil,” he says.

More on Greenspan's views on energy and the future from the Wall Street Journal:

He devotes chapters to each of the major economic challenges facing the U.S. and the world. On energy, he recommends more use of nuclear power, and he predicts efforts to reduce global warming with carbon caps or taxes will fail. Rising income inequality could undo "the cultural ties that bind our society" and even lead to "large-scale violence." The remedy, he says, is not higher taxes on the rich but improved education, which can be helped by paying math teachers more.

...In coming years, as the globalization process winds down, he predicts inflation will become harder to contain. Recent increases in the price of imports from China and a rise in long-term interest rates suggest "the turn may be upon us sooner rather than later."

Michael Shank and Roscoe Bartlett have an article on the energy bills navigating the US Congress - Pioneers Can Secure Our Future - noting that renewable energy sources and fuel efficiency (particularly for vehicles) are the key aspects to focus on for energy security.

Russia, Canada, and the United States are rushing to the North Pole in a pioneer-like land grab for an estimated 25 percent of the world's unknown oil and gas reserves. One wonders when we will learn. Oil and gas are not forever. We need to change course and save some to ensure a secure energy future.

The National Petroleum Council recently warned, in "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy," that oil and gas supplies are unlikely to meet projected world demand in 2030. Rather than depleting finite fossil fuels upon which future generations will depend, and considering their effects upon our planet's environment, we must invest in efficiency and renewable alternatives.

This month, Congress has an opportunity to show real teeth on this matter as it reconciles Senate and House omnibus energy bills in conference. Since electricity and transportation are the top two sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., at 34 and 26 percent, we think the final bill should contain the following two components:

First, the Conference Report should include a flexible, affordable, achievable national Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) for electricity generation. The Senate version failed to include Sen. Jeff Bingaman's proposal for a 15 percent RPS or Sen. Pete Domenici's 20 percent RPS, but has three times previously approved a 10 percent RPS. The House bill was able to eke in a bipartisan15 percent RPS. It requires only investor-owned utilities to produce 15 percent of their electricity from wind, solar, biomass, and certain other sources by the year 2020 -- with 4 percent achievable through energy efficiency.

REQUIRING SOME but not all utilities to generate 15 percent of their electricity from certain sources and limiting energy efficiency is controversial. Some regions will have an easier time extracting sun, wind, or biomass than others. For many utilities and states, the renewable infrastructure does not exist, or if it does, it is negligible. So how to reduce the transition cost and gain the support of renewable-light states, utilities, and their customers and the members of Congress who represent them?

Since we depend upon energy and global warming impacts all of us, teamwork is critical. To capture support for a national RPS, changes may be necessary. It should be affordable for low-renewable utilities to purchase energy credits from high-renewable states to meet the 15-percent mark by 2020. We need to prevent driving energy-intensive, high-paying manufacturing jobs overseas. Low-renewable states could be afforded a higher ceiling on energy efficiency, perhaps double or triple the 4-percent limit. Some argue all utilities should be included to level the playing field. Others advocate reducing the goal to 10 percent.

Second, the Conference Report should include stronger vehicle efficiency standards, better known as CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy). Since 1975, Congress has not significantly adjusted CAFE standards. At present, passenger cars are required to get 27.5 miles per gallon while SUVs and light trucks are set at 22.2 mpg. Compare these numbers with the European Union's 2008 standard of 44.2 mpg, Japan's current average vehicle fuel economy of 45 mpg, and China's levels at mid-30s and rising. The Senate bill requires cars, trucks, and sport-utility vehicles to achieve 35 miles per gallon by 2020. The House, however, did not include a CAFE overhaul.

AMERICANS want a cleaner environment and are tired of paying more to drive to work. Lower-emission, higher-mileage vehicles, such as hybrids, are gaining in popularity. That is a key reason Toyota surpassed the U.S. Big Three as the world's top manufacturer. Foreign manufacturers now outsell American makers in the U.S. Incentivizing Detroit to go green will allow Americans to do our wallets and our pride good and make our domestic auto industry more competitive in world markets.

North Pole scavenging will get us little but a brief reprieve in the world's current race to the bottom of the oil barrel. More efficient and cleaner electricity and vehicles, given their combined 60-percent responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, would help the environment and Americans' pocketbooks. Americans need political pioneers, not the glacier flag-planting types, to ensure a secure energy future.

The SMH has an update on plans by local generators to build new coal and gas fired power plants inland - using recycled water from Sydney for cooling as a way of avoiding the drought induced lack of water. Anyone thinking with a timeframe of more than 5 years in mind would probably realise that wind and solar thermal generation will be a lot less financially risky - carbon pricing is inevitable...

TURNING the rivers inland has long been the mantra of those seeking to develop the plains west of the Great Dividing Range. Now, in a modern twist, Delta Electricity has drawn up plans to use recycled water from Sydney's west for its power expansion plans at Lithgow. At an estimated cost of up to $400 million, Delta wants to tap recycled Sydney water for the long-delayed expansion to its Mount Piper power station. Originally planned with four units, only two units were built. With site works already done and work on a coal unloading facility under way, installing extra generation capacity at Mount Piper would be the fastest expansion option for the state's coal-fired power industry.

In his report, Professor Tony Owen argues that the state needs additional baseload power station capacity - power stations that operate day and night - by 2013-14. To meet this deadline means development applications need to be ready to submit by the end of this year, a very tight deadline given that it will take many months yet for the Government to finalise its power privatisation policy.

Delta has been working on plans for two new power generators with capacity of 750Mw at a cost of $2.7 billion, or two 1000Mw units costing $3.4 billion. Central to these plans is tapping recycled water from western Sydney for use in cooling towers. Delta would use "ultra super-critical" pulverised fuel coal technology, which produces far less carbon emissions than existing technology.

Macquarie Generation has also put forward plans for two new 900Mw coal-fired units, Bayswater B, in the Hunter Valley, at a prospective cost of $3.75 billion. Given that Delta has civil works in place for new units at Mount Piper and has its coal supply upgrade under way, it is probably the frontrunner in the coal-fired stakes, although a final decision will hinge on carbon prices.

For gas, TruEnergy - controlled by Hong Kong's China Light and Power - is building a 400Mw power plant in Wollongong and plans to double this to 800Mw. This would put it in a strong position to move quickly to install new gas capacity, depending on the fallout from the Owen report. Among state-owned entities, Delta is finalising plans for gas-fired plants near Nowra and in Marulan, and also in Munmorah on the Central Coast. Macquarie Generation is waiting for approvals to proceed with a gas-fired plant in the Hunter Valley. Retailer EnergyAustralia plans a 400Mw power station, also in Marulan, and is talking to International Power about a joint operating arrangement.

Meanwhile the state government has announced permanent water restrictions for NSW. How about this for an idea - use the recycled water for water supplies and don't build water hungry coal fired power stations that pump out carbon dioxide that further intensifies our never ending drought which makes water less available ? I know politicians don't understand simple concepts like feedback loops but surely someone behind the scenes must understand these decisions make no sense at all...

The NSW Government has announced permanent water restrictions for Sydney in a bid to deal with climate change. Called Long-term Water Saving Rules, they will remain in effect regardless of dam levels or downgrades of the current water restrictions scheme. The rules include restrictions on watering between 10am and 4pm (AEST), the fitting of trigger nozzles on hoses and no hosing of hard surfaces.

Premier Morris Iemma today said the permanent restrictions reflected the Government's commitment to conserving water in the long term. "The lessons that have been learnt about managing water are now going to become part of the way we will manage water in the future," he told reporters in Sydney. "We know that climate change is real, it's here and the changes brought by climate change are going to change the way we use water." He said Sydneysiders would not notice any immediate changes because existing level three water restrictions are more severe than the long-term ones.

Mr Iemma said the measures would secure water usage over the next 30 years, with experts predicting lower rainfalls, hotter days and higher evaporation rates. "It means we have to be smarter about the way we use water," he said.

Smart about using water. Right.

Links:

* TreeHugger - Corporate Climate Response Conference: In Chicago. I can think of a good corporate climate response - no more political donations to any candidate or party that refuses to implement a carbon tax within 3 years.
* SMH - Green housing catches on
* SMH - Mudgee Coal Mine fuels the fire as we dig deeper into debt
* SMH - Power Hungry
* STCWA - Carmakers switching to electric motors
* STCWA - Canada Drops speeds to 100 km/h
* STCWA - New Australian book on peak oil
* Global Public Media - ASPO's Stuart McCarthy on peak oil hitting the Australian mainstream
* Net Oil Exports - Net Oil Exports blog. Tracking news about oil export volumes.
* Biopact - Japan launches 'Green Cool Asia' plan: boosting food security through biofuels
* News And Policy - Dennis Kucinich Blasts Democratic Party Establishment, Claims the Party is Scheming to Silence Him
* Seattle Times - Presidential hopeful Ron Paul sees crises ahead for country
* Cryptogon - Northern Rock Shares Crash as Customers Queue. An old fashioned bank run ?
* Cryptogon - Alan Greenspan Claims Iraq War Was Really for Oil. Limited hang out ?