On The Road Again  

your blog is truely a blog of note, Can't wait to read about the internet thing.

Cheers!

Nice blog. Cool Topics. Congrats :)

I like your blog! waiting for new posts :)

Love it! Such an appropriate topic. Keep it up.

Let me know what you think about "The Road." I loved it - in the way that it can be loved. Look forward to reading your stuff...

Cool blog..

http://mega-small-downloads.blogspot.com

Your site has won a Blog of the Day Award (BOTDA)

Award Code

The award will go live on Saturday September 6, 2008

Thank you,

Bill Austin

http://blogofthedayawards.blogspot.com/2008/09/peak-energy.html

Hey Big Gav,
Great blog, it has been a comfort reading like minded words. Question for you though, do you have an overarching prediction of what technologies will emerge and when? One of the difficulties I find is getting a handle on momentum and timelines. For example, the economist last week posted an article on silicon prices and their predicted fall. This article highlights the issues facing the world in converting from fossil to alternative energy before it's too late. It takes 3 years to build capacity in silicon and even when they do, other supply constraints in the construction of solar panels will emerge. The economist quoted "rampant" growth of 45% per year in solar energy but even this growth rate leaves solar at 1% of world's enegry supply in 10 years.

Do you have an opinion on what the mix of world energy supplies will be in 2020?

With peak oil upon us and the decline in energy supplies about to become apparent, what do you think will replace it and when?

Hi Mark,

I don't normally do predictions more than a year or two out as there are too many variables in play and I'd be more likely to be doing"wishful thinking" than genuine prediction.

I'd like to see us phase out fossil fuels entirely over the next 20-30 years, with our energy needs coming from (in likely order of contribution):

- solar (mainly CSP but with a steadily increasing share of PV / thin film)
- wind
- geothermal
- hydro
- tidal / wave / ocean current
- biogas

Coupled with this we need to :

- expand the grid and make it a "smart grid"

- convert our transportation to use electricity rather than oil - electric vehicles (starting with plug in hybrids and steadily moving to all electric), and more public transport (mostly rail)

- redesign our urban areas to make them more walkable / bikeable

- adopt "cradle to cradle" style manufacturing methods

As for peak oil, my view is we aren't at a geological peak and we probably won't peak until 2015 at earliest - and decline will be slower than many people predict - so we have time to make the transition if we put our minds to it (that bit isn't guaranteed of course).

KK - my review of "The Road" will be done one day - its likely to be a long one though (I'm doing a 3 part story that revolves around the themes in Sixty Days, Sheep and The Road, so its not your usual book review).

The short version is - very powerful (and incredibly depressing, for the most part) but highly recommended.

Keep up the good work Gav. I'm a regular reader - and always look forward to shot of peak energy with my morning coffee