A War Profiteering Tax ?  

Posted by Big Gav in , , ,

Those who have been paying attention know that the world's largest oil reserves are in Iraq. Greg Palast is (in a way) one of those people, and he has a brief history lesson on the old "red line" agreement and many of the subsequent maneouvrings to make sure most of Iraq's oil has stayed right where it is.

I can’t make this up:

In a hotel room in Brussels, the chief executives of the world’s top oil companies unrolled a huge map of the Middle East, drew a fat, red line around Iraq and signed their names to it.

The map, the red line, the secret signatures. It explains this war. It explains this week’s rocketing of the price of oil to $134 a barrel.

It happened on July 31, 1928, but the bill came due now.

Barack Obama knows this. Or, just as important, those crafting his policies seem to know this. Same for Hillary Clinton’s team. There could be no more vital difference between the Republican and Democratic candidacies. And you won’t learn a thing about it on the news from the Fox-holes.

Let me explain.

In 1928, oil company chieftains (from Anglo-Persian Oil, now British Petroleum, from Standard Oil, now Exxon, and their Continental counterparts) were faced with a crisis: falling prices due to rising supplies of oil; the same crisis faced by their successors during the Clinton years, when oil traded at $22 a barrel.

The solution then, as now: stop the flow of oil, squeeze the market, raise the price. The method: put a red line around Iraq and declare that virtually all the oil under its sands would remain there, untapped. Their plan: choke supply, raise prices rise, boost profits. That was the program for 1928. For 2003. For 2008.

Again and again, year after year, the world price of oil has been boosted artificially by keeping a tight limit on Iraq’s oil output. Methods varied. The 1928 “Redline” agreement held, in various forms, for over three decades. It was replaced in 1959 by quotas imposed by President Eisenhower. Then Saudi Arabia and OPEC kept Iraq, capable of producing over 6 million barrels a day, capped at half that, given an export quota equal to Iran’s lower output.

In 1991, output was again limited, this time by a new red line: B-52 bombings by Bush Senior’s air force. Then came the Oil Embargo followed by the “Food for Oil” program. Not much food for them, not much oil for us.

In 2002, after Bush Junior took power, the top ten oil companies took in a nice $31 billion in profits. But then, a miracle fell from the sky. Or, more precisely, the 101st Airborne landed. Bush declared, “Bring’m on!” and, as the dogs of war chewed up the world’s second largest source of oil, crude doubled in two years to an astonishing $40 a barrel and those same oil companies saw their profits triple to $87 billion.

In response, Senators Obama and Clinton propose something wrongly called a “windfall” profits tax on oil. But oil industry profits didn’t blow in on a breeze. It is war, not wind, that fills their coffers. The beastly leap in prices is nothing but war profiteering, hiking prices to take cruel advantage of oil fields shut by bullets and blood.

I wish to hell the Democrats would call their plan what it is: A war profiteering tax. War is profitable business – if you’re an oil man. But somehow, the public pays the price, at the pump and at the funerals, and the oil companies reap the benefits.

Indeed, the recent engorgement in oil prices and profits goes right back to Bush-McCain “surge.” The Iraq government attack on a Basra militia was really nothing more than Baghdad’s leaping into a gang war over control of Iraq’s Southern oil fields and oil-loading docks. Moqtada al-Sadr’s gangsters and the government-sponsored greedsters of SCIRI (the Supreme Council For Islamic Revolution In Iraq) are battling over an estimated $5 billion a year in oil shipment kickbacks, theft and protection fees.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the surge-backed civil warring has cut Iraq’s exports by up to a million barrels a day. And that translates to slashing OPEC excess crude capacity by nearly half.

Result: ka-BOOM in oil prices and ka-ZOOM in oil profits. For 2007, Exxon recorded the highest annual profit, $40.6 billion, of any enterprise since the building of the pyramids. And that was BEFORE the war surge and price surge to over $100 a barrel.

It’s been a good war for Exxon and friends. Since George Bush began to beat the war-drum for an invasion of Iraq, the value of Exxon’s reserves has risen – are you ready for this? – by $2 trillion.

Nevertheless, oilman George W. Bush opposes it as does Bush’s man McCain. Senator McCain admonishes us that the po’ widdle oil companies need more than 80% of their windfall so they can explore for more oil. When pigs fly, Senator. Last year, Exxon spent $36 billion of its $40 billion income on dividends and special payouts to stockholders in tax-free buy-backs. Even the Journal called Exxon’s capital investment spending “stingy.”

At today’s prices Obama’s windfall tax, teeny as it is, would bring in nearly a billion dollars a day for the US Treasury. Clinton’s plan is similar. Yet the press’ entire discussion of gas prices is shifted to whether the government should knock some sales tax pennies off the oil companies’ pillaging at the pump.

More important than even the Democrats’ declaring that oil company profits are undeserved, is their implicit understanding that the profits are the spoils of war.
And that’s another reason to tax the oil industry’s ill-gotten gain. Vietnam showed us that foreign wars don’t end when the invader can no longer fight, but when the invasion is no longer profitable.

4 comments

Anonymous   says 10:29 PM

Everyone is looking for the magic bullet back to cheap oil. Would Iraq back at full production in a couple of years do more than offset the declines in other major exporters? And if their internal economy is allowed to come back by whatever government is eventually installed how much will actually get exported after Iraq's internal use. Iraq has a well educated population. They may end up with a very robust internal economy and using a lot of the oil that they pump.

I don't doubt that the oil companies are looking at prolonging the 'bumpy plateau' as long as they can. Once the world really figures out that something has to be done we'll all be investing a lot of money in energy sources that do not use their product. Not the best thing for their bottom line.

Its unfortunate that we live in a world where instead of planning for as soft a landing for the world population that we can, we are killing as many people as it takes to ensure the softest and most profitable landing for that 1/10 of one percent who pulls the strings.

I'm not looking for a "magic bullet back to cheap oil".

I've talked about the topic of Iraq and oil repeatedly for almost 4 years now as its important for people to understand the history of the place and why we have all those troops over there.

Of course, the fact that there are maybe 1.3 trillion barrels of oil left rather than 1 trillion barrels doesn't affect the long term issue - we need to kick the oil habit as fast as possible, not try and drag it out a little longer.

As for "soft landings", there is more clean, renewable energy out there than we will ever need - we just need to make a world where the population is well off, educated and (hopefully) has learnt to get along with one another - then the population will stabilise around 9 billion or so and things should be fairly sustainable.

Anonymous   says 10:56 PM

Not saying you are. But the meme is strong in the media that it is just 'shadowy manipulators' who are keeping 'our' oil so expensive.

We have troops in Iraq (and probably soon in Iran) because there is a strong financial incentive for international oil companies to not have national oil companies in control of the largest remaining sources of inexpensive to extract high grade oil.

As for the future. Think demand destruction. If the primary goal is maximum profitability then the poorest among us are going to fair very poorly over the coming decades. And major movements to clean renewable energy sources require huge investments. Tough to make in a climate where the major financial flows are going to international players with a vested interest in these investments not being made.

The best scenario would have us building the future while there is still relatively abundant and relatively cheap oil available to do it. If we continue to simply ensure it is pumped to the highest near term bidder that opportunity will soon be lost.

Agreed - everything you said is true.

However, for the time being at least, there is plenty of capital out there and it needs to be motivated to develop alternatives as quickly as possible.

The energy industry is huge (and has increased rapidly in size in recent years), so it poses a very tempting morsel for those who can wrest away its markets, which is why I've long hoped the technology industry will decide to eat big oil.

It won't do so for altuistic reasons (at least not entirely) - it will (hopefully) do so because there is more money to be made in energy than there is in traditional technology investments...

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