The Long Bet on Peak Travel

Posted by Big Gav in long now, peak oil, peak travel, transport

The Long Now has a post noting that the Long Bet about peak travel in the US has been won by Glen Raphael, who bet that there would be more passenger miles travelled in 2010 than there were in 2005 - Long Bet on Peak Travel.

The challenger - me - appears to have won the bet. But it was a real squeaker! The total was roughly 3 trillion miles for both years and there was a period of decline (associated with war and financial crash) in between that gave me a scare but 2010 finished slightly ahead.

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/10dectvt/page2.cfm (the december 2010 report) gives total vehicle miles traveled for the year as:

2005: 2,989,395
2010: 2,999,634

So 2010 was more, but it was very very close. See also this press release:

http://www.dot.gov/affairs/2011/fhwa0311.html

"Nation’s Highway Traffic Reaches Highest Level Since 2007"

2 comments

Tim Auld says 4:45 PM

Hey Big Gav,

Remember we have a similar bet on about vehicle miles traveled in the US. It was made in October 2008, the term being 15 years (2023). What was the prize? I think it was a 1/10 oz gold coin.

Cheers,
Tim

Big Gav says 5:11 PM

Hey Tim,

Must admit I'd forgotten the original bet - but I did a quick search and found this comment 1 year after the original bet, which agrees with your end date of October 2023 :

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009/10/one-or-two-years-on-they-have-learned.html

Cheers,
Gav.