World Energy Reports, 2014  

Posted by Big Gav in , , , , , , ,

All of this year's major energy reports are now out :

Euan at Energy Matters has a summary of the BP report - Global Energy Trends – BP Statistical Review 2014.

  • Global primary energy supply has continued to grow, mainly fossil fuels (FF), mainly coal. FF supply was up 183 million tonnes oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2013 while new renewable supply was up 42 mtoe from 2012.
  • In 2003, FF accounted for 87% of global primary energy consumption. In 2013, FF accounted for 87% of global primary energy consumption. This is testimony to the absolute failure of energy policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions.
  • In 2003, new renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels etc) accounted for 0.82% of total primary energy and by 2013 this had grown to 2.69%. In 2003, nuclear power accounted for 6.01% and this fell to 4.40% in 2013. The 1.87% growth in share of new renewables almost matches the 1.61% fall in the share of nuclear power. On the CO2 account, low emissions nuclear power has been replaced by low emissions renewable energy. The actual energy substitutions are a little more complex.
  • Oil consumption has been on a gently rising plateau since 2005 (Figure 1) and oil is declining in importance in the global energy mix (Figure 2). The fall in oil’s share has been picked up by coal and the only simple way for this substitution to occur is for oil fired power generation to close. Once all oil fired generation has been closed, expect severe upwards pressure on the oil price.

Robert Rapier also has some articles on the BP report - World Sets New Oil Production and Consumption Records and The US and Russia are Gas Giants.

First a note about BP’s definitions. “Oil” in the BP Statistical Review (BPSR) is defined as ”crude oil, tight oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids”, but excludes biofuels and liquid fuels produced from coal or natural gas. Consumption numbers do include all liquid fuels, so consumption numbers are always greater than production numbers, but this is merely an artifact of BP’s definitions.

Global oil production advanced in 2013 by 557,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching a new all-time high of 86.8 million bpd (an increase of 0.6 percent over 2012). After declining in 2009, global crude oil production has now increased 4 years in a row. But as I noted in last month’s short article, while global oil production did indeed set a new record, the US production increase alone was 1.1 million bpd. Thus, outside the US global production actually declined by 554,000 bpd. ...

In 2013 global natural gas production advanced 1.1% to a new all-time high of 328 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd). Except for a one-year decline in 2008-2009, global gas production has risen fairly steadily for about three decades, and production has more than doubled during that time span.

Power magazine also has a look at the BP report - Above-Average Growth Reported for Renewables in 2013.

According to the report, world power generation grew 2.5% in 2013, slightly up over 2012 (which saw 2.2% growth over 2011) but below the 10-year trend (3.3%). And while electricity generation fell for the third year in a row in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), it surged 4.8% in non-OECD countries. China, followed by the U.S., was the world’s largest power generator (Figure 1). Meanwhile, India overtook Japan to take third place. ...

Nuclear saw its first increase since 2010, climbing 0.9%. Nuclear consumption grew in the U.S., China, and Canada, but was offset by declines in South Korea, Ukraine, Spain, Russia, and Japan—whose nuclear output has fallen 95% since 2010 with nearly all of its reactors still offline after the Fukushima disaster.

Renewables generation, on the other hand, soared 16.3% and accounted for a record 5.3% share of global power generation, said the report. Globally, wind energy (up 20.7%) again accounted for more than half of renewable power generation growth, and solar power generation grew even more rapidly (33%).

The BS has a snippet from the IEA report looking at shifts in oil consumption - World oil's pivot to Asia.

In the Reference case projection, world liquid fuels consumption increases 38 per cent from 87 million barrels per day in 2010 to 119 MMbbl/d in 2040. China, India, and other developing countries in Asia account for 72 per cent of the net world increase in liquid fuels consumption, with Middle East consumers accounting for another 13 per cent. Most liquid fuel demand is for industrial uses and transportation.

In the United States, Europe, Japan, and other mature industrialised economies, liquid fuel demand has leveled off and is projected to slowly decline. The combined effects of several factors have slowed or even reversed the growth in liquid fuels use. These factors include sustained high oil prices, efficiency standards for vehicles and equipment together with high taxation of motor fuels, price-driven fuel switching towards non-oil fuels outside of transportation, vehicle saturation, as well as structural changes in factors such as demographics and consumer behavior.

The BS also has an update on geothermal power in the US - Geothermal expands out of California.

EGS plants are currently being developed in several countries, and the first commercial-scale plant in the United States, the Desert Peak East pilot project in Nevada, began operating in 2013.

There are currently 64 operating conventional geothermal power plants in the United States, accounting for nearly 2700 megawatts of total capacity at the end o 2013. Over three-fourths of US geothermal power generation in 2013 was in California, largely because of favourable geothermal resources, policy, and market conditions in the state. The largest group of geothermal power plants in the world, a complex called the Geysers, located in Northern California, has more than 700 MW of capacity.

Since 2001, only seven of 30 new plants exceeding 1 MW have been built in California, where most available low-cost geothermal resources have previously been developed. Sixteen of those 30 plants built after 2001 are in Nevada, with the remainder in Oregon, Idaho, Utah, and Hawaii. Most of the newer plants are relatively small, and while geothermal generation rose 11 per cent between 2008 and 2013, the geothermal share of total US electricity generation has remained consistently around 0.4 per cent since 2001

ReNew Economy has a post on the IEA reports' comments on solar power and renewable energy - Only solar PV is exceeding expectations for clean energy

The main message in the new Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report from IEA is that sustained growth in renewable energy is at risk. Governments, therefore, need to strengthen efforts to facilitate growth of renewables in all energy sectors. In the power sector, both hydropower, wind and bioenergy fall short of the deployment speed consistent with IEAs 2 Degree Scenario. Solar PV, says IEA, is «the only source expected to exceed global 2DS targets by 2020, boosted by cost declines and an increasingly rapid scale-up in non-OECD markets.»

This is troublesome news for renewables in general, but encouraging news for solar energy. And having studied the underlying assumptions in the report, I am tempted to add: This is just the beginning of the solar awakening of IEA; be ready for better news next year.

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