May Global Oil Supply and the Libyan Mini Shock  

Posted by Big Gav in

Stuart at Early Warning has a look at global oil production in the wake of the Libyan war - May Global Oil Supply and the Libyan Mini Shock.

The above graph shows the latest available data from the three agencies that publish estimates of global oil production (the EIA, the IEA, and OPEC). According to the IEA, production increased by about 270 thousand barrels/day in May. However, as you can see, we have not yet made up the loss of Libyan oil in February and March. ...

The gap between the black line (average of the three agency's data) and the purple line (approx projection of what might have happened absent the Libyan revolution) is about 1.6mbd, or about 1.8% of global production - call it 2% to this level of accuracy. Note that the 1.6mbd from the graph above is in excellent agreement with the level of Libyan oil production before the revolution.

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