The SMH has an article on soaring power prices in NSW - which are rising even without a carbon tax or large scale investment in renewables, thanks to rising coal and gas prices and the large expense associated with upgrading the transmission network to cope with increasing demand - Nothing Will Stop Power Prices Soaring

ELECTRICITY prices are set to almost double, regardless of the election campaign and the sale of power assets.

An Australian Industry Group study released today finds the annual bill for a typical Sydney household will climb from $1257 to $2012 between 2009-10 and 2012-13 if the carbon price is set at $26 per tonne. Even with no carbon price, the bill is set to climb to $1705.

''A range of factors points relentlessly upward, from massive network investment to movements in international markets ...'' the group's chief executive, Heather Ridout, says in an introduction to the report. ''The NSW privatisation debate is unlikely to change this much.''

The study finds coal-fired generation will become more expensive whether or not Australia gets a carbon price as international prices for Australian coal climb. Paradoxically, weak international climate change policies could push Australian coal prices still higher.

Gas prices are also set to climb, with four large LNG export projects in Queensland set to drive eastern states prices towards world parity.

Giles Parkinson at The Climate Spectator has a look at the factors behind cutbacks to the NSW solar feed in tariff program - What really killed NSW solar?.

It seems that the massive take-up of rooftop solar under the excessively generous NSW feed-in tariff was not the middle class indulgence that it was thought to be.

The review into the Solar Bonus Scheme prepared for the Keneally government by the Department of Industry and Investment dismisses the perception that solar panels were a privilege reserved for affluent homeowners in Sydney’s northern and eastern suburbs and the inner west.

It turns out that the greatest demand in Sydney for solar PV under the scheme came from the western and south-western “Aussie battler” suburbs of Prospect, Seven Hills, Mt Druitt and Liverpool.

And the highest numbers per locality were recorded in country areas – Including Lismore, Coffs Harbour, Taree, Port Macquarie, Ballina and Gosford in the north, Bega in the south, Armidale and Wagga Wagga further inland, and in numerous localities in the central coast. The country areas had particularly large appetites, ordering systems of an average size of 2.8kW, compared to 1.9kW in the city.

And while some social service groups had complained about the inequality of the scheme, the report noted that the cost of solar panels had come down so quickly in the last 12 months – from $12,600 per kilowatt to $6,000/kW (they had been $17,000/kW in 2001) – that installations had been offered for zero up front cost by some retailers. Clearly, the battlers in the mortgage belt were quicker to seize a bargain that the toffs in the inner suburbs.

The report also reveals that the Keneally government appears to have ignored the report’s advice that a low cap on rooftop solar would cause the state’s solar industry to come to a shuddering halt.

The report recommended a cap to keep a lid on costs, but warned that placing too low a cap would create a boom-bust scenario, and a heavy loss of jobs.

The Keneally government chose a cap of 300MW – allowing just 100MW of new solar rooftop to be installed at the drastically reduced tariff – a target that its own bullish forecasts predict could be met within 12-15 months. ...

By the report’s own estimates, the 50MW that had been installed by June, 2010, had created 2,500 jobs, with 10 jobs created for every 1MW in manufacturing, 33 in installation, 3-4 in sales and marketing, and 1-2 in research. On those figures, the Keneally government’s decision to place a cap of 300MW would cost 15,000 in future installation jobs alone.

Given the upcoming election, the demographics of the scheme, the identified job sacrifices, and the fact that the NSW Labor government must now explain why new owners will now pay more for coal fired power than they will receive for emissions-free solar, this may have been a more heroic decision than was first realised.

Daniel Kogoy says the NSW government should have looked offshore for ideas - An advanced approach to renewables.

The NSW government’s decision on Wednesday to drastically cut the Solar Bonus Scheme will be disastrous for NSW’s renewable energy industry. Thousands of jobs will be slashed and hundred of megawatts of installed solar capacity sacrificed.

Before making its surprising decision, NSW should have looked to the renewable energy policy progression of Ontario, Canada for inspiration.

Ontario is fast developing into a renewable energy powerhouse. One year after the region introduced North America’s most advanced renewable energy feed-in tariff (FiT), the region has 15,000 MW of renewable energy projects in the pipeline, and is on its way to meet its target of 50,000 jobs in three years.

Ontario’s advanced FiT program covers large and small wind & solar, mini-hydro, landfill gas, biomass and biogas, and is linked to its commitment to shutdown its dirty coal-fired power plants (7,500 MW capacity before the orderly shutdown commenced) by the end of 2014, and also includes bonus payments for community-owned renewable energy projects.

Thousands of residents and organisations have already taken advantage of the scheme and due to the requirement for all wind and solar projects over 10kW to contain a minimum amount of goods and services from Ontario, thousands of jobs have already been generated across the region, as solar manufacturers and wind farm developers set up operations in Ontario.

What are advanced renewable energy FiTs? According to a 2001 European Court ruling they are not subsidies because they are not funded from government revenue. Instead they are a powerful policy mechanism that places an obligation on electricity utilities to make payments per kilowatt-hour for all the electricity generated by a renewable resource based on the cost of generation plus a reasonable profit (much like coal and gas fired power plants).

Advanced renewable energy FiTs are the most successful and egalitarian mechanisms to encourage rapid development of renewable energy technologies because they provide investors with the transparency, longevity and certainty they need to invest.

Advanced FiTs have been implemented in a number of countries including China, Brazil, Slovenia, Germany, Spain, Malaysia, Vermont, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, South Africa, Croatia, Italy and many others.

The SMH has a look at prospects for the coal seam gas industry being talked up in NSW - It's a gas as NSW industry comes of age.

DAVID Casey says the New South wales coal seam gas sector has long been regarded as the ''poor cousin'' of its northern neighbours. While it is a fair and frank assessment by the Eastern Star Gas managing director, it is interesting to note that it was NSW that is viewed as the birth place of the unconventional gas in Australia.

In the 1980s BHP tried to extract gas from its coalfields at Appin near Wollongong. The big Australian installed some gas turbines there, but its efforts floundered when it discovered carbon dioxide seeping into the gas stream. From there most of the hard yards were carried out in Queensland's Bowen Basin. Twenty years on and the Queensland coal seam gas sector is a $50 billion market darling, attracting interest from international oil and gas giants like BG, ConocoPhillips and Shell.

But what happened along the way to NSW?

Some blame a lack of government support, others point to the immaturity of the resources industry in NSW at the time and the different techniques needed to extract the gas.

Mr Casey says the NSW sector is overcoming historical impediments and forging its own path. He believes Eastern Star could be converting coal seam gas into liquefied natural gas for exporting out of Newcastle by 2014 - the same time as its more fancied rivals in Queensland. ...

A look at coal seam gas reserves in Australia shows the head start NSW has given Queensland. The May EnergyQuarterly by consultants Energy Quest rates Queensland's proved, probable and possible reserves (3P) at 47,383 petajoules, or about 89 per cent of the Australian coal seam gas industry. NSW has about 11 per cent of the market, or 5836 petajoules. Even accounting for Queensland's 22,634 petajoules of contingent supply and NSW's comparative 4692 petajoules, the gap is only slightly bridged.

While the Surat and Bowen basins in Queensland house the richest coal seam gas prospects in the state, in NSW it is split among four; the Gunnedah Basin in central NSW, the Gloucester Basin near Newcastle, the Clarence-Moreton Basin in the north-east corner of NSW and the Sydney Basin located around the NSW capital.

Graeme Bethune, chief executive of independent adviser Energy Quest, says unlike the crowded Queensland market where the four major proponents will reside in the Gladstone postcode, the NSW players have some breathing space between each other.

''AGL is in the Sydney and Gloucester basins, there is the Gunnedah Basin where Eastern Star and Santos are and Metgasco is in the Clarence-Moreton,'' he says. ''The NSW producers would say they are a fair way behind Queensland producers in terms of development and understanding.

''In fact, there is basically no production in NSW except by AGL at Camden. There have been some encouraging well flows but none have been able to get into commercial production and they have been working on it for some time.''

Mr Casey believes Eastern Star is ''a good 2½ years ahead'' of other rivals in NSW.

''Camden is the most mature coal seam gas field in NSW. It is the most mature coal seam gas field in NSW but it is limited in size and scope - I don't think even AGL would dispute that. AGL would be more focused on their Hunter Valley assets and for them to get to where we are up there they have a lot of work to do,'' he said. ''We are genuine in our pursuit of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) hub at Newcastle.

''We have the resource base and soon we will have reserves that will underpin major infrastructure development. The time differential compared to Queensland is not as different as everyone thinks. It is not an insignificant task, but we believe we could be delivering LNG out of Newcastle by 2014, which is the same time as Queensland.''

At that point, Eastern Star is looking to start exporting a million tonnes of LNG a year, increasing to 4 million tonnes a year. By then it is expecting to have also started supplying 20 petajoules over 20 years to the ERM Power generator at Wellington, NSW.

Energy Matters has a post on the NSW gross feed in tariff for solar power - Solar Bonus Scheme Boom In New South Wales.

While the New South Wales Solar Bonus Scheme doesn't kick off until January 1 next year; home solar power providers are already enjoying a sharp increase in orders for systems.

According to Max Sylvester of national solar solutions provider Energy Matters, the rush is already on. "There is usually some weeks of lead up time from the initial interest to installation and this may increase as more people become aware of the program and order systems."

"Given the Solar Bonus Scheme rate of 60 cents per kilowatt hour is guaranteed for seven years and applies to every kilowatt generated; people are understandably very eager to have a system installed sooner rather than later in order to maximize their returns. The activity in our instant online quoting system over the last couple of weeks from New South Wales has been phenomenal and we're ramping up our resources to ensure we can continue to meet the demand."

The NSW Solar Bonus Scheme is currently the most generous feed in tariff in Australia and combined with the Solar Credits rebate, home owners can recoup their investment in just a few years, depending on the installation location. Additionally, the Federal Government's Green Loans program can in some cases see home owners acquire a solar power system for free.

A typical residential solar power installation system has a capacity of around 1.5 kilowatts. According to information provided by the NSW Government., a solar power system of this size would generate approximately 2500 kWh annually, which translates to around $1500 return each year through the Solar Bonus Scheme.

The Australian reports that NSW based coal seam gas producers are floating the idea of an LNG export terminal at Newcastle. Its hard to see, given the medium term gas glut developing, that all the LNG plants proposed for Australia are going to go ahead any time soon. The Australian reports - Port in equation for LNG complex.

NSW coal seam gas producers have held talks with Newcastle Port to build a liquefied natural gas plant, using the coal harbour as a second east coast export hub.

The Australian has learned that Santos, one of five proponents of CSG-to-LNG plants at Queensland's Gladstone port, has spoken to authorities about the possibility of using Newcastle as an export port for up to 40 petajoules of CSG it has in the Gunnedah Basin in the state's northeast.

A Newcastle Port Corporation spokesman confirmed there had been "very preliminary" discussions with more than one party about building LNG plants at the harbour, but would not name them.

Eastern Star Gas, which also has ground in the Gunnedah Basin, said it was one of the parties that approached the port.

"It is at a very, very preliminary stage, but we are looking at the possibilities of Newcastle Port," Eastern Star managing director David Casey said. He also said Eastern Star was looking at supplying the gas, which the company is still shoring up, to domestic industry in the Newcastle region, among other possibilities.

Most analysts are reluctant to put a price on potential exports from the NSW CSG fields, which are a long way behind the rapidly developing Queensland fields. "It is not something we've focused on, but it makes sense that they (Santos and Eastern Star) would be investigating the potential," Patersons Securities analyst Scott Simpson said. "You could make the same arguments for an LNG hub in Newcastle as you could for one in Queensland."

Santos says it has huge undefined gas resources in NSW and plans to drill 20 exploration wells over 20,000sqkm of ground this year. The company believes its NSW ground could hold twice that of its LNG partner Petronas's in Queensland.

Alan Greenspan has made one of his rare public utterances that contain some meaningful scrap of information (must be getting lazy now the financial markets no longer hand on his every word), noting that the Iraq war is "largely" about oil. No kidding.

Graham Paterson, Sunday Times (UK)

AMERICA’s elder statesman of finance, Alan Greenspan, has shaken the White House by declaring that the prime motive for the war in Iraq was oil.

In his long-awaited memoir, to be published tomorrow, Greenspan, a Republican whose 18-year tenure as head of the US Federal Reserve was widely admired, will also deliver a stinging critique of President George W Bush’s economic policies.

However, it is his view on the motive for the 2003 Iraq invasion that is likely to provoke the most controversy. “I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil,” he says.

More on Greenspan's views on energy and the future from the Wall Street Journal:

He devotes chapters to each of the major economic challenges facing the U.S. and the world. On energy, he recommends more use of nuclear power, and he predicts efforts to reduce global warming with carbon caps or taxes will fail. Rising income inequality could undo "the cultural ties that bind our society" and even lead to "large-scale violence." The remedy, he says, is not higher taxes on the rich but improved education, which can be helped by paying math teachers more.

...In coming years, as the globalization process winds down, he predicts inflation will become harder to contain. Recent increases in the price of imports from China and a rise in long-term interest rates suggest "the turn may be upon us sooner rather than later."

Michael Shank and Roscoe Bartlett have an article on the energy bills navigating the US Congress - Pioneers Can Secure Our Future - noting that renewable energy sources and fuel efficiency (particularly for vehicles) are the key aspects to focus on for energy security.

Russia, Canada, and the United States are rushing to the North Pole in a pioneer-like land grab for an estimated 25 percent of the world's unknown oil and gas reserves. One wonders when we will learn. Oil and gas are not forever. We need to change course and save some to ensure a secure energy future.

The National Petroleum Council recently warned, in "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy," that oil and gas supplies are unlikely to meet projected world demand in 2030. Rather than depleting finite fossil fuels upon which future generations will depend, and considering their effects upon our planet's environment, we must invest in efficiency and renewable alternatives.

This month, Congress has an opportunity to show real teeth on this matter as it reconciles Senate and House omnibus energy bills in conference. Since electricity and transportation are the top two sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., at 34 and 26 percent, we think the final bill should contain the following two components:

First, the Conference Report should include a flexible, affordable, achievable national Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) for electricity generation. The Senate version failed to include Sen. Jeff Bingaman's proposal for a 15 percent RPS or Sen. Pete Domenici's 20 percent RPS, but has three times previously approved a 10 percent RPS. The House bill was able to eke in a bipartisan15 percent RPS. It requires only investor-owned utilities to produce 15 percent of their electricity from wind, solar, biomass, and certain other sources by the year 2020 -- with 4 percent achievable through energy efficiency.

REQUIRING SOME but not all utilities to generate 15 percent of their electricity from certain sources and limiting energy efficiency is controversial. Some regions will have an easier time extracting sun, wind, or biomass than others. For many utilities and states, the renewable infrastructure does not exist, or if it does, it is negligible. So how to reduce the transition cost and gain the support of renewable-light states, utilities, and their customers and the members of Congress who represent them?

Since we depend upon energy and global warming impacts all of us, teamwork is critical. To capture support for a national RPS, changes may be necessary. It should be affordable for low-renewable utilities to purchase energy credits from high-renewable states to meet the 15-percent mark by 2020. We need to prevent driving energy-intensive, high-paying manufacturing jobs overseas. Low-renewable states could be afforded a higher ceiling on energy efficiency, perhaps double or triple the 4-percent limit. Some argue all utilities should be included to level the playing field. Others advocate reducing the goal to 10 percent.

Second, the Conference Report should include stronger vehicle efficiency standards, better known as CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy). Since 1975, Congress has not significantly adjusted CAFE standards. At present, passenger cars are required to get 27.5 miles per gallon while SUVs and light trucks are set at 22.2 mpg. Compare these numbers with the European Union's 2008 standard of 44.2 mpg, Japan's current average vehicle fuel economy of 45 mpg, and China's levels at mid-30s and rising. The Senate bill requires cars, trucks, and sport-utility vehicles to achieve 35 miles per gallon by 2020. The House, however, did not include a CAFE overhaul.

AMERICANS want a cleaner environment and are tired of paying more to drive to work. Lower-emission, higher-mileage vehicles, such as hybrids, are gaining in popularity. That is a key reason Toyota surpassed the U.S. Big Three as the world's top manufacturer. Foreign manufacturers now outsell American makers in the U.S. Incentivizing Detroit to go green will allow Americans to do our wallets and our pride good and make our domestic auto industry more competitive in world markets.

North Pole scavenging will get us little but a brief reprieve in the world's current race to the bottom of the oil barrel. More efficient and cleaner electricity and vehicles, given their combined 60-percent responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, would help the environment and Americans' pocketbooks. Americans need political pioneers, not the glacier flag-planting types, to ensure a secure energy future.

The SMH has an update on plans by local generators to build new coal and gas fired power plants inland - using recycled water from Sydney for cooling as a way of avoiding the drought induced lack of water. Anyone thinking with a timeframe of more than 5 years in mind would probably realise that wind and solar thermal generation will be a lot less financially risky - carbon pricing is inevitable...

TURNING the rivers inland has long been the mantra of those seeking to develop the plains west of the Great Dividing Range. Now, in a modern twist, Delta Electricity has drawn up plans to use recycled water from Sydney's west for its power expansion plans at Lithgow. At an estimated cost of up to $400 million, Delta wants to tap recycled Sydney water for the long-delayed expansion to its Mount Piper power station. Originally planned with four units, only two units were built. With site works already done and work on a coal unloading facility under way, installing extra generation capacity at Mount Piper would be the fastest expansion option for the state's coal-fired power industry.

In his report, Professor Tony Owen argues that the state needs additional baseload power station capacity - power stations that operate day and night - by 2013-14. To meet this deadline means development applications need to be ready to submit by the end of this year, a very tight deadline given that it will take many months yet for the Government to finalise its power privatisation policy.

Delta has been working on plans for two new power generators with capacity of 750Mw at a cost of $2.7 billion, or two 1000Mw units costing $3.4 billion. Central to these plans is tapping recycled water from western Sydney for use in cooling towers. Delta would use "ultra super-critical" pulverised fuel coal technology, which produces far less carbon emissions than existing technology.

Macquarie Generation has also put forward plans for two new 900Mw coal-fired units, Bayswater B, in the Hunter Valley, at a prospective cost of $3.75 billion. Given that Delta has civil works in place for new units at Mount Piper and has its coal supply upgrade under way, it is probably the frontrunner in the coal-fired stakes, although a final decision will hinge on carbon prices.

For gas, TruEnergy - controlled by Hong Kong's China Light and Power - is building a 400Mw power plant in Wollongong and plans to double this to 800Mw. This would put it in a strong position to move quickly to install new gas capacity, depending on the fallout from the Owen report. Among state-owned entities, Delta is finalising plans for gas-fired plants near Nowra and in Marulan, and also in Munmorah on the Central Coast. Macquarie Generation is waiting for approvals to proceed with a gas-fired plant in the Hunter Valley. Retailer EnergyAustralia plans a 400Mw power station, also in Marulan, and is talking to International Power about a joint operating arrangement.

Meanwhile the state government has announced permanent water restrictions for NSW. How about this for an idea - use the recycled water for water supplies and don't build water hungry coal fired power stations that pump out carbon dioxide that further intensifies our never ending drought which makes water less available ? I know politicians don't understand simple concepts like feedback loops but surely someone behind the scenes must understand these decisions make no sense at all...

The NSW Government has announced permanent water restrictions for Sydney in a bid to deal with climate change. Called Long-term Water Saving Rules, they will remain in effect regardless of dam levels or downgrades of the current water restrictions scheme. The rules include restrictions on watering between 10am and 4pm (AEST), the fitting of trigger nozzles on hoses and no hosing of hard surfaces.

Premier Morris Iemma today said the permanent restrictions reflected the Government's commitment to conserving water in the long term. "The lessons that have been learnt about managing water are now going to become part of the way we will manage water in the future," he told reporters in Sydney. "We know that climate change is real, it's here and the changes brought by climate change are going to change the way we use water." He said Sydneysiders would not notice any immediate changes because existing level three water restrictions are more severe than the long-term ones.

Mr Iemma said the measures would secure water usage over the next 30 years, with experts predicting lower rainfalls, hotter days and higher evaporation rates. "It means we have to be smarter about the way we use water," he said.

Smart about using water. Right.

Links:

* TreeHugger - Corporate Climate Response Conference: In Chicago. I can think of a good corporate climate response - no more political donations to any candidate or party that refuses to implement a carbon tax within 3 years.
* SMH - Green housing catches on
* SMH - Mudgee Coal Mine fuels the fire as we dig deeper into debt
* SMH - Power Hungry
* STCWA - Carmakers switching to electric motors
* STCWA - Canada Drops speeds to 100 km/h
* STCWA - New Australian book on peak oil
* Global Public Media - ASPO's Stuart McCarthy on peak oil hitting the Australian mainstream
* Net Oil Exports - Net Oil Exports blog. Tracking news about oil export volumes.
* Biopact - Japan launches 'Green Cool Asia' plan: boosting food security through biofuels
* News And Policy - Dennis Kucinich Blasts Democratic Party Establishment, Claims the Party is Scheming to Silence Him
* Seattle Times - Presidential hopeful Ron Paul sees crises ahead for country
* Cryptogon - Northern Rock Shares Crash as Customers Queue. An old fashioned bank run ?
* Cryptogon - Alan Greenspan Claims Iraq War Was Really for Oil. Limited hang out ?