Fighting on empty  

Australian foreign affairs magazine "The Diplomat" has a look at the Australian Defence Force's response to peak oil and notes that they are more than a little reluctant to comment on it officially (guess we won't see any more pieces like this then) - Fighting on empty.

The Australian Defence Force consumes annually 125 million litres of diesel and 200 million litres of aviation fuel, according to government statistics. The strategy and capabilities of the ADF are dependent on oil and they are exposed to the same price fluctuations that are wreaking havoc on business and household budgets.

Considering the extensive lead time and lifespan for Defence capability acquisitions and the poor projections for oil, it is little surprise that there is a growing chorus of concern coming from within Defence ranks.

A number of serving officers and senior public servants have formed the independent Defence and Security Working Group under the umbrella of the Australian chapter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). “The decline in global oil supplies will have profound consequences for the ADF and civil border protection agencies. Australia has recently embarked on several large military and civil national security projects involving the acquisition of aircraft, vessels and land transport.

These decisions and force structure are underpinned by a continued supply of cheap oil. Rapidly increasing costs of fuel will have a significant impact on budgets and capabilities, which will require either additional funding to cover significant increased operating costs, or a reduction in the utilisation of these assets or other services to remain within budget,” says the group’s coordinator, Steven Daw.

Defence has recently purchased M1 Abrams battle tanks that are famous for poor fuel efficiency. Some configurations of the tank get 200 metres to the litre.

Fuel prices are already affecting law enforcement and military capabilities in some neighbouring countries. “The southern Philippines has a very ambitious scheme called ‘Coast Watch South’ for improved maritime surveillance and response, but already, before they even buy these new assets [boats], they are constrained on the amount of patrolling they can do by fuel costs,” says Dr Chris Rahman, a research fellow at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security.

Within our region, the Pacific Island nations are reliant on sea and air transport, and some are already plagued by political instability. Rising fuel prices and climate change caused by the combustion of fossil fuels will cause considerable strain in Oceania. In Asia, increased pressure will be experienced in countries such as Thailand, which imports 90 per cent of its fuel, according to Andrew McNamara, the Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation, and the spokesman for Australian ASPO. “As fuel prices continue to increase, there is every possibility that economic stability in some of our near neighbours will be threatened by social unrest brought about by cheap fuels no longer being cheap,” he says.

Most governments in Asia subsidise the domestic price of fuel but rising oil prices are forcing many Asian nations to reduce or remove fiscally untenable subsidies. Price hikes are affecting consumers with little financial elasticity, and countries such as Indonesia have already experienced fuel riots. On the question of hot conflicts over energy resources in the region, Andrew McNamara says, “I have no doubt of it.” He expects other nations will follow the precedent set by the United States. “The reality is the potential for direct military interventions attempting to secure energy, which of course is what Iraq is,” McNamara says. ...

Quite how the Australian military intends to address concerns about oil is uncertain. The Department of Defence is playing its cards close to its chest, either because they are holding no cards, or they are unsure how to play them. Neil Burgess from Defence Public Affairs had no comment except to say that, “No one wants to talk to you.” There are, however, personnel within the ADF who are keen to speak frankly on this issue, but getting official approval is difficult.

The Defence Minister’s office responded to questions by saying: “The ADF at this point in time has no programs to research synthetic fuels, but it does leverage off its collaborations with the USA and UK via a number of multilateral forums.” These nations are “playing a significant role in promoting the uptake and commercialisation of alternative fuels and power generation, for example gas/coal/biomass to liquids for aviation fuels.”

Apart from these clues, the Department of Defence refuses to be drawn further on how it intends to maintain mobility until the release of the Defence White Paper due later in the year. The demise of cheap oil, in conjunction with the interrelated and inseparable issue of climate change, presents some unenviable challenges.